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OPINION: Why Duterte Is So Popular

Richard Javad Heydarian

Populism derives its power not from actual performance per se, but the appealing performance of the actual. From India, Indonesia to Turkey and Russia, the main lesson one derives upon closer observation is that charismatic politicians across emerging markets maintain popular derive political capital not primarily based on delivering on their core promises, but instead convincing people that they are sincere and strong-willed leaders, who are bent on dismantling the Ancient Régime and bringing about a brighter future.As Indian essayist Pankaj Mishra perspicaciously observes, the enigma of populist resurgence <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-03-13/how-to-understand-modi-s-magical-political-appeal">lies in the</a> “emotional and psychological allure” of charismatic leadership, who -- through their “powerful rhetoric and imagery” anchored by “mastery of digital communications” -- have managed to firmly supplant the cold, calculating, yet unappealing rational-technocratic governance across emerging market democracies.Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a controversial and tough-talking former local government statesman, has managed to score his biggest electoral victory yet during the <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21718705-prime-minister-regains-his-momentum-bjp-wins-312-out-403-seats-indias-biggest">latest elections in the state</a> of Uttar Pradesh. His party, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), won 312 out of 403 seats in a landslide election victory that is broadly interpreted as an affirmative referendum on the Modi administration.Beyond the scale of Modi’s breathtaking electoral victory -- largest since the time of Indira Ghandi – is the fact that Modi has largely fallen short on delivering on his key economic promises, whether in terms of growth, poverty-alleviation or employment-generation.If anything, in recent months, Modi has come under vigorous criticism for a controversial and highly controversial ‘<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/annrutledge/2017/01/18/modis-risky-revolution-how-the-indian-prime-ministers-demonetization-move-could-backfire/#36f517385b4f">demonetization</a>’ policy, which adversely affected a highly cash-based-economy and tens of millions of poor families, who struggled to secure new bank notes on time.During a recent visit to New Delhi, where I met senior officials and some experts, I was told how many people around the country almost starved to death due to the disruptive policy, while stock markets were in mayhem. It would possibly take years before the Indian economy could fully recover.And yet, Modi and his BJP party maintains the commanding heights of Indian politics and public opinion, largely because of his image as a sincere, decisive ‘man of the people’, a low-caste individual from humble beginnings, who made it to the top due to his diligence and competence as a leader.What is even more interesting is the case of Russia, a has-been superpower that is in dire economic straits, due to chronic corruption, mismanagement and Western sanctions over Moscow’s adventurist campaigns in Ukraine and the post-Soviet space in recent years.After a decade of boom, mainly due to high oil prices, the Russian economy <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21709028-how-contain-vladimir-putins-deadly-dysfunctional-empire-threat-russia">has been contracting</a> in recent years, adversely affecting real wages and savings, basic benefits and pensions, and foreign exchange reserves of the once bright shining star of emerging markets.As economist Ruchir Sharma <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Breakout-Nations-Pursuit-Economic-Miracles/dp/0393345408">notes</a>, Russia is today nothing more than a hydrocarbon power with few, if any, globally competitive industries. And yet, latest polls suggest that Putin, a former Saint Petersburg official, is as popular as ever. After more than a decade-and-a-half in power, he has a <a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/207491/economic-problems-corruption-fail-dent-putin-image.aspx?g_source=World&amp;g_medium=lead&amp;g_campaign=tiles">whopping 81 percent</a> trust rating.Then, of course, is the astonishing case of Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who, after a decade-and-a-half in power similar to Putin, is now enjoying his<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/30/welcome-to-demokrasi-how-erdogan-got-more-popular-than-ever"> highest approval rating</a> ever. Never mind that Turkey’s once-booming <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21689874-turkey-performing-well-below-its-potential-erdoganomics">economy is slowing down</a>, age-old balance of payment issues are coming back with a vengeance, and the Turkish society is most polarized since the height of Cold War, when coups and protests were a normal affair.Indonesia’s Jokowi, who has overseen a slow-down in the country’s economy, is also <a href="http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2017/03/22/jokowis-approval-rating-reaches-66-percent-survey.html">enjoying high approval ratings</a> after more than two years in power. He is broadly expected to be re-elected into office quite handily.And this brings me to the case of President Rodrigo Duterte, who, to be fair, is yet to finish his honeymoon year in office. Based on my recent travels to Brussels, Canberra, and Washington DC, it seems that he is broadly seen in negative terms in the West.Critics will of course point out that under Duterte, economy-wise, the situation is far from impressive: while growth rates is still robust, business <a href="http://www.rappler.com/business/153629-business-confidence-dips-q4-2016-q1-2017">confidence is down</a>, investors are jittery, <a href="http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/dutertes-brutal-drug-war-could-see-philippines-credit-rating-downgraded-1583332">credit rate agencies</a> are warning of regulatory uncertainty and potential downgrade, big-ticket infrastructure projects are in limbo, and the Philippine Peso is the <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-03/boom-time-for-philippines-spells-more-hardship-for-laggard-peso">worst performing in Asia</a>. Not to mention criticism of Duterte’s war on drugs and human rights record by the mainstream media, Catholic Church, and civil society groups at home, and the Western world without.And yet, Duterte enjoys among the <a href="http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/859906/duterte-approval-rating-at-83-pulse-asia">highest approval ratings</a> by any leader on earth. My hunch is: We are experiencing the same phenomenon as in India, Indonesia, Russia and Turkey. Duterte’s strongest suit is his uncanny ability to communicate a sincere, strong-willed leadership, which cares for the ordinary Filipinos, is tough on the (liberal) oligarchy, and just needs more time, patience and support to transform a broken nation.After all, majority of voters nowadays -- contrary to the rational choice theory and common social science indicators -- are primarily not motivated by utility-maximization, but instead their emotional-personal affinity to the leadership.Fed-up with broken promises and business-as-usual politicians, a large section of the electorate is placing all its hopes in outside-the-box leaders. And this is where Duterte, like Modi, Erdogan, Jokowi, and Putin, is, so far, a big success.

President Duterte’s strongest suit is his uncanny ability to communicate a sincere, strong-willed leadership, which cares for the ordinary Filipinos, is tough on the (liberal) oligarchy, and just needs more time, patience and support to transform a broken nation.

President Duterte’s strongest suit is his uncanny ability to communicate a sincere, strong-willed leadership, which cares for the ordinary Filipinos, is tough on the (liberal) oligarchy, and just needs more time, patience and support to transform a broken nation.