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Alert Level 3 in NCR seen to have 'minor' effect on economic growth

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Jessica Fenol and Raine Musngi, ABS-CBN News

<div class="embed-wrap"><figure data-feedback="fb:likes,fb:comments"><img alt="Scores of people shop at the Phase 1 market in Bagong Silang, Caloocan on Dec. 31, 2021, New Year’s eve. Jonathan Cellona, ABS-CBN news/File" src="https://sa.kapamilya.com/absnews/abscbnnews/media/2022/news/01/04/20211231-bagong-silang-market-new-years-eve-jc-9.jpg"/><figcaption>Scores of people shop at the Phase 1 market in Bagong Silang, Caloocan on Dec. 31, 2021, New Year’s eve. <em>Jonathan Cellona, ABS-CBN news/File</em></figcaption></figure></div><p>MANILA - The recent reimposition of the stricter COVID-19 Alert Level 3 in Metro Manila could have &quot;minor&quot; impact on the economy even as the Trade Department is estimating a P200 million loss, an economist said Tuesday.</p><p>The National Capital Region was placed under the said alert status from Monday until Jan. 15 after the number of new COVID-19 cases increased significantly amid the potential community transmission of the omicron variant.</p><p>The tighter restrictions in the capital region could cut the 6 to 7 percent potential economic growth this year by only .1 to .2 percent, UA&amp;P Director of Strategic Business Economic Program Vic Abola told ANC. </p><p>&quot;In terms of overall effect in the economy, I think it will be a minor reduction. I’m looking at .1 percent to .2 percent. What is more significant really is the typhoon that hit the south,&quot; he said. </p><p>Metro Manila, home to around 13.5 million people, accounts for about a third of the national economy.</p><p>This year, the government expects the economy to expand by 7 to 9 percent, while the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank have set their forecast to 6 percent and 5.8 percent, respectively.</p><p>The economy could revert to its <a href="https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/11/09/21/philippine-gdp-likely-return-to-pre-pandemic-level-by-2022">pre-pandemic level</a> in the fourth quarter, Abola said, in line with the projection of Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick Chua. </p><ul class="op-related-articles">	<li><a href="https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/01/03/22/alert-3-to-cause-p200-m-economic-loss-affect-100k-jobs">DTI: Tighter COVID-19 curbs to cause P200 million economic loss, affect 100k jobs</a></li>	<li><a href="https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/12/10/21/ph-economy-seen-to-grow-by-65-percent-in-2022">Philippine economy seen to grow by 6.5 percent in 2022: Nomura</a></li></ul><p>The country&#x27;s debt-to-GDP ratio also remains low compared to its peers, with the government&#x27;s debt paying capacity buoyed by dollar remittances from overseas Filipino workers (OFW) and the Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) sector, Abola said. </p><p>Meanwhile, inflation, which is hovering above the government target, could be back within the 2 to 4 percent range &quot;sooner&quot; than expected. </p><p>The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) earlier said the consumer price index could settle within the target band by the middle of the year.</p><p>But with elevated price pressures, the BSP is also widely expected to start tightening monetary policy after holding off on interest rate hike for the entire 2021. </p><p>Fitch Solutions earlier said the BSP could implement a staggered interest rate hike of about 75-basis points, which could bring the benchmark borrowing rate to 2.75 percent. </p><p>The country&#x27;s interest rate is at its record low of 2 percent. </p><ul class="op-related-articles">	<li><a href="https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/12/17/21/bsp-seen-to-gradually-tighten-monetary-policy-in-2022">BSP seen to &#x27;gradually&#x27; tighten monetary policy in 2022, says Fitch Solutions</a></li>	<li><a href="https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/12/16/21/bsp-maintains-interest-rate-at-2-percent">Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas maintains interest rate at 2 pct as economy sits on &#x27;firmer ground&#x27;</a></li></ul><figure class="op-interactive"><iframe allow="autoplay; fullscreen" frameBorder="0" height="100%" id="ivsplayer01" scrolling="no" src="https://player.ivideosmart.com/ivsplayer/v4/dist/html/iframe-src.html?iframeid=ivsplayer01&amp;key=e8c22c015ca9eafa76f1e3edfa03c603&amp;spid=3001339&amp;vid=1882994" width="100%"></iframe></figure><div class="iwantbar">Watch more in <a href="//www.iwantv.com.ph/">iWantv</a> or <a href="//tfc.tv/">TFC.tv</a></div>

The recent reimposition of the stricter COVID-19 Alert Level 3 in Metro Manila could have 'minor' impact on the economy even as the DTI is estimating a P200 million loss, an economist said Tuesday.

Alert Level 3 in NCR seen to have 'minor' effect on economic growth

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Alert Level 3 in NCR seen to have 'minor' effect on economic growth

Jessica Fenol and Raine Musngi,

ABS-CBN News

Published January 04, 2022 11:06 AM PHT

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Updated January 04, 2022 12:22 PM PHT

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GDP

gross domestic product

economy

economic growth

inflation

consumer price index

BSP

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