MANILA -- The price of palay (unmilled rice) is going up due to pests in some parts of the country, according to agriculture group Samahang Industriya ng Agrikultura (SINAG).

This is driving rice prices up in Metro Manila markets, the group said.

"Ang presyo kasi ng palay is P30 [per kilo]. So ang deliver sa Manila is P48 to 50," said SINAG President Rosendo So.

(The palay price is P30. So it's being delivered to Metro Manila at P48 to P50.)

They are attributing the increase in the price of palay to pests in Isabela, which is one of the country's biggest rice-producing provinces.

"Yung mga area ng Isabela kasi, tinamaan ng stem borer, bumaba ang ani nila. Yung iba naman sa lowland areas, eastern part, medyo mababa ang ani. Ang expected na harvest hindi ganon kalaki. Ang Isabela millers and traders, bumili sa Pangasinan at Nueva Ecija kaya nag-iba presyo," So said.

(Areas in Isabela were affected by the stem borer, so their harvest went down. In the lowland areas, in the eastern part, harvest is low. The harvest isn't that big. Isabela millers and traders are buying in Pangasinan and Nueva Ecija so the prices are different.)

The stem borer is an insect that is a serious pest on rice, but may also affect corn. Once infested by the stem borer, rice husks will turn out empty.

SINAG said this will cause a drop in palay production especially in Isabela. Before this, the Department of Agriculture forecasted a record-high palay production this harvest season.

"Kami rin ineexpext namin na record high ng harvest. Pero sa ground, yung iba tinamaan ng stem borer in which makita mo may palay pero walang laman so yung harvest expected to drop," he added.

(We were expecting a record harvest. But on the ground, some plants were attacked by stem borers, so the palay is empty inside, so the harvest is expected to drop.)

SINAG earlier called for the reimposition of a price cap on well-milled rice.

"Two weeks ago diba, nabanggit na tumataas ang farmgate price, dapat magkaroon ng cap, pero hindi nangyari ang cap so tuluy-tuloy ang pagtaas ng presyo, pagbili ng palay," he added.

(Two weeks ago, it was mentioned that farmgate prices increased. There must be a cap, but the imposition didn't push through, so prices are rising.)

Asked about their inflation outlook, So said it would be hard to predict if this will affect succeeding inflation figures.

Inflation eased in October to 4.9 percent, as food inflation slowed down to 7.1 percent.

Rice inflation was at 13.2 percent in October versus 17.9 percent in September.

• Inflation eases to 4.9 percent in October

Prices of rice and egg may increase, but the farmgate prices of pork, vegetable, and chicken are stable, he said.

The DA meanwhile said it expects the price of rice to remain stable.

"Mino-monitor namin para masigurado na hindi talaga tataas kasi maganda yung supply at yung farm gate prices na sinasabing basis for increase ng bigas ay andoon pa rin sa presyong itinakda ng NFA council lalo na sa Central Luzon," DA spokesperson Arnel de Mesa said.

(We are monitoring prices to make sure they won't increase. Supply is good, and the farmgate prices, which are the basis for price increases, are still at the level prescribed by the NFA council in Luzon.)

He said that on average the nationwide farmgate price of palay is P22.50 per kilo, which should translate to around P45-P46 per kilo for milled rice.)

He said they are investigating if rice prices are being manipulated.

De Mesa said they also expect rice imports to be lower than the 3.8 million metric tons (MMT) imported last year. He said local production can compensate as they expect a record harvest of more than 20 MMT this year. Last year the country produced around 19.7 MMT of rice.

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