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Voters, candidates warned vs fake pre-election surveys

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Christian V. Esguerra, ABS-CBN News

MANILA — Polling firm Pulse Asia Inc has warned against fake surveys that might circulate ahead of the May midterm elections, saying efforts have become “more sophisticated” over the years.Those behind bogus polls are now copying tables and the overall “look” of reputable survey companies, said Ana Maria Tabunda, Pulse Asia’s research director.Tabunda cited a case prior to the 2016 elections when Pulse Asia was alerted about a supposed local survey in Pampanga.The document was designed to hew closely to those of Pulse Asia’s color and appearance, she said. But the firm, in fact, conducted no such poll in the province that time.“Mas sophisticated pa kasi nga kinokopya na &#x27;yung tables namin, kinokopya ba &#x27;yung Pulse Asia look,” she told ABS-CBN News on Tuesday.(They&#x27;re now more sophisticated because they are copying our tables, copying the Pulse Asia look.)Tabunda said the fake survey was likely meant to dupe a prospective candidate to convince him to run based on promising — but fake — survey numbers.“Sa politicians, &#x27;pag pinakitaan sila ng survey na hindi sila ang nag-commission, tapos sabi gawa ng grupong to, tawagan kami,” she said.(For politicians, if they are showed a survey that they did not commission and are told it was by this group, call us.)“Kasi sa dami ng local races, di namin &#x27;yan kayang bantayan &#x27;yan.“(Because with the number of local races, we can&#x27;t monitor all of that.)Early this month, she said her firm was asked about a supposed survey it had released for the May polls. It turned out to be fake news.<div> SAMPLE SIZE</div>Pulse Asia will begin monthly surveys starting January, with an increased sample size of 1,800 from 1,200 respondents nationwide, ahead of the midterm elections, she said.Questions have been often raised over how such a relatively small sample size could accurately reflect the preference of millions of voters.“Ang paliwanag namin diyan, &#x27;pag gusto mo i-test ang dugo, hindi mo naman inuubos &#x27;yung dugo ng katawan ng tao,” Tabunda said.(Our explanation there is, if you want to take a blood test, you don&#x27;t have to get all the blood in a person&#x27;s body.)“Reliable ang survey &#x27;pag gumamit ka ng statistical techniques, sampling techniques. If you do it correctly, reliable siya kasi gagawin mo, pipiliin mo &#x27;yung sample mo in such a way na representative sila.”(A survey is reliable if you use statistical techniques, sampling techniques. If you do it correctly, it&#x27;s reliable because what you do is, you choose a sample in such a way that it is representative.)For the 2019 elections, the number of voters is estimated at 61 million.<div> BANDWAGON</div>Pre-election surveys are also criticized for allegedly creating a “bandwagon effect” among voters and further boosting the chances of more popular candidates.Tabunda acknowledged that some people might be influenced by the results, but said a majority of the population was not, citing the changing “dynamics” of the campaign.“Kung totoong nakakaimpluwensiya ang survey at survey lamang, ng boto, &#x27;yung unang lumabas, siya na dapat nanalo. Eh hindi nga ganun ang nangyayari,” she said, citing the case of then Mayor Rodrigo Duterte, who trailed in surveys prior to the last presidential election.(If it&#x27;s true that a survey and only a survey influences the outcome of elections, then [the one who emerged as winner in] the first survey results, that candidate should have one. But that&#x27;s not how it happens.)Clarissa David, a professor of communications at the University of the Philippines, said voters “have every right to decide” whether to use survey results and other available information to guide their choices on election day.“If we say na hindi nila dapat &#x27;yun nakikita (that they should not see survey results), then we’re not giving voters the benefit of thinking that they’re intelligent enough,” she told ABS-CBN News.<ul class="op-related-articles">	<li><a href="https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/01/09/19/poe-leads-imee-and-bato-with-statistical-chance-of-senate-win-pulse-asia">Poe leads, Imee and &#x27;Bato&#x27; with &#x27;statistical chance&#x27; of Senate win: Pulse Asia</a></li></ul>

Polling firm Pulse Asia Inc. warned against fake surveys that might circulate ahead of the May midterm elections

Polling firm Pulse Asia Inc. warned against fake surveys that might circulate ahead of the May midterm elections

Voters, candidates warned vs fake pre-election surveys

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Voters, candidates warned vs fake pre-election surveys

Christian V. Esguerra,

ABS-CBN News

Published Jan 09, 2019 02:54 PM PHT

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Halalan 2019

2019 elections

pre-election survey

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Ana Maria Tabunda

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