MANILA — The ongoing La Niña phenomenon in the Philippines is likely to persist until June to August 2022, based on climate models, state weather bureau PAGASA said.

The ongoing La Niña has slightly strengthened based on observed temperatures, PAGASA said during the 147th climate forum held Wednesday, April 27.

La Niña is the cool phase of the naturally occurring El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO), which is a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate variability that disrupts large-scale air movements in the tropics.

• PAGASA declares return of La Niña, end of 'habagat'

The weather bureau said La Niña increases the likelihood of above-normal precipitation in some parts of the country.

In the same forum, PAGASA showed a rainfall forecast for the month of May.

Its forecast shows near normal (81 to 120% of normal) rainfall in almost the entire country, while above normal (>120%) rainfall is expected in Bataan, Occidental Mindoro, Negros Oriental, and Siquijor.

The rainfall forecast for the Angat watershed is also above normal.

The agency also said that the onset of the rainy season associated with the southwest monsoon is expected to fall within the normal time.

Meanwhile, none or one tropical cyclone is expected for the month of May.

Past May tropical cyclones tended to recurve after landfalling over the eastern Visayas or the Bicol Region.

Between eight and 14 tropical cyclones may form inside or enter the Philippine area of responsibility from June to October 2022.

The next eight names on the tropical cyclone list for 2022 are Caloy, Domeng, Ester, Florita, Gardo, Henry, Inday, and Josie.

Tropical cyclones Agaton and Basyang are the first weather disturbances to have hit the country.

• 'Almost stationary' Agaton continues to bring rains over Visayas; Basyang exits PAR

As of 8 a.m. Thursday, a low-pressure area (LPA) was located 325 kilometers south-southwest of Puerto Princesa City, over the western edge of the Sulu sea.

It is likely to develop into a tropical depression once over the West Philippine Sea.

The LPA, intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), and easterlies will continue to bring rainy weather over Palawan, western and central Visayas, Zamboanga peninsula, and the Sulu archipelago. Flooding and landslides continue to threaten these areas, especially those that received significant antecedent rainfall.

For more weather updates, visit ABS-CBN Weather Center.

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