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1,700 deaths seen if Metro Manila lockdown ‘prematurely relaxed’: study

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Christian V. Esguerra, ABS-CBN News

<div class="embed-wrap"><figure data-feedback="fb:likes,fb:comments"><img src="http://sa.kapamilya.com/absnews/abscbnnews/media/2020/news/05/12/20200509-covid-novaliches-traffic-md-2.jpg?ext=.jpg"/><figcaption>Cars fill the streets in Novaliches proper in Quezon City on May 9, 2020 despite the enhanced community quarantine. Mark Demayo, ABS-CBN News</figcaption></figure></div>MANILA — A Philippine state university study pushed for extended lockdowns in Metro Manila and 4 areas, warning of a surge in coronavirus infections if current quarantines were lifted prematurely.In the capital region alone, cases are projected to hit 24,000 with 1,700 deaths by June 15 this year, with a “premature relaxation” of the enhanced community quarantine, forecasts from the University of the Philippines showed.Metro Manila, along with Batangas, Cebu, Zamboanga del Sur, and Davao City, were classified in the study as areas where the pandemic “is still escalating and the curve has not yet flattened.”As of Monday, the National Capital Region had 7,123 cases with 526 deaths. The nationwide death toll is 726 out of 11,086 infections.“Based on our data, if the ECQ is lifted prematurely, we will be faced with another wave or a surge in transmissions that is certain to squander our gains forcing us to make further costly interventions and increasing the total economic cost and the number of lives lost,” the UP study by professors Guido David, Ranjit Rye, and Ma. Patricia Agbulos states.Presidential spokesman Harry Roque announced Tuesday noon that Metro Manila, along with Laguna province and Cebu City, will be on &quot;modified&quot; enhanced community quarantine from May 16 until the end of the month.<ul class="op-related-articles">	<li><a href="https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/05/12/20/modified-lockdown-set-in-metro-manila-2-other-areas">&#x27;Modified&#x27; lockdown set in Metro Manila, 2 other areas</a></li></ul>&quot;Ang modified po na ECQ is ECQ, kaya lang may ilang industriya na bubuksan hanggang 50 porsiyento at mayroon pa rin ilang zona, mga barangay, o grupo ng mga barangay na mananatili pa rin sa ECQ,&quot; Roque said in a Palace press briefing.(A modified ECQ is still an ECQ, but there are certain industries that can open up to 50 percent and there are zones, villages, or groups of villages that will remain under ECQ.)Batangas province, Cebu province, Zamboanga del Sur, and Davao City, meanwhile, will be under general community quarantine.<ul class="op-related-articles">	<li><a href="https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/05/12/20/list-covid-19-quarantine-status-of-regions-provinces-cities-by-may-16">LIST: COVID-19 quarantine status of regions, provinces, cities by May 16</a></li></ul><div>BEST PERFORMING</div>Mayors in Metro Manila earlier floated 3 options for the enhanced community quarantine, which is set to end on May 15.They have recommended for an extension of the quarantine for a maximum of 15 days, or the resumption of certain business and public transport operations under a general quarantine.The third proposal was to shift to general quarantine but allow local governments to lock down certain villages with a substantial number of coronavirus cases.<ul class="op-related-articles">	<li><a href="https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/05/09/20/ncr-mayors-recommend-3-quarantine-options-after-ecq-deadline-expires-on-may-15">NCR mayors recommend 3 quarantine options after ECQ deadline expires on May 15</a></li></ul>“We exhort the government to reconsider its plan of relaxing the ECQ for selected cities within Metro Manila,” the UP researchers said.“We believe that it is premature to consider this proposal given the paucity of reliable data to support it at this time.”The UP study identified Marikina, Mandaluyong, San Juan, Valenzuela and Pasig as the “best performing local governments in terms of controlling the pandemic.”But it remains to be seen where more than 1,000 unvalidated COVID-19 cases were specifically located in Metro Manila, the study said.<div>WEAKEST LINK</div>Maintaining the enhanced community quarantine in the National Capital Region, Albay, Cebu City, and Davao City would bring down the new coronavirus’ reproduction number to below 1, which means transmission would decline, according to the study.Cebu province and Cebu City, along with Zamboanga del Sur, will need “a more disciplined implementation of the enhanced community quarantine to prevent the spread of the pandemic,” it said.The researchers warned that the number of COVID-19 cases in the country could still rise because of mild and asymptomatic cases that remained untested.They also cited delays in reporting cases to the health department, saying the weekly tally could still increase by an average of 15 percent once all data became available.The group urged the government to hire and train more people to do contact tracing, and consider app-based strategies in certain areas.“Contact tracing is the weakest link in our national response to the COVID-19 pandemic,” the researchers said.Sought for comment on the UP study, Roque said, &quot;Obviously, pinakinggan natin ang siyensya, kaya nga po modified ECQ pa rin tayo. Naka-ECQ pa rin tayo, bagama&#x27;t bubuksan natin yung mas marami pang mga sektor ng ating ekonomiya.&quot;(Obviously, we listened to science, that&#x27;s why we will be on modified ECQ. We will be on ECQ, although we will open more sectors of our economy.)He said, &quot;we continue to be on ECQ because of the continuing threat.&quot;Roque said Bases Conversion and Development Authority President and CEO Vince Dizon has been named as &quot;T3&quot; czar, whose mandate is to &quot;test, trace and treat, dahil alam natin na moving forward, hanggang hindi natin nalalaman kung nasaan ang kalaban, at ang kalaban ay yung sakit nga, hindi natin ma-a-isolate at hindi natin magagamot &#x27;yung mga nagkakasakit.&quot;(Because we know that moving forward, for as long as we don&#x27;t know where the enemy is, which is the disease, we won&#x27;t be able to isolate and treat those who are ill.)

A Philippine state university study pushed for extended lockdowns in Metro Manila and 4 areas, warning of a surge in coronavirus infections if current quarantines were lifted prematurely.

A Philippine state university study pushed for extended lockdowns in Metro Manila and 4 areas, warning of a surge in coronavirus infections if current quarantines were lifted prematurely.

1,700 deaths seen if Metro Manila lockdown ‘prematurely relaxed’: study

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1,700 deaths seen if Metro Manila lockdown ‘prematurely relaxed’: study

Christian V. Esguerra,

ABS-CBN News

Published May 12, 2020 01:34 PM PHT

|

Updated May 12, 2020 06:32 PM PHT

Read More:

COVID-19

coronavirus

Rodrigo Duterte

enhanced community quarantine

lockdown

Metro Manila

UP COVID-19 Response Team

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