MANILA — Metro Manila and some parts of Luzon will experience "above normal" rainfall starting this October, state weather bureau PAGASA said.

Aside from Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol region, and most of Central Luzon will have more than the average amount of rainfall in October, PAGASA said during the 148th Climate Forum held May 25.

In November, most of Luzon, Central and Western Visayas, as well as parts of Mindanao will experience the same rainfall conditions.

Most of the country will experience near normal rainfall from June to October. This is equivalent to 81 to 120 percent of the 30-year climatological rainfall average for month.

However, Kalinga, Apayao, and Cagayan will have below normal rainfall in June.

On the other hand, Zambales, Bataan, Pampanga, Cavite, Batangas, Laguna, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, most of Eastern Visayas, Dinagat Islands, and Surigao del Norte will experience above normal rainfall starting next month.

In July, more areas in Northern and Central Luzon will have below normal rainfall: Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Batanes, Cagayan. Zambales, Tarlac, Pampanga. Cavite, and Metro Manila. Catanduanes, Davao del Sur, and Surigao del Sur will have above normal rains.

In August, only Pangasinan, Tarlac, and Pampanga will have below normal precipitation while Bataan will have above normal rainfall.

In September, only Camarines Sur will have below normal rainfall while Bataan will be above normal.

Meanwhile, the Angat watershed is forecast to have near normal rains from June to September and above normal precipitation in November.

The state weather bureau also said La Niña is expected to weaken in the May-June-July season, but may persist throughout the remainder of the year into the first quarter of 2023.

La Niña increases the likelihood of rains in some parts of the country, although some studies show that the strong easterlies during this phenomenon may stall the southwest monsoon, also known as Habagat.

PAGASA also noted that 11 to 18 tropical cyclones may enter or form inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) from June to November.

The state weather bureau had declared the onset of the rainy season in the Philippines on May 18.

• PAGASA declares onset of rainy season

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