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American analyst cautions against calling Ayungin incident an accident

Article (news)

Michael Delizo

ABS-CBN News

<div style="margin-bottom:0px;line-height:normal"><span class="fr-img-caption fr-fic fr-dib" style="width:960px"><span class="fr-img-wrap"><img src="https://od2-image-api.abs-cbn.com/prod/editorImage/171912177998920240619110628_416cd587c77aef0c5a02eb32495da859500aa12d98d16c9bb967914e6cd44a93.png" style="width:960px" class="fr-fic fr-dib" alt="AFP chief Romeo Brawner awards Seaman First Class Jeffrey Facundo of the Philippine Navy, who lost his right thumb during a maritime clash with China last June 17, 2024. ABS-CBN News "/><span class="fr-inner"><span id="isPasted" style="color:rgb(51, 51, 51);letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;white-space:pre-wrap;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;display:inline !important;float:none">AFP chief Romeo Brawner awards Seaman First Class Jeffrey Facundo of the Philippine Navy, who lost his right thumb during a maritime clash with China last June 17, 2024. ABS-CBN News </span> </span></span></span></div><div style="margin-bottom:0px;line-height:normal"><br/></div><p style="margin-bottom:0px;line-height:normal">MANILA <strong>(UPDATED)</strong> — China’s hostile actions near Ayungin or Second Thomas Shoal on June 17 were &quot;clearly not an accident and misunderstanding,&quot; a<span id="isPasted" style="caret-color:rgb(65, 65, 65);color:rgb(65, 65, 65)">n American maritime security expert on Sunday said</span> as he urged the Philippine government to be careful in its efforts to de-escalate the situation in the West Philippine Sea.<br/><br/>Former US Air Force officer Ray Powell said China may see the de-escalation as an opportunity to reposition in its favor, just as it did after the 2012 standoff when it seized Scarborough Shoal, locally called Panatag Shoal and Bajo de Masinloc.<br/><br/>“I think those are unfortunate words. This is clearly not an accident, it is clearly not a misunderstanding,&quot; Powell told ABS-CBN News in a virtual interview.</p><div style="margin-bottom:0px;line-height:normal"><br/></div><div style="margin-bottom:0px;line-height:normal"><a href="https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/2024/6/21/china-coast-guard-acts-vs-ph-troops-probably-a-misunderstanding-national-maritime-council-1938">RELATED: China Coast Guard acts vs PH troops &#x27;probably a misunderstanding&#x27; — National Maritime Council</a></div><div style="margin-bottom:0px;line-height:normal"><br/></div><p style="margin-bottom:0px;line-height:normal">&quot;These were deliberate acts by the China Coast Guard. We can differ on whether we want to classify this as an armed attack, but we cannot call this an accident,&quot; he also said of the blocking by the China Coast Guard of a Philippine boat during an operation to resupply BRP Sierra Madre on Ayungin Shoal.<br/><br/>“I think that the idea behind using terms like that was toward de-escalation. But we need to be very careful when we consider de-escalation as an outcome, that we don’t sort of fall into the trap,” he added.</p><div style="margin-bottom:0px;line-height:normal"><br/></div><p>President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. thanked troops in Palawan on Sunday for their service and for their sacrifices in upholding Philippine sovereignty.</p><p>&quot;Hindi magbabago ang ating pananaw dito sa sitwasyon na ito. Hindi tayo maaring pilitin na basta pabayaan na lang na kung sino-sino ang magsasabi — &#x27;hindi na sa inyo ‘yan, amin ito&#x27;. Hindi na puwedeng mangyari &#x27;yun,&quot; added Marcos Jr. </p><p>(Our perspective on this will not change. We cannot be forced to just allow others to say &#x27;these are not your waters, these are ours&#x27;. That cannot happen again.)</p><p style="margin-bottom:0px;line-height:normal"><strong>PALACE EXEC: &#x27;A MISUNDERSTANDING OR AN ACCIDENT&#x27;<br/></strong><br/>The Philippines alleges the China Coast Guard rammed and boarded Filipino navy boats in a violent confrontation in which a Filipino sailor lost a finger during a rotation and resupply mission on June 17.<br/><br/>Footage released by the Armed Forces of the Philippines showed small boats crewed by Chinese sailors who were shouting, waving knives and using sticks to hit an inflatable boat as a siren blared.<br/><br/>Executive Secretary Lucas Bersamin, who is also the chair of the National Maritime Council, said the chaotic face-off “was probably a misunderstanding or an accident.”<br/><br/>“We&#x27;re not yet ready to classify this as an armed attack. I don&#x27;t know kung &#x27;yung mga nakita namin is bolo, axe, nothing beyond that,” Bersamin said with a laugh.</p><div style="margin-bottom:0px;line-height:normal"><br/></div><div style="margin-bottom:0px;line-height:normal"><a href="https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/2024/6/23/marcos-ph-won-t-instigate-wars-nor-yield-to-any-foreign-power-1135">RELATED: PH won&#x27;t instigate wars nor yield to any foreign power — Marcos</a></div><div style="margin-bottom:0px;line-height:normal"><br/></div><p style="margin-bottom:0px;line-height:normal">The council has recommended continuing with the resupply missions in the West Philippine Sea and &quot;to publicize the schedule for activities without giving up anything.&quot;</p><p><br/>Bersamin said the maritime council does not see the recent development as enough ground to invoke the country’s Mutual Defense Treaty with the United States.</p><p style="margin-bottom:0px;line-height:normal">National democratic activist group Bagong Alyansang Makabayan, which opposes US presence in the Philippines but also condemns China&#x27;s aggression in Philippine waters, said Saturday that government’s priority should be to  “exercise its sovereign rights in its exclusive economic zone and protect Filipino fishermen first and foremost because their livelihoods are threatened.”</p><div style="margin-bottom:0px;line-height:normal;min-height:15px"> </div><p style="margin-bottom:0px;line-height:normal">BAYAN president Renato Reyes said the group is calling for diplomatic dialogue as well as the removal of Chinese and US military assets from the area to de-escalate the situation.</p><div style="margin-bottom:0px;line-height:normal"><br/></div><p style="margin-bottom:0px;line-height:normal"><strong>CONSULTATIONS ON DETAILS OF DEFENSE TREATY<br/></strong><br/>For Powell, however, the Philippines would be perfectly justified in requesting Article III consultations under the treaty.</p><div style="margin-bottom:0px;line-height:normal"><br/></div><p style="margin-bottom:0px;line-height:normal">Article III authorizes consultations between foreign ministers on the details of the implementation of the MDT “whenever in the opinion of either of them the territorial integrity, political independence or security of either of the Parties is threatened by external armed attack in the Pacific.”</p><p style="margin-bottom:0px;line-height:normal"><br/>Powell said the potential talks between the Philippines and the US “would simply be a formal consultation based on the threats to the Philippine sovereignty and territorial integrity,” he said.<br/><br/>Powell added: “[You] have a Mutual Defense Treaty for a reason. You should be able to appeal to a Mutual Defense Treaty under the terms of the treaty when your territorial integrity and sovereignty are being threated.”<br/><br/>Powell said China has a “very tight blockade” now around Ayungin Shoal and it is almost already impossible for the Philippines to approach BRP Sierra Madre.</p><div style="margin-bottom:0px;line-height:normal"><br/></div><div style="margin-bottom:0px;line-height:normal"><a href="https://news.abs-cbn.com/world/2024/4/10/us-hosts-landmark-summit-with-ph-and-japan-to-boost-security-and-economic-cooperation-2105">RELATED: US hosts landmark summit with PH and Japan to boost security and economic cooperation</a></div><p><br/>“So, the Philippines needs other options. Now, ultimately, it’s going to be either to get the goods in using some other means, which could be with or without American help or other help, or it needs to get China’s acquiescence so that the resupply is not opposed,” he said.</p><div><br/></div><div><strong>RELATED VIDEO</strong></div><div><span class="fr-video fr-deletable fr-fvc fr-dvb fr-draggable" contenteditable="false" draggable="true"><iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/vqpsgc9ZsW0?&amp;wmode=opaque&amp;rel=0" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" class="fr-draggable"></iframe></span><br/></div>

<p>Former United States Air Force officer Ray Powell said China may see the de-escalation as an opportunity to reposition in its favor, just as it did after the 2012 standoff when it seized Scarborough Shoal, locally called Panatag Shoal and Bajo de Masinloc.</p>

Former United States Air Force officer Ray Powell said China may see the de-escalation as an opportunity to reposition in its favor, just as it did after the 2012 standoff when it seized Scarborough Shoal, locally called Panatag Shoal and Bajo de Masinloc.