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Residents of Tumana Village in Marikina are evacuated from their flooded village on July 24, 2024 as heavy rains brought about by the southwest monsoon and enhanced by Typhoon Carina continue to pour the whole day, flooding many parts of Metro Manila. Mark Demayo, ABS-CBN News

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Typhoon Carina

Nicole Agcaoili

Ariel Rojas

ABS-CBN News

<div><img src="https://od2-image-api.abs-cbn.com/prod/editorImage/172214907663720240724-habagat-carina-tumana-MD-3.jpg" style="width:960px" class="fr-fic fr-dib" alt="Residents of Tumana Village in Marikina are evacuated from their flooded village on July 24, 2024 as heavy rains brought about by the southwest monsoon and enhanced by Typhoon Carina continue to pour the whole day, flooding many parts of Metro Manila. Mark Demayo, ABS-CBN News"/>Residents of Tumana Village in Marikina are evacuated from their flooded village on July 24, 2024 as heavy rains brought about by the southwest monsoon and enhanced by Typhoon Carina continue to pour the whole day, flooding many parts of Metro Manila. Mark Demayo, ABS-CBN News</div>MANILA — Super Typhoon Carina’s (international name Gaemi) position east of Taiwan enhanced the Southwest Monsoon or Habagat, causing intense rainfall and serious flooding in Luzon than usual, an expert said.In an interview on the TeleRadyo Serbisyo&#x27; &quot;Ligtas Dapat&quot; this Saturday, atmospheric scientist and professor Gerry Bagtasa of the University of the Philippines Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology identified a corridor area between northern Luzon and Ryukyu Islands as the “optimum” position for a tropical cyclone to enhance the habagat.“Baliktad kasi sa intuition natin na kapag mas malayo ‘yung bagyo, iisipin natin mas mahina na ‘yung hangin, ‘di ba? Pero ang nangyayari is kapag mas malayo siya at nandun ‘yung position niya sa east ng Taiwan, then du’n siya magpapaulan,” said Dr. Bagtasa.(It seems counterintuitive because we would think that the farther away the storm is, the weaker the wind, right? But what happens is if it is far away and is in that position east of Taiwan, then it is going to cause more rain)The mountainous terrain of Taiwan also slowed down the typhoon and influenced the duration of the heavy rains.“So almost whole day from morning until mga alas-sais na ng gabi pagkakaaalala ko, nand’yan lang s’ya sa Taiwan. Ibig sabihin — nandiyan siya sa optimum na lugar kung saan magpapaulan siya.”(So it was in Taiwan almost the whole day, from morning until around 6 p.m. — it was in the optimum area to cause rain)<div><a href="https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/2024/7/25/carina-enhanced-habagat-dumps-more-rain-than-ondoy-1059" id="isPasted">READ: Carina-enhanced habagat dumps more rain than Ondoy</a></div>The presence of Tropical Depression Butchoy (international name Prapiroon) near Vietnam also had a hand in the intensified Habagat.<div>IT HAPPENS EVERY YEAR </div>But Bagtasa reiterated that typhoon enhancement of Habagat is a yearly occurrence and not a rare event.“Hindi to bihira, nangyayari to every year. In fact, around 30 percent ng fresh water ng Luzon ay nanggagaling sa enhanced Habagat,&quot; he said.(It&#x27;s not a rare occurence. It happens every year. In fact, around 30 percent of the fresh water in Luzon comes from an enhanced Habagat) &quot;Pero paminsan-minsan, nangyayari na sobrang daming pag-ulan. Nagkataon kasi na ‘yung position ng cloud, direction ng hangin, kung nasaan tayo sa Manila, and so on.&quot;(But sometimes, it bring too much rain, It happens because of the position of the cloud, wind direction and where we are in Metro Manila)While weather models forecast heavy rains for last Wednesday, they did not capture the torrential intensity that would eventually lead to among the worst flooding in recent years in Metro Manila.Bagtasa attributed this higher-than-forecast rainfall to the size and unpredictable movement of the rain-bearing cloud.“One of the reasons dito ay dahil ‘yung cloud na nagpapaulan hindi siya ganun kalaki – maliit lang siya and nag-momove sya… ‘Yun ‘yung mahirap eh kasi di natin malaman exactly kung saan pupuwesto tong cloud na ‘to na nagpaulan. Nagkataon na nag-move ito papuntang lupa and naramdaman natin ito noong Wednesday.”(One of the reasons is that the cloud was not that big and it moved. That&#x27;s what complicates things, because we can&#x27;t say where exactly the cloud will go. It just so happened that it went towards land and that we felt its effects on Wednesday)According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council situational report released Sunday, more than 3.6 million people were affected by the combined effects of Habagat, Tropical Depression Butchoy and Super Typhoon Carina in 16 regions, with more than 160,000 individuals still in 1,025 evacuation centers.NDRRMC also said that 28 people have been reported dead but 18 of the reported fatalities still have to be validated.The combined damage to agriculture, infrastructure, houses, and other assets amounts to P386 million.<div><a href="https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/2024/7/24/to-soon-to-compare-this-week-s-habagat-rains-to-ondoy-pagasa-1943">READ: Too soon to compare this week&#x27;s Habagat rains to &#x27;Ondoy&#x27; — PAGASA </a></div><div>HABAGAT 2024 VS. &#x27;ONDOY&#x27;</div>Bagtasa also addressed the comparisons between the torrential rains on Wednesday and during the passage of Tropical Storm Ondoy in 2009.“May comparison nga between Ondoy and (Habagat) because of the effect — siyempre umulan, bumaha, and yung mga baha sintaas yung iba kay Ondoy. It would be easy to compare the two.”(There have been comparisons made between Ondoy and Habagat — of course, because of the rain and floods)However, he said the amount of rainfall in different areas spelled the difference between the two events.Ondoy brought rain to upstream areas like Rizal province, which affected flooding in Manila. The Habagat rains last Wednesday were more concentrated in Metro Manila, he said.“Kung ganun natin tingnan, actually pwede natin sabihin na mas kaunti yung ulan nitong Wednesday kumpara kay Ondoy… I say na mas kaunti ito although sa PAGASA station, slightly higher.”(If we look at it that way, we can actually say there was less rain last Wednesday than during Ondoy. I say there was less, although the PAGASA station slightly more)Rainfall data from PAGASA showed that the Carina-enhanced Habagat dumped about 461.4 millimeters of rain within 24 hours between 2 a.m. on Wednesday and 2 a.m. on Thursday at the Science Garden station in Quezon City. This is slightly higher than Ondoy’s 24-hour rainfall in 2009 from 8 a.m. on September 26 to 8 a.m. on September 27, with 455 millimeters in the same location.“Pero kung titingnan natin sa epekto, kung saan sya bumagsak dito sa mga certain lugar na medyo mabababa, then yung epekto medyo pareho.”(But if we look at effects where the rain fell, especially in lower-lying areas, then the effect was similar)<div><a href="https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/2024/7/27/overpopulation-poor-urban-development-garbage-blamed-for-ncr-floods-2152" id="isPasted">READ: Overpopulation, poor urban development, garbage blamed for NCR floods</a></div>Bagtasa emphasized that despite the population growth of 3 million in the past 15 years in Metro Manila, Pasig River — the main artery of waterflow to Manila Bay — remained narrow, which means it takes longer for water to flow into the sea.“This would have had an effect dun sa daloy ng tubig sa mga kanal natin, ‘yung dami ng basura, and so on.”(This would have had an effect on water flow in our canals, the volume of trash and so on)<div><iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/4ORkTpU5bSg?&amp;wmode=opaque&amp;rel=0" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" class="fr-draggable"></iframe></div><div>MORE RAINS AND ADAPTATION</div>With La Niña possible before the end of the year and the warming of the atmosphere, what would be the rainfall trend?State climatologists project La Niña developing this August-September-October season. Storms will tend to form closer to the Philippine landmass and therefore bring more rains to the country.Bagtasa cited the La Niña year 2020 when successive storms battered Bicol Region with heavy rains, as an example.“Maari rin naman na isang La Niña year biglang magkataon na walang gaanong bagyo so that’s a possibility.”(It&#x27;s also possible for few storms to develop in a La Niña year)Although more storms hit the Philippines since 2010, Bagtasa says projections see a decline in the number but an increase in the strength of storms globally, in the context of the climate crisis.That, he said, poses more danger to the Philippines because of less fresh water from the rain and more powerwul storms that will bring more destructive rain and wind.However, even with projected decrease in the number of storms, the country is seen to have more rains from other weather systems.“Pero ang mangyayari din ‘yung mga panahon ng tagtuyot hahaba rin. Ito yung tinatawag na &#x27;drier dry&#x27; and &#x27;wetter wet&#x27;.”(But that will also mean longer dry seasons. This is what they call &#x27;drier dry&#x27; and &#x27;wetter wet&#x27;)<div>&#x27;BUILD WITH FLOODS IN MIND&#x27;</div>Can perennial flooding in the Philippines still be solved?“Marami namang mga infrastructure solutions na nagawa na sa ibang bansa para maibsan yung baha… In the long run, magiging cost effective din naman tong mga solutions na to, however expensive they are right now.”(There have been a lot of infrastructure solutions that other countries have used against flooding. In the long run, these will be cost-effective solutions even if they are expensive)Bagtasa believes Filipinos should always keep in mind that the Philippines is a flood-prone country with more rains projected in the near-future and structural plans should be built around this premise.“So yung pagtayo ng mga infrastructure and so on with the baha na nasa isip… The way to do itong mga infrastructure forward is to kumbaga makipagtulungan with nature. It should be nature-based with the thinking na nandyan talaga siya.”(So we should build infrastructure with flooding in mind. The way to do it is to work with nature. Infrastructure should be nature-based, with the thinking that flooding is a reality to work around)

Super Typhoon Carina’s (international name Gaemi) position east of Taiwan enhanced the southwest monsoon or habagat, causing intense rainfall and serious flooding in Luzon than usual, an expert said.

Super Typhoon Carina’s (international name Gaemi) position east of Taiwan enhanced the southwest monsoon or habagat, causing intense rainfall and serious flooding in Luzon than usual, an expert said.

How Super Typhoon Carina enhanced Habagat, according to an atmospheric scientist

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How Super Typhoon Carina enhanced Habagat, according to an atmospheric scientist

Nicole Agcaoili,

Ariel Rojas,

ABS-CBN News

Published Jul 28, 2024 03:59 PM PHT

Read More:

Super typhoon Carina

southwest monsoon

Habagat

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