10 out of 12 Marcos Jr Senate bets could win: analyst

Ten out of the 12 senatorial candidates endorsed by President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. could win in next year's election, a political analyst predicted Friday, due to the administration slate's unique combination of experience, youth, popularity and machinery. 

Reelectionists, returnees banner Marcos Jr senatorial slate

Political analyst Fe Mendoza said name recall will help most of the administration candidates win the polls, with the slate composed mainly of reelectionists and returnees.

“Malaki ang possibility na marami sa kanila ang manalo kasi yung mga nandun, ‘yung mga kilala, mga dating senador. Ang bago lang d’yan sa national level sina Makati Mayor Abby Binay at Camille (Villar). Lahat ‘yun nasa national consciousness,” Mendoza said in a TeleRadyo Serbisyo interview.

Political analyst Dr. Froilan Calilung went even further, saying the administration slate could do a near sweep of the 12 available senatorial slots. 

“The administration really tried to come up with formidable slate. A combination of experience and youth as we have come backing senators, ‘yung level of popularity was also there, may sapat silang machinery individually to launch a national campaign without relying on the administration,” he said.

“Malakas itong lineup na ito. Fearless forecast ko dito 10 out 12. They will probably get a good result in this coming elections,” he added.

President Marcos Jr. unveiled Thursday his senatorial slate a week before Comelec opens the filing of candidacies for the 2025 midterm elections.

Re-electionists and returnees banner the senatorial slate, headlined by Marcos Jr.'s sister Imee and former Senate President Vicente "Tito" Sotto III. Imee is seeking a second straight term in the Senate.

Sotto, now 76, served as Senate President from 2018 up until the end of his term in 2022. He ran for Vice President in the 2022 National Elections but lost to Sara Duterte.

Joining Sotto and Imee are former senators Panfilo "Ping" Lacson and boxing legend Manny Pacquiao. Re-electionists such as former actors Lito Lapid and Bong Revilla, Pia Cayetano, and Francis Tolentino are included in the lineup. Imee Marcos, Bong Revilla and Francis Tolentino are notably from the UniTeam banner during the 2022 National Elections.

Abby Binay, Camille Villar, Erwin Tulfo, and DILG chief Benhur Abalos III are seeking first terms in the Senate. Abby Binay, the sister of Sen. Nancy Binay, is currently on her 3rd and last term as a Makati mayor, while Camille Villar, the daughter of senator Cynthia Villar, is Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives.

The coalition’s campaign manager, Navotas Rep. Toby Tiangco said the biggest consideration in choosing members of the senatorial lineup was the candidate’s support for the President’s legislative agenda.

“Huwag muna ang winnability, ang importante dito ay ang susuporta sa legislative agenda. Kasi kung winnable naman tapos iba naman ang paniwala nila sa mga batas na dapat isuporta sa Presidente, syempre hindi naman nating pwedeng kunin just for convenience,” he said. 

In the interview, Mendoza acknowledged the strength of the admin lineup, saying many of the candidates have experience in legislation and have a level of competency needed for the job. 

“Kumpleto ang administrasyon, simulat-simula pa lang naghahanda na ‘yun. Pag pumunta ka sa mga probinsya, ang dami ng tarpaulin. Nagsu-survey ‘yang mga ‘yan. Pag-alam nilang mananalo sila, nagpupunta ‘yan sa mga probinsya at nakikisama sa mga activities ng presidente,” she said. 

She also pointed out the weakness of the opposition. 

“Incomplete sila, hindi sila makakakuha ng mga kandidato na kukumpleto ng slate,” she said.

Calilung said some voters would rather choose a candidate that they think would win instead of choosing the best candidate. 

“‘Yung konsepto natin ng winnability, kung minsan it really hampers our level ng choice or the way we choose our candidates. ‘Yung konsepto ng winnability kasi, may gusto kang iboto sana kasi magaling pero nakikita mo na hindi talaga siya winnable so you just go with those that you think or most likely going to make it,” he said.

Mendoza said political maturity of voters is important if new candidates hope to gain a seat in the Upper Chamber.

"Ang posibilidad nila ay kung ang mga tao ay mulat. Kailangan imulat natin sila kung ano ba ang kailangan natin sa mga iboboto natin. Pera ba na ibibigay sa iyo sa isang araw lang o 'yung kinabukasan ng mga anak natin?"

"Dapat may ganung consciousness, kaya lang ang hirap baguhin ng ganung pananaw."