Pulse Asia explains difference between last survey vs election results | ABS-CBN
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Pulse Asia explains difference between last survey vs election results
Pulse Asia explains difference between last survey vs election results
MANILA — Pulse Asia on Tuesday explained the supposed "gap" between the result of their last pre-election survey compared to the actual result of the midterm polls.
MANILA — Pulse Asia on Tuesday explained the supposed "gap" between the result of their last pre-election survey compared to the actual result of the midterm polls.
Partial and unofficial counts showed that contrary to past surveys, senatorial candidates Bam Aquino, Kiko Pangilinan, and Rodante Marcoleta were performing better and were likely to make it to the "Magic 12."
Partial and unofficial counts showed that contrary to past surveys, senatorial candidates Bam Aquino, Kiko Pangilinan, and Rodante Marcoleta were performing better and were likely to make it to the "Magic 12."
"I can only talk about our own survey. So our survey was conducted April 20 to 24. So that was about three weeks before the May 12 election. In that particular survey, Bam Aquino was in contention, Francis Pangilinan had declined... Marcoleta was only in the winning circle in March, but was out of contention in April," Pulse Asia president Ronald Holmes said.
"I can only talk about our own survey. So our survey was conducted April 20 to 24. So that was about three weeks before the May 12 election. In that particular survey, Bam Aquino was in contention, Francis Pangilinan had declined... Marcoleta was only in the winning circle in March, but was out of contention in April," Pulse Asia president Ronald Holmes said.
"But again, that's three weeks before the campaign, the end of the election on election day," he added.
"But again, that's three weeks before the campaign, the end of the election on election day," he added.
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Holmes added that another thing they noticed in the April survey "was a decline in terms of fill-up rates."
Holmes added that another thing they noticed in the April survey "was a decline in terms of fill-up rates."
Holmes said that there's a possibility that after the poll, voters changed their minds and added more names.
Holmes said that there's a possibility that after the poll, voters changed their minds and added more names.
"That means that there's a probability in these cases that they will swing back and probably elect more. So you cannot rule out that there will be people, and this is based on an old exit poll that we had in 2010, that eventually added names to those that they initially signified preference for," he said.
"That means that there's a probability in these cases that they will swing back and probably elect more. So you cannot rule out that there will be people, and this is based on an old exit poll that we had in 2010, that eventually added names to those that they initially signified preference for," he said.
"So that's the one explanation—the remaining time for the campaign and what the candidates may have done during that campaign."
"So that's the one explanation—the remaining time for the campaign and what the candidates may have done during that campaign."
Holmes pointed out that the 3-week gap between the last Pulse Asia survey and election day saw critical endorsements and heightened campaign activities.
Holmes pointed out that the 3-week gap between the last Pulse Asia survey and election day saw critical endorsements and heightened campaign activities.
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"Of course, it does not explain why Bam Aquino or Kiko Pangilinan... are at the top of top six, but it explains why there are people who were in the upper half or even in the bottom six of our April survey that eventually slid down," he said.
"Of course, it does not explain why Bam Aquino or Kiko Pangilinan... are at the top of top six, but it explains why there are people who were in the upper half or even in the bottom six of our April survey that eventually slid down," he said.
Holmes, however, would like to wait for voter turnout rate because that would also explain the variability.
Holmes, however, would like to wait for voter turnout rate because that would also explain the variability.
"That's why, as I said, I'd rather study what our survey had and then what the actual results are and disaggregate it even by area. Unfortunately, the actual survey results, actual election results are not disaggregated based on age groups. The only thing that you can do is really look at the areas."
"That's why, as I said, I'd rather study what our survey had and then what the actual results are and disaggregate it even by area. Unfortunately, the actual survey results, actual election results are not disaggregated based on age groups. The only thing that you can do is really look at the areas."
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Holmes also held out the possibility of Pulse Asia taking a look at its methodology following the results of the election.
Holmes also held out the possibility of Pulse Asia taking a look at its methodology following the results of the election.
"If we were off, then we will admit we were off. But the important thing is that why are we off that particular actual result? And that requires serious study on our part. And even if necessary, then we will take on some of our colleagues in the social sciences and do an independent review of our sampling design or our methodology," he said.
"If we were off, then we will admit we were off. But the important thing is that why are we off that particular actual result? And that requires serious study on our part. And even if necessary, then we will take on some of our colleagues in the social sciences and do an independent review of our sampling design or our methodology," he said.
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"Let's wait for all of this data. We'll review on our own. And then if need be, then we'll have a set of independent academics that can look at our own work and see what are the things that we can improve on," he added.
"Let's wait for all of this data. We'll review on our own. And then if need be, then we'll have a set of independent academics that can look at our own work and see what are the things that we can improve on," he added.
Holmes stressed that surveys are not perfect.
Holmes stressed that surveys are not perfect.
"The only predictive survey is really the exit poll. Kung nagkamali ka sa exit poll yun ang malaking problema."
"The only predictive survey is really the exit poll. Kung nagkamali ka sa exit poll yun ang malaking problema."
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