MANILA –  The leading party-lists based on the partial and unofficial count of the 2025 midterm elections are either sectoral or regional-based groups, according to research firm WR Numero.

As of May 15, Akbayan Party-list remains in the lead with 6.66 percent, followed by Duterte Youth (5.59%), Tingog (4.36%), 4PS (3.51%), ACT-CIS (2.97%) and Ako Bicol (2.57%).

Rounding up the top 10 are Uswag Ilonggo, Solid North Party, Trabaho and CIBAC, who have yet to reach the required 2% to get an assured congressional seat.

WR Numero Data Management Co-Lead AJ Montesa told ABS-CBN News most of the groups leading the race are not just focused on one area or region.

"Around 6 out of these 10 are what I would characterize as broad-based party lists, meaning medyo mas sectoral yung appeal nila across the country. They try to get votes across the country from all different geographic areas," he said.

In contrast, Montesa said four out of the top 10 are regional or area-based groups.

"For example, yung Tingog Party-list which we know is affiliated dun kay Speaker Martin Romualdez, mas yung Eastern Visayas po yung base nila. So Tingog ay nasa top 3. Si Ako Bicol naman ay nasa top 6. Of course, sa pangalan pa lang, mas Bicol region yung appeal nila. Which is represented by Congressman Zaldy Co," Montesa said.

"And then yung Uswag Ilonggo Partty-list, mas Western Visayas yung appeal nila, yung Panay Islands, yung Negros Islands. So, mga Ilonggo voters, of course, yung tina-try nilang i-appeal. And then yung Solid North Party, again, sa panganan pa lang, they're trying to appeal to the voters from Cordillera, Region 1 and Region 2," he added.

However, Montesa said some groups like Tingog still attracted votes from other parts of Visayas like Cebu, Negros and Iloilo. 

Montesa explained how regional groups rely on their base to win a seat.

"So yung regional parties, they don't try to get broad appeal sa buong bansa. They try to find a solid base doon sa mga botante nila in their geographic regions. And based on results, that was enough to propel them into the top 10 ng party lists," he explained.

"It's very common in the regional parties na kung regional or geographic party ka, the easiest way to mobilize your voters is if your nominees or your notable figures are members ng mga local clans or local dynasties," Montesa said.

He also shared how some groups will form alliances with political clans.

"I think you'll observe that there are ways to look into party-lists na, ah, itong first nominee, for example, is affiliated with a local dynasty. And if you calculate their votes, karamihan ng votes nila ay nagagaling dun sa area kung taga saan yung nominee nila," Montesa said.

However, political dynasties or links to political clans are not just in the top 10.

"Some of the other party lists na wala sa top 10 ay naging practice na rin na they will try to ally with a certain local clan or local politician, no? And then doon sila kukuha or doon sila hahakot ng karamihan ng boto nila," he explained.

Montesa said the number of regional party-lists in the top 10 show that these groups still resonate to the people.

"I think since 4 out of the top 10 are still regional party-list or area-based party-lists, it still shows that in terms of the party list race, Filipinos do tend still to vote based on their geographic interests or nag-identify talaga sila sa party lists na nag-represent ng geographic area nila," he explained.

WHAT DO PARTY-LIST RESULTS SHOW?

Montesa said Akbayan and Duterte Youth topping the party-list race may send a signal of the sentiments of the people on the current administration.

"Yung pag-totop ng Akbayan and Duterte youth is also I think emblematic of the voters na they are voting in line with expressing some sort of dissatisfaction with the current administration. They represent also yung parang still ongoing support or strong support for the Duterte bloc. Of course, top three din yung Tingog, which shows na yung ability ng Speaker to mobilize resources also for the party list," he explained.

Montesa shared an insight on why Akbayan topped the party-list race despite not being among the frontrunners in pre-election surveys.

"Yung Akbayan, based on the election results, they have mass appeal everywhere. Parang I think in the top 15 largest voting provinces, nasa top 10 lagi sila. Nasa top 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 sila lagi. I think the reason na hindi sila nag-appear sa surveys but nag-top sila sa final election results is probably similar dun sa observation kung bakit si Sen. Bam Aquino and si Sen. Kiko Pangilinan ay nakapasok sa top 2 and 5 dun sa senatorials. Probably, in the last 2 weeks of the election, maraming pwedeng nangyari," he said.  

"I think, pagdating sa party-list voting kasi, maraming botante ang hindi pa sure. Based on our surveys, for example, nasa 13 to 15 percent. When you ask them weeks before the election, hindi pa sila sure kung sinong ibabot nila baka hindi pa nila kilala. So many voters probably are can be influenced, diba?" he shared.

Montesa also said the outpouring of youth support may also have added to Akbayan's success.

Aside from Akbayan, Mamamayang Liberal or ML Party-list also secured a congressional seat despite not faring well in pre-election surveys.

"Akbayan and ML are similar in that they're both what you would consider opposition parties. Parties and yung pag-elect sa kanila in the top 15 ng party list, I think is a sign din ng voters na they're signaling that they want also some opposition candidates to be members of Congress to, of course, bring out their concerns dito sa Marcos administration," he said.

"I think voters also understand na them [Chel Diokno and Leila De Lima] being opposition provides a check and balance to both, no? Both the Marcoses and the Dutertes. Parang independent sila in the sense na they're not afraid to criticize the Marcoses and the Duterte on either side. And I think yung appeal nila, they could have appealed to both the Marcos and the Duterte voters kasi nakikita nila na pwede silang mag-act as a counterbalance," Montesa explained.

According to the ABS-CBN Research and Verification Unit, the first four party-lists will get three seats, while the rank number five and six get two seats each.

The Commission on Elections (Comelec) said it needs to receive all votes first before it can compute and determine the final seat allocation for party-lists.