Julia Christine Botin

OPINION: Bloodbath, Bold or Insolent Wish?

Article (news)

Edmund Tayao

After the long wait, and I have to say rather rumbunctious midterm election, it’s done and decided by the people. Unexpected in that the result was not what many expected. None of the surveys that came out a few days before the elections, at the very least, “closely” forecasted the result. Highly unlikely if you ask me, given especially that now, we have new survey firms doing research, reading every move and development in politics.There was nothing wrong with what and how the surveys were made, I think. Of course, this goes only with the legitimate research firms, those that actually do field work and go to every barangay interviewing voters and or the public randomly. There were those supposed survey groups that insist on doing “social media” or “phone” surveys, which is plain and simply preposterous, given the still traditional societal and structural conditions that the country remains to have. Still, likely because of the advent of fake news, even if they themselves already know how foolhardy and deceitful, there are those who still went on and pretended to do legitimate surveys.Of course, surveys in previous elections also did not predict the result of the elections exactly. Surveys, like any social science tool, are probabilistic. It’s not impossible to predict, but to do so exactly is difficult.When many surveys have been saying the same result, many groups undertook to campaign for discernment. Our firm PEERS did the same call for &#x27;Bottam&#x27; or Botong Tama and Tamang Pulitika. Many other groups, without each talking or coordinating or related to each other, were doing the same. There were campaigns that called the attention of the voters to consider so much more other than popularity and dancing during the campaign. That educational background and track record are important considerations. Most importantly, the voters were advised that it is wrong to just vote straight, that they should weigh each candidate carefully. And that’s exactly what happened. The brothers didn’t win.  The candidates who were known to be just always dancing during campaigns didn’t make it. Those who’ve been involved in fraudulent activities in office were rejected. And those who don’t have anything to advocate if elected to office other than their popularity were shunned.If that doesn’t suggest that the people listen and that they actually consider and think who to vote for, I wonder what else would.Voters also didn’t vote straight. Considering the disparity between the surveys and the actual result, it shows that many also chose to vote for fewer than 12.This means they listened to the advice that they should only vote for those they are convinced should be elected.And this has far-reaching implications moving forward. <div>NO GROUP DOMINATED MIDTERM POLLS</div>It should be noted that no one group dominated the election. Only five of the Duterte slate made it. Yes, two were endorsed by VP Sara, but these are from already established names in politics, Villar and Marcos.Yes, the endorsement added to their votes, including the reported endorsement of the Iglesia ni Cristo, but if those endorsed are not from any established political names, they would not have mattered at all.I say this because, if indeed, the Duterte power of endorsement is absolute, it should have benefited those in the original slate first.  Note especially the presence of popular names in the lineup that still did not come even close to striking distance. You have a once popular actor, who definitely is still known to many, Philip Salvador.  You have a popular singer, Jimmy Bondoc, who belatedly made his being a lawyer known to many and unconvincingly tried to demonstrate his knowledge of the law. They have no less the former Executive Secretary Vic Rodriguez, who became a household name when he transformed from a close and staunch supporter of the President to being his Number One critic.Also part of the slate is the lawyer of former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and who is a name of his own being a known advocate of charter change, Atty. Raul Lambino. The only one in the slate who could be considered new to the public is Atty. Jayvee Hinlo, but just the same an experienced lawyer. With popularity, credentials plus the popular Duterte support, it should have been a complete recipe, but it was not.I have no doubt the Duterte franchise remains a franchise and sustains a sizable following. But I don’t think it is as potent as before.  Senator-Elect Bam Aquino made it a point not to use the color yellow and did not run under the Liberal party. I’m sure though that regardless of color, he was an Aquino, one thing he cannot easily shake off.His decision to change his colors and attempt to show a different political brand is a tacit admission that their past indomitable yellow brand took a serious beating to the point of oblivion. With the losses they endured in the past elections, it would have really been seen to be impossible to get back.  But come back he did and with a surprise definitive statement that they are indeed back.The same with Senator-Elect Kiko Pangilinan. He ran as a Liberal party candidate, loyal to the last breath, and that made all the difference, including of course the appeal of his popular wife Megastar Sharon Cuneta, asking the public “Bakit ba ayaw ninyo kay Kiko?”, reacting to the surveys showing he was not likely to win. If we are to look closely, the voters actually chose them because they were neither here nor there. They weren’t part of the dizzying clash of the two erstwhile political allies.To my mind, the people were looking for an alternative, even an out from this insane political bickering that actually isn’t doing anything good not only for the country, but even for protagonists themselves.  If the Liberals fielded more candidates, it would have been likely that there would be more of them in the winning circle.  But they thought it would be uphill, that they are still in the &#x27;no&#x27; list of the public.With this resounding comeback, I can’t help but ask if the Duterte pull remains.  If the yellow brand has really been sent to oblivion during his time, what could possibly explain this very strong comeback?  The Duterte army that took the place of the Yellow Army remains loud of course, but does it still have the same strength?  Speaking of strength, the same can be said of the administration, of the President. Easily, some would say that this government has not accomplished much just yet.The administration slate did not perform as expected even if it had a veritable powerhouse composed of reelectionists, popular personalities at that.What is clear is that there was a phenomenal change of heart of many voters that rewrote everything there is in any book on political equation. <div>IMPEACHMENT AND THE 2028 POLLS</div>And this is something fundamental to consider moving forward, not only with the coming impeachment, but especially in preparation to the next presidential election. Do we really have an undisputed contender now?It would seem to me that going into the next political chapter, all bets are off and none of the protagonists have any advantage. If at all, the opposing leaders should really be able to make a serious case to the public, to the people to arrive at a resolution. It cannot just be a question of numbers anymore. The lieutenants on each side themselves suffered serious setbacks. Any political personality should carefully choose which side to join and, to my mind, the best side is that which that could really convince the public.  The side that will reveal what needs to be revealed and the side that will result in accountability.If we talk about the impeachment for example, it would no longer make sense to identify each and anticipate who they will be betting their political future on. As it is it would seem quite obvious wherever one sits. It would likely be an acquittal. The Villar and Cayetano siblings are likely to vote, even defend the VP.  Even the President&#x27;s sister Sen. Imee is expected to favor VP Sara.Of course, it would be impossible for Sen. Bong Go, Bato and Robin Padilla to even carefully consider whatever evidence will be presented in the trial. Then you have Sen. Jinggoy who will likely vote for acquittal even with his eyes closed.There is therefore nothing much to expect in the Senate given this scenario.  It would seem that the die is cast. <div>SCENARIOS</div>Why go through it then, you might want to ask. And this scenario is the reason why the call for a “bloodbath” was made. They have already calculated the likely result of this political exercise. After all, it is not really a legal or criminal proceeding even as it follows, supposedly, the same procedures and standards. In the end, the senator-judges, many of whom barely know anything about legal proceedings, will be making their decisions based only on their political convictions.So, if we can no longer expect anything from the Senate, especially to ferret out the truth, then what then can still be done? Remember the brown envelope that became mysterious as the Senate then trying the impeachment of former President Erap did not want opened?  What happened after that. To my mind, so much depends on the House of Representatives, especially the prosecutors who will handle the impeachment when the trial happens in the Senate. How the prosecutors will present their case will be crucial, especially that the public will be closely watching.If there really is nothing in the allegations, it has to be clearly shown.  And this will solidify the Duterte political power. But if it is shown unequivocally that the allegations are true, it would abruptly end the force that remains with them. If there is not even an ounce of guilt, it has to be clear.  But even if the allegations are not indisputably proven, if there is even just a doubt that there was indiscretion, that would to my mind be enough for the people to react and cast judgement.It will not amount to another EDSA, especially that it is the Vice President that is on trial, but the result will be indelible in the minds of the people, regardless how the Senate votes. <div>POPULARITY AND POLITICAL STRENGTH</div>What is important is the message that is generated by the presentation in the trial. And that depends so much on the prosecution. This to my mind why the leadership of the House of Representatives is seen by the VP is crucial.One’s political strength depends fundamentally on the people’s following. And the people follow not only because one is popular but more importantly because the political leader has shown that what they do is right and true, and ultimately redounds to the benefit of the people.We have seen popularity vanish from otherwise vaunted political power.  Remember the once invincible Erap power before.  Everyone still can recall the time when anyone supported by the Yellow Army, by the well-entrenched Aquino franchise would definitely be carried by the people to victory.  Then this Erap and Yellow Power was exposed and in time gave way to a new political power.  The popularity of Arroyo, who neutered what was supposedly an indomitable Erap power, dissipated overnight.It was still Yellow Power that took back the reigns then, leading many to think that they are the undisputed political force. After all, the Aquino name has been touted ever since as “the” champion of all that is good and virtuous.In the end however, this overwhelming support became the Aquino name’s undoing.  As soon as PNoy was to leave Malacañang in 2016, the Aquino name and magic was no more.Not only did their presidential candidate lose with a huge margin, their supposedly popular party stalwarts, including the recent surprise winners Senators Kiko and Bam, lost in their re-election bids.And this upset was used as capital to build the new power in the political block, then President Rodrigo Duterte.There is truth in the popularized line in a movie that “with power comes responsibility”.  If we use the adage to this Aquino support “with overwhelming support comes overwhelming responsibility”. So much was promised and thus expected of the late PNoy’s administration, note especially that these promises added to previous promises when the mother, the late President Cory Aquino was swept to power. All these unkept promises plus the PNoy administration’s underwhelming performance spelled a costly political price. It was as if the country was in the Twilight Zone that suddenly being yellow was a liability.  Yellow became pink and still seen by many as the same and elitist.This is the very reason the win of Senators Bam and Kiko is a notable turnaround.The question now is if this elitism has been successfully expunged.  The question now is, given all these scenarios, will the Duterte name remain, especially with their patented style of brute politics.Bottomline to my mind, we cannot just count the people out. The “bobotante” that many have dismissed even before are now making it known that they are not that “bobo” and that they think and act especially when they are already pushed to act. It would seem that not everything in politics and governance can just be dumbed down to singing and dancing or plainly about popularity.   No one can foresee what’s going to happen. All these presented are already there but it is up to anyone to put two and two things together to arrive at any resolution. To my mind though, one this is clear, the proverbial vox populi vox Dei is there and felt more with the result of the last elections. It is very likely that the people will be carefully watching and making their own judgement whatever is deemed to happen by the powers that be, or those who think they have the power.

It should be noted that no one group dominated the election. Only five of the Duterte slate made it. Yes, two were endorsed by Vice President Sara Duterte, but these are from already established names in politics, Villar and Marcos.

It should be noted that no one group dominated the election. Only five of the Duterte slate made it. Yes, two were endorsed by Vice President Sara Duterte, but these are from already established names in politics, Villar and Marcos.