OPINION: End of a regime or structural reform in China? Implications on the Philippines

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OPINION: End of a regime or structural reform in China? Implications on the Philippines

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Leadership, or at the least, important decision-making changes happening with our behemoth of a neighbor that is China is a fundamental concern -- what with the now more involved presence in our country.

Even before, we have already been affected by anything that happens with them, with their economy, their industries of course, and now most especially in politics and leadership. 

Now more than ever, we have every reason to be on the watch.

The still ongoing, and seemingly escalating, albeit bit by bit, conflicting claims in the West Philippine Sea is the impetus that led to where the relationship we now have with China. More than that, it redefined the way we relate with the rest of the world.  

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On the whole, it's a mix of good and bad. As it is now, at least we are more aware of who and what we are in the way we relate with other countries.

It's not yet really there; there's so much more to fully evolve a true independent foreign policy.  Of course, it would take a really strong-willed, determined leader to finally get us there.  

Unless we change our system though, and finally put in place a functioning process of choosing right leaders and keeping them good leaders, it's as good as betting a chance in Super Lotto where there's only one in millions of chances, almost nil of a chance to get that leader.

For the longest time we have been allies with the United States. Of course. that is expected considering our history with them.  Of course, it was never a perfect relationship. And of course there were atrocities. The age of colonialism, after all, is dictated by different terms compared to the world environment that we now have.  It could have been much better then, but what was done has already been done.

Nothing can be done to turn back the hands of time, but certainly much has changed in the way once colonized countries relate to their former colonizers.  Not only the Philippines but also with other countries in the way they now engage their former masters.  It is notable that unlike before, we have now learned how to say no to them, especially when we are made to feel that we are but an inferior counterpart.

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Remember the negotiations to maintain the two huge American bases after Mount Pinatubo erupted in 1991?  The Senate then, a stark contrast to the Senate we now have, resoundingly voted no to the US' continuing control of the 2 huge bases. It wasn't an easy decision. And if we are to review how the negotiations happened, we'd learn how much we have gone from being a mere lackey of a state to them to being more of a respectable counterpart.

Not yet an equal! No doubt about that; especially that we have yet to actually appreciate what we have that many countries are interested with ever since.  

Again that would require a set of really good leaders. Could start with a really good President, but should coincide with a good supporting set of leaders. We are no longer that vassal state to the US as we have shown, at least, that we just don't say yes now to everything they say or ask.

We were able to show for example that we were no longer pushovers when we were negotiating the continued US control of the bases. We were asking for a reasonable increase of what we were getting annually for it, somewhere from 300M to 800M USD.  This was in comparison to what Egypt then was enjoying for mere "landing rights", which was already a handsome 3B USD at that time, if my memory serves me right.

We needed the money; a shot in the arm hardly cuts it. The Mt. Pinatubo eruption was devastating. It was more about money on the other hand. Definitely, it's not mainly about the country's pride.  It was more assessing what the best option was for us at that time as the goal was to recover from the losses of that natural disaster. It was,in fact, an opportunity to make sense of the value of the two huge bases and what we can do with it, this time with us taking control of it.  And we did make sense of their value and went for it.

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We showed then that we can say no, and once again we showed the US we can make our own decisions, that we can redefine our foreign policy.  

This was essentially the message of the administration of former President Duterte when suddenly we were no longer taking the cue from the US as we made important decisions.  

We redefined the country's relations with other countries. This is what can be seen at least by the naked eye; no doubt though that a thorough assessment will reveal something different and rather a cause of concern.

Everything we did before, especially in modernizing our defense capabilities, was dependent on the US.  Every major equipment or material was sourced from the US.  I remember when it was proudly announced during the time of the late PNoy that we were back to the supersonic age, that we now have supersonic jet fighters from the US.

As it turns out, the planes didn't have the missiles as it is with any fighter plane.  Apparently it was a subject of another negotiation as these fall under the category of weapons of mass destruction.  At least, that's what I remember to have been reported, at least by some.  

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Before that, we were always given hand-me-downs, part of what they were supposedly paying for the operation of the two bases we have mentioned in the foregoing.  Included in these acquisitions were used Huey H1 helicopters where many went down while being used in operations killing a good number of our uniformed personnel.

The palpable result of "redefining" our foreign relations was our being able to deal with other countries with regard to the acquisition of much needed military equipment.  The foreign policy changed as if announced to the whole world that we were ready to deal with other countries as far as our requirements are concerned.  And deal with other countries, we did.  We managed to acquire assets from countries like South Korea, Japan, Turkey, Israel and even Russia and China to name a few.  Some were even given to us as goodwill.

No doubt we gained from the foreign policy change.  There were remarkable trade offs, however; slowly, important details and ramifications surfaced upon the exit of FPPRD from Malacañang.  We did manage to tap alternative sources as far as our needs, especially in national defense, even especially during the pandemic where we needed essential health supplies like face masks. 

It would eventually be clear, however, that while we managed to steer clear from the US sphere, we became subject to the ambit of our neighboring power China.

There was no "independent" foreign policy.  We switched sides, that's what happened essentially.  The only upshot is what we have mentioned in the foregoing, hence it would appear to many that indeed we are now following our own foreign policy; we are no longer dictated by any bigger country.  

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This is far from reality however. We chose a new side, plain and simple. The question now though is if what we have chosen to join in place of our original alliances will not result to any disadvantage.

Nothing could be more obvious than the setting aside of the hard fought win of the PNoy administration in the arbitral tribunal.  

This was not even done discreetly; the President then no less, described the decision awarding the WPS to the Philippines as "nothing more than a piece of paper".  The hate of the US, in fact, of anything Western was quite obvious in the previous administration.

So many development initiatives from the European Union were either discontinued or were not pursued. The EU then reduced the budget intended for the Philippines. This is quite unusual especially if we take note of the excuse for setting aside the favorable decision of the arbitral tribunal, that is to raise funds and tap the support of China. The development funds from EU and other Western countries have always been there.  It was just a matter of tapping them and putting them to good use.  The support of China could have been "in addition" to these, anyway it's already there available for the taking.  If that were the case, then it is no doubt a plus.

The rhetoric could not be more clear; however, the pronouncements in no small terms claim that we were taken advantage of by the US, the West before, as many other developing countries were in their colonial years. Because of this, we shouldn't be friends with them. The support that we continue to receive from them should in fact be part of some reparation, at least that's what I could think of as the reasoning of the previous administration.  Apparently that is not the case if we are to make sense of the reasons raised why we shouldn't have anything to do with them. It was made to appear that any and all assistance from these Western countries come with strings attached.

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The question then, is if the assistance from China does not come with strings attached.  In fact the better question even is, if the assistance from them actually qualifies as "assistance".  We can of course compare the terms of the agreement to what we had with other countries before.  For starters, one might want to begin comparing our development agreements with Japan, specifically with infrastructure projects and compare it with what we managed to have with China. Doing this will give us a better picture.

The strings attached with the supposed assistance with China were quite obvious however.  When a Filipino fishing boat was rammed and sunk by a Chinese vessel in 2019, just like dismissing the arbitral tribunal decision, it was dismissed again by then President Duterte no less as a "little maritime accident".  On top of that we were told "not to meddle" with the incident, as if we were not involved, as if we were not the aggrieved party.

The President could've just said that an investigation will be undertaken and that we shouldn't be hasty.  At the least he could have reassured the public that the government is doing everything in its capacity to take care of those hurt and that they're pursuing everything that can be possibly pursued.  

But no, perhaps it was simply not his style.  And that style seems to suggest that he was more concerned with the interest of China and not of his country.

He sounded no less than the mouthpiece of a foreign power that has been emphasizing in no small terms that they are bigger and that we can only relate with them as a lesser country.  It was quite obvious if one comes to think of it.  The message no less from our own President is that we should just take the cue from China and say no more.  Again, this is consistent with how things were handled at that time.

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We should just say yes to China and reject anything from the West.  As already mentioned, we said no to EU assistance; EU has been assisting us ever since.  The President said no to 6.1 million euro assistance from the EU because of "sovereignty issues".  Again as if China's assistance doesn't come with strings attached. 

Important policies or initiatives that were identified with the US were also superseded.  The National Coast Watch initiative, intended to ensure coordination of all agencies that have maritime and security functions, was set aside.  The same initiative was successfully put in place in Ukraine and has been proven to be useful in their struggle to remain free from Russia.  This is consistent with the then President's pronouncements and policy actions on the WPS.

If none of the assumptions gleaned from the foregoing is true; if we did not become vassals to China then we should have been better able to extricate ourselves from them.  Unfortunately, it would seem that they have become well entrenched in the Philippines that there's so much of what is happening in the country that involves them, whether in government or in public.

China's interest in the Philippines has been made quite obvious by a Chinese national becoming a local chief executive.  Anyone can easily say that there's no proof of the Chinese government having anything to do with it.  Then again one might have to ask, why would a foreign national want to be a local politician in another country that s/he would not hesitate to contravene any national law just to be able to run and win?

This incident has also led authorities to have a deeper appreciation of POGOs in the country.  This led to considerable changes in policies, in regulating POGOs that were introduced in the country during the past administration.  In 2020 for example, when so many illegal activities are becoming noticeable to the public, FPRRD defended it saying "I will assure you ‘under my oath of office as president of this Republic, as elected by you, POGOs... are clean".  He emphasized in the same interview that POGOs have been contributing at least 2 Billion pesos to the government every month.

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Additional funds to the government no doubt is a plus.  It helps the government achieve many of its objectives and provides much needed resources in its performance of important functions in society.  Policy wise on the other hand, one has to ask if the advantages outweigh the disadvantages.  The many reports linking POGOs to a lot of illegal activities should have prompted the government as early as 2020 when the President was quoted defending POGOs, to determine what can be done to at the least make sure that it only benefits us and not lead to our detriment.

Unfortunately, despite increasing complaints, authorities just turned a blind eye at that time.  It had to take more years for the government to finally acknowledge and act on the countless atrocities already reported related to POGOs.  There were not only "alleged killings, tortures, human trafficking and cyber scams that eventually led to the filling of countless criminal cases".  It was also determined that POGOs were linked to organized crime and even to the successful running and winning of former Mayor Alice Guo who was found to be a Chinese national.

President Bongbong Marcos through Executive Order 74 banned and closed down companies "collectively known as Philippine offshore gaming operators citing ‘national security and public order' as paramount reasons".  The findings, not only of the congressional hearings but even of the many raids revealing sprawling complexes and reports of Chinese communities multiplying as a result of POGOs' operations have really become a cause for concern.

Social media will also show how much China has become interested with the Philippines where anything and everything that one says about China will surely generate much reaction from trolls.  And these trolls are quite similar if not the same with the trolls that defend if not promote Duterte in social media.  Quite obvious as the style and language are the same, uncouth and reluctant or likely unable to engage in a more substantial discourse.  Character assassination is always the resort of choice in engaging in posts that run contrary to anything related to China.

This is quite unusual as much of the negative sentiments to China expressed in social media have always been related to incidents or issues in the WPS.  And so many of these negative sentiments are in defense of Philippine interest. Why would a Filipino be defending China when we haven't seen anything constructive in the way they have been dealing with the issue? On the contrary, it has led to real damage and harm to our Filipino fisherfolk and even to our uniformed personnel and our vessels.

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One only has to take a much closer look and check on the provenance of these rude reactions and posts.  It will be a surprise to say the least to find out that many of these are in fact not of Philippine origin.  Experts have shown the continuing increase of foreign initiated activities in social media in the Philippines.  It should be a subject of investigation how much fake news have been generated and by whom and from where for example, in efforts to influence the recently concluded midterm elections.

The question now is if any and all of these is bound to change with the emerging change or changes in leadership in China.  Reports claimed that Xi Jinping has lost control to Zhang Youxia who is backed by the military.  Needless to say, anything and everything of significance that happens in the government in China requires the participation of the military.  If Zhang is supported by the military, there's no reason to doubt the reports saying Xi has been stripped of important powers.

Of course, in a patented tradition of China, this change have not been reported much by the mainstream media.  There are just some experts who have started openly talking and analyzing every development since talks started that much control was being ceded to a committee and that key officials identified to Xi have been slowly replaced.

It was finally reported just about last week, that on 30 June, the Politburo met and was presided by Xi himself.  This might suggest that the changes were initiated by Xi himself.  The ramifications of the meeting however only leads to questions why Xi would initiate such changes himself, that is if one assumes it was in fact his initiative.

The purpose of the meeting was to "review the regulations on the work of the Central Party Decision-making and Coordination body".  This is a new body created to make important decisions that used to be the role of the Party Secretary who is Xi.  In effect, Xi will no longer be making crucial decisions or at the very least will have to share this fundamental function with the new body.  This body is reportedly "expansive", very much unlike Xi's advisory body that was convened precisely "to advise".

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This coordination body is now the highest governing body.  It now controls the full chain of power from policy formulation to exclusion.  China experts say it would appear, considering the timing of the announcement, that this super body has already been operating for some time; likely in secret.  It has now made public so as to prevent some quarters from circumventing or denying its decisions.  In other words it is now made official.

Whether this will lead to a change in leadership, that someone will take the place of Xi as President is a question that remains.  Could it also mean that China is now finally moving to a more "party-based", that is more collegial a system of government and no longer as authoritarian and dependent on a single powerful leader?  This is a significant step towards being more "democratic" or participative.

What is important for us though is to anticipate changes if there are in fact changes that could be expected in the way China has been handling issues related to the Philippines.  Will China still be acting the same with respect to the WPS?  Will they remain a bully in other words?  Ultimately, will China still be interested in making sure the leadership in the Philippine government will be to their favor?

There are also other changes that might be of interest to us.  The US and China has recently come to an important agreement.  There's talk that Chinese companies will now be subject to the International laws and regulations on trade.  This is unprecedented as it is what had made Chinese industries dominant recently.  There is every reason to keep a watchful eye as big changes are happening with the impact of these important developments.  Hopefully this time we can act more in our interest and not only contingent to another big country.

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