Camille Naredo

Three Chinese Black RHIBs mounted with armaments, three Fast Boat and five White RHIBs were observed within Ayungin Shoal on August 20. Handout/AFP

Three Chinese Black RHIBs mounted with armaments, three Fast Boat and five White RHIBs were observed within Ayungin Shoal on August 20.

Article (news)

Ayungin Shoal

Job Manahan

ABS-CBN News

<div><span class="fr-img-caption fr-fic fr-dib" style="width:960px"><span class="fr-img-wrap"><img src="https://od2-image-api.abs-cbn.com/prod/editorImage/1755933969462viber_image_2025-08-21_22-21-41-259.jpg" style="width:960px" class="fr-fic fr-dib" alt="Three Chinese Black RHIBs mounted with armaments, three Fast Boat and five White RHIBs were observed within Ayungin Shoal on August 20. Handout/AFPThree Chinese Black RHIBs mounted with armaments, three Fast Boat and five White RHIBs were observed within Ayungin Shoal on August 20. Handout/AFP"/><span class="fr-inner" style="text-align:left">Three Chinese Black RHIBs mounted with armaments, three Fast Boat and five White RHIBs were observed within Ayungin Shoal on August 20. <em>Handout/AFP</em></span></span></span></div><p>MANILA -- The Philippines must prepare for any possibilities as China continues its activities in Ayungin Shoal, particularly near the grounded ship BRP Sierra Madre, analysts told ABS-CBN News this Saturday. </p><p>The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) earlier reported &quot;unusual&quot; activity of Chinese maritime forces in the Shoal, where BRP Sierra Madre has served as a Philippine naval outpost since 1999.</p><p>A video released by the AFP showed two Philippine rubber boats blocking the attempt of a rigid hull inflatable boat (RHIB) from the China Coast Guard (CCG) to go near the BRP Sierra Madre.</p><div><a class="fr-green fr-strong" href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/nation/2025/8/22/afp-says-chinese-activities-in-ayungin-shoal-unusual-1912">READ: AFP says Chinese activities in Ayungin Shoal &#x27;unusual&#x27;</a></div><p>Prof. Chester Cabalza, founding president of the International Development and Security Cooperation, said China&#x27;s movement there should be a cause of alarm. </p><p>&quot;Very disturbing itong instance na ito dahil unang-una, nagkaroon tayo ng agreement with them before on resupply mission and for the past months, medyo tahimik ang area na yun,&quot; Cabalza told ABS-CBN News. </p><p>&quot;After ng collision na yun, mukhang gumagawa sila ng ingay ngayon and that is very unlawful and at the same time unacceptable kasi basically mukhang babaliin nila ang usapan ng Pilipinas at China,&quot; he added. </p><p>Chinese personnel were recently seen carrying what seemed to be advanced weapons while aboard a RHIB, which could mean they are preparing to take over the Ayungin Shoal.</p><p>&quot;That could be one of the scenarios. They are the de facto controllers of Scarborough Shoal. Naagaw nila yun sa atin way back 2012,&quot; he said. </p><p>&quot;Kung hindi nila makuha by lawful means, probably they could do forceful retake of the Ayungin Shoal. Kung makikita mo may swarming of… drones, this time may surveillance na silang ginagawa. Medyo sophisticated na actions ang kanilang pwedeng gawin. Possibly, if we try to calculate their actions right now, may tendency na pwede nilang gawin ang scenario na violence will really happen,&quot; he said. </p><p>Cabalza maintained that greyzone strategies do &quot;not have definite actions.&quot; </p><div><a class="fr-green fr-strong" href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/nation/2025/8/22/dfa-ayungin-rore-missions-under-provisional-understanding-with-china-2320">READ: Ayungin RORE missions under &#x27;provisional understanding&#x27; with China -- DFA</a></div><div><br/></div><div><strong>NOT GOING TO WAR </strong></div><p>This means there are multiple interpretations in the scenario – which was why the Philippines should stand guard for any possibilities. </p><p>&quot;Mahirap na i-actualize natin, that we are activating the MDT (mutual defense treaty) and we are calling for the support of the US. In cases of wars and conflicts, biglaan ito nangyayari. No party would definitely open their cards and tell, &#x27;it&#x27;s official, we are going to war,&#x27;&quot; he said. </p><p>Professor Renato de Castro, an international relations expert at the De La Salle University, agreed with Cabalza. </p><p>&quot;We have to prepare for any possibilities, eventualities. And again the point is we want to defend our territory so we have to check the prospect that somebody has to pay the price,&quot; de Castro. </p><p>For the expert, China&#x27;s actions – still a reflection on the Aug. 11 incident – &quot;signal they are willing to use force.&quot; </p><div><a class="fr-green fr-strong" href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/nation/2025/8/16/-not-provoking-anybody-pcg-refutes-chinas-allegations-after-collision-of-ships-1306">READ: PCG tells China: &#x27;It&#x27;s not us who is provoking anybody&#x27;</a></div><div><a class="fr-green fr-strong" href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/nation/2025/8/18/-we-will-not-send-warships-ph-keen-on-civilian-led-approach-in-bajo-de-masinloc-1838">READ: PH keen on civilian-led approach in Bajo de Masinloc</a></div><p>&quot;Let&#x27;s just prepare for possibilities. We have to come up with a contingency plan, possibility of casualties, how would you respond to kinetic force used against the Philippines and of course, we have to [think] what kind of assistance we should be getting from our treaty ally – which is the US,&quot; he said. </p><p>Asked if Manila could invoke the mutual defense treaty (MDT) with the United States should tensions escalate, De Castro answered in the affirmative. </p><p>&quot;We have to explain to our people that it does not automatically mean it would lead to war. The MDT provided for both the Philippines and the United States to consult each other. The result of that consultation remains to be seen,&quot; he said. </p><p>A Chinese rotary aircraft and a Chinese unmanned aerial vehicle were also spotted flying over Ayungin Shoal.</p><p>Overall, the AFP monitored 25 vessels and RHIBs from the CCG and Chinese maritime militia, and 2 aerial assets from China.</p><p>In July last year, the Philippines and China agreed on a &quot;provisional arrangement&quot; for resupplying Filipino troops stationed in Ayungin Shoal following a series of escalating confrontations in the West Philippine Sea.</p><p>Manila and Beijing upheld this &quot;understanding&quot; during the 10th Bilateral Consultation Mechanism on the South China Sea on January 17.</p><p>A handful of Filipino troops stationed on the rusty BRP Sierra Madre warship require frequent resupplies for food, water and other necessities as well as transport for personnel rotations.</p><div><br/></div><div><strong>RELATED VIDEO:</strong></div><div><span class="fr-video fr-deletable fr-fvc fr-dvb fr-draggable" contenteditable="false" draggable="true"><iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/8SFDEQo1g0k?&amp;wmode=opaque&amp;rel=0" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" class="fr-draggable"></iframe></span><br/></div>

<p>The Philippines must prepare for any possibilities as China continues its activities in Ayungin Shoal, particularly near the grounded ship BRP Sierra Madre, analysts told ABS-CBN News this Saturday. </p>

The Philippines must prepare for any possibilities as China continues its activities in Ayungin Shoal, particularly near the grounded ship BRP Sierra Madre, analysts told ABS-CBN News this Saturday.

PH must prepare for any eventualities as China ramps up activities in Ayungin – analysts

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PH must prepare for any eventualities as China ramps up activities in Ayungin – analysts

Job Manahan,

ABS-CBN News

Published Aug 23, 2025 03:35 PM PHT

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Updated Aug 23, 2025 07:10 PM PHT

Read More:

Ayungin Shoal

China

BRP Sierra Madre

West Philippine Sea

maritime dispute

Armed Forces of the Philippines

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