Commuters struggle to catch a ride along Aurora Blvd. in Cubao, Quezon City as torrential rain brought by Severe Tropical Storm Kristine continues to inundate parts of Luzon on October 24, 2024. Maria Tan, ABS-CBN News 

The cooling weather phenomenon La Nina could appear in coming months, but if it does it will likely be too "weak and short-lived" to significantly impact soaring global temperatures, the UN said Wednesday.

There is currently a 55-percent likelihood of La Nina conditions emerging by the end of February, the United Nations' World Meteorological Organization said in its latest update.

There was a similar chance of the phenomenon developing between February and April, it added.

The WMO had earlier this year voiced hope the return of La Nina would help lower temperatures slightly after months of global heat records fueled in part by La Nina's opposite number, the warming El Nino weather pattern, which gripped the planet for a year from June 2023.

But WMO chief Celeste Saulo warned in Wednesday's statement that a possible La Nina would have little impact following a 2024, which is on track to be the hottest year on record.

"Even if a La Nina event does emerge, its short-term cooling impact will be insufficient to counterbalance the warming effect of record heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere," she said.

"Even in the absence of El Nino or La Nina conditions since May, we have witnessed an extraordinary series of extreme weather events, including record-breaking rainfall and flooding which have unfortunately become the new norm in our changing climate."

La Nina refers to a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that cools the ocean surface temperatures in large swathes of the tropical Pacific Ocean, coupled with winds, rains and changes in atmospheric pressure.

In many locations, especially in the tropics, La Nina produces the opposite climate impacts to El Nino, which heats up the surface of the oceans, leading to drought in some parts of the world and triggering heavy downpours elsewhere.

While both are natural climate events, WMO stressed they were "taking place in the broader context of human-induced climate change, which is increasing global temperatures, exacerbating extreme weather and climate, and impacting seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns".

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