Jamaine Punzalan

Devotees hear First Friday mass at Quiapo Church in Manila on March 7, 2025. Jonathan Cellona, ABS-CBN News/File

Article (news)

Agence France-Presse

<div><span class="fr-img-caption fr-fic fr-dib" style="width:960px;display:block" width="960"><span class="fr-img-wrap"><img src="https://od2-image-api.abs-cbn.com/prod/editorImage/177942161451420250307first-friday-quiapo-JC5.jpg" style="width:960px" class="fr-fic fr-dib" width="960"/><span class="fr-inner" style="text-align:left">Devotees hear First Friday mass at Quiapo Church in Manila on March 7, 2025. Jonathan Cellona, ABS-CBN News/File </span></span></span></div><p>Forecasters say a potentially &quot;super&quot; <a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/weather-traffic/2026/4/22/pagasa-issues-el-ni-o-alert-1239">El Nino</a> is rapidly taking shape in the Pacific -- but whether it evolves into a history-making event could hinge on fickle winds and other volatile atmospheric shifts.</p><p>The fast-warming tropical Pacific is pointing to a major event but a crucial weakening of trade winds -- capable of turbocharging or throttling the phenomenon -- has yet to materialize.</p><p>Scientists say these interactions are notoriously complex and difficult to predict -- making it too early to confidently forecast how powerful this El Nino could become.</p><div><br/></div><div><strong>FLASHING RED </strong></div><div><br/></div><p>The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says there is about an 80 percent chance of El Nino developing by July.</p><p>Sea temperatures in key El Nino zones of the equatorial Pacific are rapidly rising, and an enormous pool of abnormally warm water is massing beneath the surface.</p><p>Several leading weather services are predicting Pacific sea temperatures could surge 2.5C or more above average later this year -- exceptionally high projections.</p><p>Just three events -- 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16 -- have breached 2C since the first major El Nino recorded in the modern era in 1877/78.</p><p>Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the UK Met Office, said this El Nino could be the strongest in decades or &quot;even be of record strength&quot;.</p><p>&quot;There&#x27;s definitely something coming. We&#x27;re very confident about that, and it looks like it will be a big event,&quot; he told AFP.</p><div><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/business/2026/4/10/govt-readies-aid-as-el-ni-o-expected-to-raise-agriculture-costs-1529">Govt readies aid as El Niño expected to raise agriculture costs </a></div><div><br/></div><div><strong>WILY WINDS</strong></div><div><br/></div><p>NOAA forecasts a one-in-three chance this episode will <a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/weather-traffic/2026/3/2/el-nino-may-return-in-2026-and-make-planet-even-hotter-1451">hit 2C or above</a> -- crossing into what is dubbed &quot;super El Nino&quot; territory.</p><p>But key pieces of the puzzle had yet to fall into place, said Michelle L&#x27;Heureux, NOAA&#x27;s El Nino-Southern Oscillation lead.</p><p>El Ninos build strength as the ocean and atmosphere increasingly &quot;couple&quot; over the summer months, shifting air pressure, cloud patterns and winds.</p><p>This feedback loop can turn a modest El Nino into a blockbuster event, supercharging heat and triggering chaotic weather worldwide.</p><p>A hallmark of the strongest El Ninos is the weakening of trade winds that blow east to west across the equator.</p><p>But those winds are unpredictable and can strengthen unexpectedly, said L&#x27;Heureux.</p><p>&quot;When that happens, it pauses the growth of El Nino or even reverses it,&quot; she told AFP.</p><p>&quot;Ultimately the strength of this event will be likely influenced by these details, like the low-level winds, which we cannot predict many months in advance.&quot;</p><div><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/weather-traffic/2026/4/23/15-provinces-already-experiencing-drought-pagasa-1002">15 provinces already experiencing drought – PAGASA </a></div><div><br/></div><div><strong>HEAT INCOMING</strong></div><div><br/></div><p>El Nino tends to peak around December but ocean heat releases slowly and can drive up global temperatures the following years.</p><p>Many record-hot years -- including 1998, 2010, 2016, 2023 and 2024 -- followed major El Nino events or developed alongside them.</p><p>Climate scientists interviewed by AFP said global heat records could fall in 2026 -- but 2027 was the year to watch.</p><p>There &quot;could easily be a new record level of global warmth in 2027&quot; if an extreme El Nino takes shape this year, said Scaife.</p><p>It remains unclear whether Earth&#x27;s warming is influencing El Nino intensity. The last event in 2023/24 was weaker than episodes in 1982/83 and 1997/98, making any trend hard to pin down.</p><p>Scientists stress that stronger El Ninos raise the odds of more severe impacts -- but do not guarantee them.</p><p>Yet even a weaker event now unfolds in a world transformed by climate change, with extra heat and moisture loading an already feverish atmosphere and oceans.</p><p>That means El Nino&#x27;s impacts could become more extreme even if the phenomenon itself is not growing stronger.</p><p>&quot;The impacts of this El Nino -- on things like rainfall and of course temperature -- are riding on top of climate change, and could well be larger than anything we&#x27;ve seen in the past,&quot; said Scaife.</p><div><br/></div><div><strong>DIFFERENT WORLD</strong></div><div><br/></div><p>Every El Nino is different, but major events often follow familiar patterns: drought across parts of the Amazon, Indonesia and Australia, disrupted Indian monsoons, and shifting rainfall throughout the tropics.</p><p>But climate change has shifted the baseline so dramatically that &quot;history is a poorer guide for seasonal predictions,&quot; climatologist Felicity Gamble at Australia&#x27;s Bureau of Meteorology told AFP.</p><p>&quot;What happened during an El Nino event 20 years ago is probably quite different to how it might manifest these days.&quot;</p><p>Forecasts are also complicated by climate-driven ocean warming, which makes it easier to trigger El Nino conditions and harder to distinguish La Nina, its opposite cooling phase, against a hotter backdrop, Gamble said.</p><p>The Bureau of Meteorology and NOAA have started filtering out background warming to improve forecast accuracy. Other weather agencies are adopting similar adjusted benchmarks.</p><p>Even still, Australia is predicting El Nino could reach 2.8C -- potentially a history-making event.</p><div><br/></div><div><strong>RELATED STORIES:</strong></div><div><a href="http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/business/2026/5/21/upper-wawa-dam-to-add-water-supply-amid-looming-el-ni-o-2315">Upper Wawa Dam to add water supply amid looming El Niño </a><br/><a href="http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/business/2026/5/22/visayas-on-5th-straight-day-of-yellow-alert-1014">Visayas on 5th straight day of yellow alert </a><br/><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/weather-traffic/2026/5/5/-super-el-nino-raises-fears-for-asia-reeling-from-middle-east-conflict-1008">&#x27;Super El Nino&#x27; raises fears for Asia reeling from Middle East conflict </a></div><div><span class="fr-video fr-deletable fr-fvc fr-dvb fr-draggable" contenteditable="false" draggable="true"><iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Ji0ABz0319k?&amp;wmode=opaque&amp;rel=0" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" class="fr-draggable"></iframe></span><span class="fr-video fr-deletable fr-fvc fr-dvb fr-draggable" contenteditable="false" draggable="true"><iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/9w9_yFFEauA?&amp;wmode=opaque&amp;rel=0" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" class="fr-draggable"></iframe></span><strong></strong><br/></div>

<p>Forecasters say a potentially "super" El Nino is rapidly taking shape in the Pacific -- but whether it evolves into a history-making event could hinge on fickle winds and other volatile atmospheric shifts.</p>

Forecasters say a potentially "super" El Nino is rapidly taking shape in the Pacific -- but whether it evolves into a history-making event could hinge on fickle winds and other volatile atmospheric shifts.

Something coming: What scientists know about a potential 'super' El Nino

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Something coming: What scientists know about a potential 'super' El Nino

Agence France-Presse

Published May 22, 2026 11:51 AM PHT

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