Cheyenne Suarez

Will Trump's actions force Asian allies to embrace China?

Article (news)

Deutsche Welle

<p>Since returning to the White House over six weeks ago, President Donald Trump has rapidly and dramatically changed US positions vis-à-vis Russia&#x27;s war in Ukraine, much to the chagrin of Kyiv and Washington&#x27;s other European allies.</p><div><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/world/2025/3/4/trump-puts-us-allies-on-notice-power-comes-first-1023" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Trump puts US allies on notice - power comes first</a></div><p>The stunning showdown between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office on Friday, US statements ruling out Ukraine&#x27;s entry into the NATO military alliance and the pause of all US military aid to Kyiv this week, among other moves, have been viewed by many as part of Washington&#x27;s attempts to cooperate with Moscow and put pressure on Kyiv to accept a ceasefire deal on Russia&#x27;s terms.</p><div><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/world/2025/3/5/us-pauses-intelligence-sharing-with-ukraine-0113" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">US pauses intelligence sharing with Ukraine</a></div><div><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/world/2025/3/4/trump-pauses-aid-to-ukraine-after-zelensky-clash-0940" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Trump pauses aid to Ukraine after Zelensky clash</a></div><div><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/world/2025/2/23/zelensky-offers-to-resign-in-exchange-for-ukrainian-nato-membership-0106" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Zelensky offers to resign in exchange for Ukrainian NATO membership</a></div><p>European leaders are contemplating a united response — including increased support for Ukraine as well as measures to boost national militaries — in the face of Trump&#x27;s actions that could put the entire post-1945 security architecture on the continent in jeopardy.</p><div><span class="fr-video fr-deletable fr-fvc fr-dvb fr-draggable" contenteditable="false" draggable="true"><iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/yBt5DMHmGW8?&amp;wmode=opaque&amp;rel=0" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" class="fr-draggable"></iframe></span><br/></div><div><strong>Growing concerns in Japan, South Korea</strong></div><p>The dramatic developments are being keenly watched even in Asia, with US allies like Japan, South Korea and the Philippines increasingly concerned about Trump&#x27;s commitment to their security.</p><p>Unlike European leaders, however, the governments in Tokyo and Seoul have largely kept quiet out of fear of attracting the attention of a leader upon whom their security and trade largely depend.</p><p>Both Japan and South Korea rely heavily on the US for their defense, with over 80,000 troops stationed in both countries.</p><p>They can ill afford to entirely reject the US as their immediate neighbors — China, North Korea and Russia — are increasingly militarily powerful and assertive.</p><p>Japan and South Korea are looking at the global situation now and they are both asking themselves if they too are about to be abandoned by Washington and &quot;get the Ukraine treatment from [Chinese leader] Xi Jinping,&quot; said Jeff Kingston, director of Asian Studies at Temple University in Tokyo.</p><p>He pointed out that Tokyo and Seoul have been &quot;frenemies&quot; for a long time due to historical issues.</p><p>But, &quot;inadvertently, Trump may have enhanced the solidarity of these two nations as they feel threatened by his erratic diplomacy,&quot; the expert told DW.</p><div><strong>Little value in traditional alliances?</strong></div><p>Even among conservatives in both countries who supported Trump&#x27;s policies before the election, there is growing distaste for his decisions and fear that their own long-held alliances hold little value to Trump.</p><p>Yoichi Shimada, a politician with the right-wing Conservative Party, admits he was a Trump supporter before he returned to the White House.</p><p>But he said he now has serious reservations about many of Trump&#x27;s policies, and expects the US president to soon demand a greater price for deploying US troops in Japan.</p><p>&quot;While the traditional understanding has been that these troops are there to advance Washington&#x27;s security policies in the region, Trump sees them as a tool to get more money from the host nation,&quot; Shimada said.</p><p>&quot;He knows that Japan cannot make security or other deals with China or North Korea, so we have no choice but to agree,&quot; he said. &quot;I expect the demand for Tokyo to pay more to come at any time.&quot;</p><div><strong>Signaling a stronger US pivot to Indo-Pacific?</strong></div><p>Washington&#x27;s latest moves have also sent alarm bells throughout Southeast Asia, where several countries and territories depend on US security promises in their escalating tensions with Beijing.</p><p>While some politicians and commentators in the region believe they signal a stronger US pivot towards Asia, they &quot;should not be too optimistic about that prospect,&quot; Khac Giang Nguyen, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, told DW.</p><p>A number of senior officials in the Trump administration have spent the past few years calling for the US to focus its security capabilities entirely on the Indo-Pacific region.</p><p>US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said in Berlin last month that &quot;stark strategic realities prevent the United States of America from being primarily focused on the security of Europe.&quot;</p><p>Washington, he added, was now focusing on China, which has &quot;the capability and intent to threaten our homeland and core national interests in the Indo-Pacific.&quot;</p><div><strong>What it means for Taiwan</strong></div><p>On Tuesday, Elbridge Colby, Trump&#x27;s nominee to become undersecretary of defense for policy, raised the issue of Taiwan while addressing the Senate Armed Services Committee.</p><p>He stressed that Washington had important national security interests in Taiwan, even if the island&#x27;s status was not &quot;existential&quot; to the United States.</p><p>&quot;Losing Taiwan, Taiwan&#x27;s fall, would be a disaster for American interests,&quot; Colby said.</p><div><span class="fr-video fr-deletable fr-fvc fr-dvb fr-draggable" contenteditable="false" draggable="true"><iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FTU9AanCnyU?&amp;wmode=opaque&amp;rel=0" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" class="fr-draggable"></iframe></span><br/></div><p>He also criticized the territory&#x27;s government, saying that it spends &quot;well below” 3% of GDP on defense when &quot;they should be [spending] more like 10%.&quot;</p><p>Taiwan, a self-ruled democratic island viewed by Beijing as a Chinese province, is a major source of tension between the US and China.</p><p>Washington is Taiwan&#x27;s most important international backer and arms supplier despite the lack of formal diplomatic ties between the two sides.</p><p>And Beijing has vowed to eventually take control of the island, even by force if necessary. Taipei has sought closer security ties with the US since Trump returned to power.</p><div><span class="fr-video fr-deletable fr-fvc fr-dvb fr-draggable" contenteditable="false" draggable="true"><iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/50JmJJnLMWk?&amp;wmode=opaque&amp;rel=0" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" class="fr-draggable"></iframe></span><br/></div><div><br/></div><div><strong>Boosting defense capabilities and cooperation</strong></div><p>For many in Southeast Asia, the Trump administration&#x27;s apparent support for the Russian point of view, including voting with Moscow at the United Nations, has sent out a clear signal that Washington is currently &quot;more concerned with raw power and not the rules-based international order,&quot; Zachary Abuza, a Southeast Asia expert and professor at the National War College in Washington, told DW.</p><p>Southeast Asian countries should be &quot;very concerned&quot; that the United States might abandon them if it pursues a grand bargain with China, he added.</p><p>Despite Trump imposing tariffs on Chinese goods, and President Xi retaliating in kind, some analysts in the region suspect that Trump may eventually seek a &quot;big deal&quot; to end US-China tensions, which would leave Southeast Asian states helpless in their disputes with Beijing.</p><p>Joshua Espena, a resident fellow at the Manila-based think tank International Development and Security Cooperation, told DW that most countries in the region will pursue &quot;like-minded autonomy.&quot;</p><div><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/world/2025/3/2/marcos-should-be-careful-in-dealing-with-trump-after-heated-zelensky-meeting-analyst-1601" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Marcos should be careful in dealing with Trump after heated Zelensky meeting: analyst</a></div><p>For instance, the Philippines, a US treaty ally with an increasingly fractious relationship with China, will strive to keep Washington on board while it fast-tracks the buildup of its own defense capabilities and expands security cooperation with other countries in the region, such as Japan, Australia, South Korea and New Zealand.</p><p>&quot;This will not be an easy feat,&quot; Espena said, adding that most Southeast Asian countries, including the Philippines, have domestic political actors who favor appeasement with China, now the world&#x27;s second-largest military power.</p><p>&quot;At the end of the day, no country can replace the US as a security provider. As such, they will grit their teeth and hope for the best,&quot; Ian Storey, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, told DW.</p><div><strong>South Asia a low priority?</strong></div><p>South Asia as a region has so far not seemed to be a priority for the Trump administration.</p><p>Trump met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi last month and agreed to boost defense cooperation with New Delhi amid mutual concerns over China&#x27;s advancing military capabilities and growing clout in the Indo-Pacific.</p><div><span class="fr-video fr-deletable fr-fvc fr-dvb fr-draggable" contenteditable="false" draggable="true"><iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/sPSHs1sfHug?&amp;wmode=opaque&amp;rel=0" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" class="fr-draggable"></iframe></span><br/></div><p>But the US administration has so far said little about engaging with others in the region, including Pakistan and the Taliban rulers in Afghanistan.</p><p>Madiha Afzal, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, said that the Biden administration had already turned away from Pakistan and the country &quot;doesn&#x27;t appear to be on Trump&#x27;s radar either.&quot;</p><p>&quot;The biggest Trump effect for Pakistan is development aid cuts, including for Afghan refugees it is hosting,&quot; she told DW.</p><p>On Tuesday, while addressing a joint session of Congress, Trump thanked Pakistan for arresting Mohammad Sharifullah, the person blamed for killing 13 US service members during the withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021.</p><p>Trump said Sharifullah was on his way to the United States to face justice.</p><p>Hours after Trump&#x27;s speech, Pakistan&#x27;s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said Islamabad &quot;will continue to partner closely with the United States in securing regional peace and stability.&quot;</p><p>Azeem Khalid, an international relations expert who specializes in Pakistan-China ties, said despite Trump&#x27;s unpredictability, Islamabad can never think about abandoning its partnership with the US.</p><p>&quot;Going away from Washington could complicate Pakistan&#x27;s security partnerships and regional influence, given the US&#x27;s global clout,&quot; he underlined, adding that against this backdrop, Islamabad will likely opt for balancing its ties with Washington and Beijing &quot;to mitigate risks and maximize benefits.&quot;</p><div><strong>Julian Ryall from Tokyo, Haroon Janjua from Islamabad and David Hutt contributed to this article.</strong></div><div><strong>Edited by: Keith Walker</strong></div>

<p>Washington's Ukraine diplomacy in recent weeks has raised questions about the reliability of US commitment to the security of its Asian allies.</p>

Washington's Ukraine diplomacy in recent weeks has raised questions about the reliability of US commitment to the security of its Asian allies.