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Southeast Asia walks tightrope between China and US

Article (news)

Deutsche Welle

<div><span class="fr-img-caption fr-fic fr-dib" style="width:950px"><span class="fr-img-wrap"><img src="https://od2-image-api.abs-cbn.com/prod/editorImage/174510989180220250420.jpg" style="width:950px" class="fr-fic fr-dib"/><span class="fr-inner" style="text-align:left">In this file photo, US President Donald Trump (left) shakes hand with China&#x27;s President Xi Jinping at the end of a press conference at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on November 9, 2017. <em>Fred Dufour, AFP, file</em></span></span></span></div><p>Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Cambodia on Thursday for the last leg of his week-long tour of Southeast Asia, which included earlier stops in Vietnam and Malaysia.  </p><p>Although his visit was scheduled months ago, it fell at an opportune moment for Beijing, with the international trade system in disarray because of the actions of US President Donald Trump.  </p><p>On April 2, Trump launched his tariff onslaught, unveiling steep &quot;reciprocal&quot; duties on goods coming into the US from most of its trading partners, including 49% tariffs on products from Cambodia, 46% on those coming from Vietnam and between 20%-30% on most other Southeast Asian countries.</p><div><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/business/2025/4/14/trump-warns-no-country-off-the-hook-on-tariffs-0840">Trump warns no country &#x27;off the hook&#x27; on tariffs</a></div><p>The tariff turmoil has hit trade and investment flows as well as financial markets. Most countries, including in Southeast Asia, are currently predicting a major global economic downturn. </p><p>Several agencies have cut their growth forecasts for the region this year.</p><p>Shortly after the high tariffs came into effect on April 9, Trump announced that the new duties would be paused for 90 days — except those on China which faces combined tariffs of 145% — while the US negotiates bespoke deals with each country.</p><div><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/business/2025/4/12/dti-trump-tariffs-could-mean-more-sales-of-coconut-oil-mangoes-other-ph-exports-1147">DTI: Trump tariffs could mean more sales of coconut oil, mangoes, other PH exports</a></div><div><strong>Projecting China as more responsible power</strong></div><p>At a meeting with Vietnam&#x27;s Communist Party General Secretary To Lam on Monday, Xi said that their two countries &quot;have brought the world valuable stability and certainty&quot; in a &quot;turbulent world.&quot;</p><p>The world is &quot;standing at the turning point of history,&quot; Xi said, and China and Southeast Asian states &quot;should move forward with joint hands.&quot;</p><p>Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington, told DW that the Chinese leader is pushing on &quot;an open door.&quot;</p><p>&quot;Xi has portrayed China, which has over $980 billion in trade with Southeast Asia, as a force for economic stability and multilateralism,&quot; said Abuza. &quot;In contrast to Washington, Xi is presenting Beijing as predictable, cooperative, and committed to win-win trade and investment.&quot;</p><p>For more than a decade, the United States and other Western countries have attempted to portray China as a &quot;revisionist power,&quot; a country that abuses international laws — especially in its aggression against rival claimants to territory in the South China Sea — and disrupts global trade through dumping low-cost goods on poor countries.</p><p>However, because of Trump&#x27;s &quot;America First&quot; economic policy, &quot;Xi is seeking to portray China as the status-quo power and the US as an unpredictable disruptor,&quot; Hunter Marston, a Southeast Asia researcher at the Australian National University, told DW.</p><div><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/business/2025/4/9/ph-eyes-south-american-middle-eastern-markets-amid-us-tariff-woes-1805">PH eyes South American, Middle Eastern markets amid US tariff woes</a></div><div><span class="fr-video fr-deletable fr-fvc fr-dvb fr-draggable" contenteditable="false" draggable="true"><iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/qY523MCW8BA?&amp;wmode=opaque&amp;rel=0" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" class="fr-draggable"></iframe></span><br/></div><div><strong>Heavy on symbolism?</strong></div><p>In Vietnam, Xi oversaw the signing of 45 new cooperation agreements between the two countries.</p><p>Khac Giang Nguyen, a visiting fellow at ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute, told DW that the most tangible outcome of Xi&#x27;s Vietnam visit was progress on the long-discussed rail link connecting northern Vietnam with southern China.</p><p>For years, Hanoi and Beijing have discussed upgrading two railways that were built by the French more than a century ago, but both sides have now agreed to build two new lines across their border.</p><p>However, beyond this rail link agreement and some photo opportunities, Khac said, little substantive detail was offered.</p><p>&quot;The unusually vague language and delay in public statements suggest that Hanoi, and perhaps others, resisted Beijing&#x27;s attempts to shape the narrative,&quot; he added.</p><p>&quot;Thus, this was a visit heavy on symbolism, but lighter on deliverables than the number of signed agreements would suggest.&quot;</p><div><strong>Xi calls for advancing free trade talks with ASEAN</strong></div><p>In Malaysia, Xi also spoke about standing together against &quot;shocks to global order and economic globalization.&quot;</p><p>Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who has had a frosty relationship with the US over its support for Israel in the Gaza War, spoke in similar terms, warning about &quot;a retreat into economic tribalism.&quot;</p><p>In Kuala Lumpur, Xi signed several cooperation deals and called for advancing discussions on a free trade agreement between China and the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) bloc. Xi said he wants this to be agreed &quot;as early as possible.&quot; Malaysia is the chair of ASEAN this year.</p><p>&quot;We stand with the Chinese government, for the well-being of our people and for our national economic interests, as well as the overall development and stability of our country,&quot; Malaysian PM Anwar told reporters.</p><div><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/business/2025/4/14/china-vietnam-sign-agreements-after-xi-warns-protectionism-leads-nowhere-2048">China, Vietnam sign agreements after Xi warns protectionism &#x27;leads nowhere&#x27;</a></div><div><strong>China&#x27;s &#x27;ironclad friend&#x27;</strong></div><p>Xi then arrived in Cambodia — China&#x27;s &quot;ironclad friend&quot; in the region that could potentially be among the worst hit by Trump&#x27;s tariffs.</p><p>Nearly two-fifths of all Cambodia&#x27;s exports, chiefly its garment products, are bought by the US, according to Cambodian government figures.</p><p>But China is Cambodia&#x27;s largest trading partner, with bilateral commerce surpassing $15 billion in 2024 and representing nearly 30% of the Southeast Asian nation&#x27;s total trade volume. China also accounts for more than half of all investment in Cambodia.</p><p>Xi was scheduled to visit the Ream Naval Base, which was reopened last month after years of refurbishment by Chinese companies. Since 2018, the US has claimed that Phnom Penh will allow the Chinese military exclusive access to the base, which Cambodia and China deny.</p><p>Xi&#x27;s visit to Cambodia comes as the country commemorates the 50th anniversary of the &quot;fall of Phnom Penh,&quot; when the Chinese-backed Khmer Rouge captured the capital, the start of a four-year regime in which almost 2 million people were killed in a genocide.</p><div><strong>Will Xi&#x27;s trip help or hurt?</strong></div><p>Responding to Xi&#x27;s visit to Hanoi on Monday, Trump publicly accused China and Vietnam of trying &quot;to figure out how do we screw the United States of America.&quot;</p><p>It&#x27;s not clear whether Xi&#x27;s visit will help or hinder the three Southeast Asian states as they go about trying to negotiate down their tariffs with the US.</p><p>Cambodia has vowed to significantly reduce tariffs on most imports of US goods, while Vietnam has promised to scrap all duties on US imports and considerably increase its purchases of American goods. </p><p>On the one hand, pledges to improve trade cooperation between Southeast Asian states and China will likely irk some of Trump&#x27;s confidants, especially Peter Navarro, his trade adviser, who is very concerned about &quot;transshipment.&quot; This refers to Chinese goods being essentially exported to America via Southeast Asian countries, allowing China to evade US tariffs.</p><p>Recently, Navarro accused Vietnam of being &quot;essentially a colony of communist China&quot; because it acts as a &quot;transshipment&quot; point for Chinese goods.</p><p>&quot;Trump holds grudges, so I don&#x27;t think that the warm reception that Xi has had across Southeast Asia is going to go unnoticed in DC in the coming 80-plus days,&quot; said Abuza, referring to how long the tariff-pause has left.</p><p>On the other hand, Virak Ou, president of Future Forum, a leading Cambodia-based think tank, told DW that Trump might view Xi&#x27;s warm reception in Southeast Asia as a reason for the US to &quot;rebalance and try to backtrack and reassure partners here in the region.&quot;</p><p>Marston said that Xi&#x27;s visit could even give Southeast Asian states &quot;more bargaining power.&quot;</p><p>&quot;To be courted by China demonstrates they have options, and the Trump administration alienates them at its own risk,&quot; he said.</p><p>For now, Xi speaks the language that Southeast Asian governments want to hear. Most appear willing to set aside their own animosity toward Beijing as the White House shakes their economic fortunes and the wider global trade system.</p><div><br/></div><div><strong>RELATED VIDEO</strong></div><div><span class="fr-video fr-deletable fr-fvc fr-dvb fr-draggable" contenteditable="false" draggable="true"><iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/USz_mLaX_IU?&amp;wmode=opaque&amp;rel=0" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" class="fr-draggable"></iframe></span><br/></div>

<p>In Kuala Lumpur, Xi signed several cooperation deals and called for advancing discussions on a free trade agreement between China and the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations bloc.</p>

In Kuala Lumpur, Xi signed several cooperation deals and called for advancing discussions on a free trade agreement between China and the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations bloc.