Julia Christine Botin

Shadow of dynastic politics shrouds Southeast Asia

Article (news)

Deutsche Welle

<div><span class="fr-img-caption fr-fic fr-dib" style="width:950px"><span class="fr-img-wrap"><img src="https://od2-image-api.abs-cbn.com/prod/editorImage/17491913442431749191341531.jpeg" style="width:950px" class="fr-fic fr-dib"/><span class="fr-inner" style="text-align:left">President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte lead the Basic Education Report 2024 at the Sofitel Hotel in Pasay City on January 25, 2024. <em>Jonathan Cellona, ABS-CBN News/File </em></span></span></span></div><p>Brunei remains one of the world&#x27;s last absolute monarchies. In the Philippines, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. — the son and namesake of the country&#x27;s former dictator — occupies the presidential palace. At the same time, Vice President Sara Duterte, daughter of ex-President Rodrigo Duterte, serves as his second-in-command.  </p><p>Cambodia&#x27;s premiership passed from Hun Sen to his son Hun Manet in mid-2023, ending Hun Sen&#x27;s 38-year tenure. In Thailand, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, assumed office in August last year, bolstering the Shinawatra family&#x27;s longstanding influence.</p><p>Laos&#x27; head of government, Sonexay Siphandone, is the son of Khamtay Siphandone, a leading figure in Lao politics throughout the 1990s. In Indonesia, President Prabowo Subianto, once the former dictator Suharto&#x27;s son-in-law, took office last year, alongside Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka, son of former President Joko Widodo. And while</p><p>Singapore&#x27;s recent leadership change saw Lawrence Wong become prime minister, its governance has long been dominated by the Lee Kuan Yew family&#x27;s legacy.</p><div><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/nation/2025/5/11/wrap-leftist-candidates-take-on-political-dynasties-in-halalan-2025-2203">Leftist candidates take on political dynasties in Halalan 2025<br/></a></div><div><strong>Concerns in Malaysia<br/></strong></div><p>Now, Malaysia&#x27;s fragile coalition also faces accusations of dynastic creep. Last week, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim&#x27;s daughter, Nurul Izzah Anwar, was elected deputy president of the ruling People&#x27;s Justice Party (PKR), while his wife, Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, leads the ruling Pakatan Harapan coalition.</p><p>Nurul&#x27;s decisive victory over Economy Minister Rafizi Ramli — widely regarded as the party&#x27;s reformist intellectual — prompted both Rafizi and Environment Minister Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad to resign from the Cabinet.</p><p>&quot;Anwar&#x27;s daughter has her own reform credentials, but the framing of nepotism undermines her role as a successor and cuts into the credibility of Anwar&#x27;s government. It is no surprise that this has emerged as an opposition framing,&quot; Bridget Welsh, an honorary research associate at the University of Nottingham&#x27;s Asia Research Institute Malaysia, told DW.</p><p>&quot;PKR as a party has become more centralized around the Anwar family and this weakens the party long term in terms of outreach and diversity of representation,&quot; she added.</p><p>Dynastic influence extends beyond ruling parties. In Myanmar, Aung San Suu Kyi, the daughter of the country&#x27;s founding father, has been a central figure in pro-democracy movements and served as de facto prime minister until being ousted by the military in 2021.</p><p>&quot;I don&#x27;t think there will soon be any reduction in their power,&quot; Joshua Kurlantzick, senior fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, told DW.</p><p>&quot;The countries where they are most prominent are all still continuing with political dynasties playing major roles, and there is a looming dynasty war in the Philippines,&quot; he added.</p><div><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/nation/2025/4/2/lawmaker-we-need-fair-definition-of-what-a-political-dynasty-is-1705">Lawmaker: We need ‘fair’ definition of what a political dynasty is<br/></a></div><div><strong>Feuds in Manila<br/></strong></div><p>The Philippines&#x27; midterm elections last month underscored this rivalry: former allies, Marcos and Duterte clans went head-to-head following the collapse of their alliance over policy and personal differences.</p><p>In February, Sara Duterte was impeached by the House of Representatives over alleged misuse of government funds. She is due for a Senate trial this month which could bar her from future office. Should she win, the 2029 presidential contest will likely pit her against Martin Romualdez, President Marcos Jr.&#x27;s cousin and current House speaker.</p><p>&quot;Even if she is convicted, it won&#x27;t put a stop to dynastic persistence in Philippine politics, but it will be a fatal blow to the Duterte dynasty,&quot; Aries A. Arugay, visiting senior fellow at ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, told DW.</p><p>&quot;This means that she won&#x27;t be able to protect the interests of her dynasty and makes her vulnerable to more charges/persecution from her opponents. An acquittal is key to her political survival, but also reclaiming power that the Dutertes lost in 2022.&quot;</p><div><span class="fr-img-caption fr-fic fr-dib" style="width:950px"><span class="fr-img-wrap"><img src="https://od2-image-api.abs-cbn.com/prod/editorImage/17491915667851749191564404.jpeg" style="width:950px" class="fr-fic fr-dib"/><span class="fr-inner" style="text-align:left"><em>George Calvelo, ABS-CBN News/File</em></span></span></span></div><p>In Laos, the ruling Lao People&#x27;s Revolutionary Party will convene its National Congress next January to select leadership for the coming five years. Observers expect a dynastic struggle between Sonexay Siphandone, who is seeking a second term as prime minister, and National Assembly President Xaysomphone Phomvihane, the scion of an influential family.</p><p>Vietnam stands out in the region: despite its communist one-party rule, no political family has yet dominated at the national level. Local politics, however, is another story.</p><div><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/nation/2025/5/15/bam-kiko-wins-positive-but-dynasties-dominated-halalan-2025-makabayan-1554">Bam, Kiko wins &#x27;positive&#x27;, but dynasties dominated Halalan 2025 — Makabayan<br/></a></div><p>&quot;Despite its authoritarian leanings, Vietnamese politics relies on a delicate balance of collective leadership within the one-party system,&quot; Khac Giang Nguyen, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS — Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, told DW.</p><p>&quot;Institutional checks are in place to prevent the extreme personalization of power, though it still happens from time to time. This makes it tough for princelings to gain real traction. Some have landed important posts, but none have managed to reach the very top,&quot; he added.</p><div><span class="fr-img-caption fr-fic fr-dib" style="width:950px"><span class="fr-img-wrap"><img src="https://od2-image-api.abs-cbn.com/prod/editorImage/17491917646081749191762892.jpeg" style="width:950px" class="fr-fic fr-dib"/><span class="fr-inner" style="text-align:left">Vice President Sara Duterte addresses their family&#x27;s supporters in The Hague in the Netherlands, where her father, former president Rodrigo Duterte, is detained. <em>Jofelle Tesorio, ABS-CBN News </em></span></span></span></div><div><strong>Fat and thin dynasties</strong></div><p>Zachary Abuza, professor at the National War College in Washington, told DW that one &quot;concerning&quot; trend is that political families are becoming &quot;fat dynasties.&quot;</p><p>Not only are elite positions passed from parent to child, but more family members are occupying posts across different government branches, he said.</p><p>In the Philippines&#x27; latest midterms, for example, four pairs of siblings secured Senate seats — amounting to one-third of the chamber — and eighteen provinces now fall under &quot;obese&quot; dynastic control.</p><p>In Cambodia, such entrenchment is perhaps most pronounced: the ruling party often arranges marriages among ministers&#x27; children. Hun Manet&#x27;s wife is the daughter of a former Labour Ministry grandee; his brother Hun Many oversees the civil service as minister, while another brother, Hun Manith, commands the armed forces and military intelligence.</p><div><span class="fr-video fr-deletable fr-fvc fr-dvb fr-draggable" contenteditable="false" draggable="true"><iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/pzhEdbw6QYU?&amp;wmode=opaque&amp;rel=0" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" class="fr-draggable"></iframe></span><br/></div><div><strong>Is this resurgence of familial rule harmful?</strong></div><p>Analysts point to deep-seated factors for the entrenchment of dynasties in Southeast Asia, from the region&#x27;s pre-colonial history of local chieftains to the weakness of political parties over individual politicians and the inadequacy of anti-corruption efforts.</p><p>Conventional wisdom holds that dynastic politics both cause and reflect shrinking democratic space. Over the past decade, most Southeast Asian countries have seen declines in Freedom in the World rankings by US-based NGO Freedom House.</p><p>&quot;The dynastic power transition represents authoritarian continuity rather than a democratic opening,&quot; researchers Andrea Haefner and Sovinda Po wrote in a February paper on Southeast Asian dynasties.</p><p>Yet, one unexpected effect has been the advancement of women. Maria Diana Belza of the University of the Philippines argues that dynastic openings have increased female representation: when male relatives reach term limits or fall from favor, women heirs often step in to preserve their family&#x27;s political network.</p><p>However, Belza cautions that the growing number of women in politics &quot;does not necessarily lead to greater political participation for women outside of dynastic circles.&quot;</p><p>To date, only seven women have held Southeast Asia&#x27;s top offices: Corazon Aquino, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, Megawati Sukarnoputri, Yingluck Shinawatra, Aung San Suu Kyi, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, and Halimah Yacob.</p><p>Except for the current Singaporean President Halimah, all were daughters, wives, or sisters of former male leaders.</p><p>As dynasties consolidate power, it&#x27;s uncertain whether Southeast Asia&#x27;s political landscape can steer toward broader participation.</p><p>For now, family ties remain deeply woven into the region&#x27;s ruling structures, raising vital questions about governance, accountability and the future of democracy.</p>

<p>"The countries where they are most prominent are all still continuing with political dynasties playing major roles, and there is a looming dynasty war in the Philippines," Joshua Kurlantzick, senior fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations said.</p>

"The countries where they are most prominent are all still continuing with political dynasties playing major roles, and there is a looming dynasty war in the Philippines," Joshua Kurlantzick, senior fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations said.