Tovic Salvador

A tourist walks in front of the Royal Pavilion Mahajetsadabadin in Bangkok, Thailand in September 2024. ABS-CBN News, file

Article (news)

Deutsche Welle

<p>The border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has strengthened the hand of the pro-junta leaders in Bangkok at the expense of the civilian government.</p><p>Thailand has experienced at least 12 military coups since 1931, and the army has long been a dominant force in politics. After the 2014 coup, a junta ruled the country until a civilian government returned following the 2023 elections.</p><p>And while another coup may not be imminent at the moment, the military seems to be expanding its already immense influence in the wake of the latest border clashes.</p><div><br/></div><div><strong>Civilian oversight &#x27;minimal&#x27;</strong></div><p>Tensions with Cambodia have been simmering for more than a year but flared in April, when a Cambodian soldier was killed during a brief skirmish with Thai troops along the border.</p><p>On July 24, after Thai soldiers were injured by a landmine, five days of fighting left more than 40 people dead and hundreds wounded on both sides. The two nations agreed on a ceasefire at the end of the month.</p><p>The conflict has &quot;effectively given the Thai military free rein to operate with little civilian oversight, which was already minimal to begin with,&quot; Napon Jatusripitak, visiting fellow at Singapore&#x27;s ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, told DW.</p><div><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/world/2025/8/10/three-thai-soldiers-injured-by-landmine-on-cambodian-border-0923"><strong>Three Thai soldiers injured by landmine on Cambodian border<br/></strong></a></div><div><br/></div><div><strong>Thailand&#x27;s politics in chaos</strong></div><p>The 2023 general election ended with the Move Forward party poised to take power in Thailand.</p><p>However, post-election negotiations saw the second-placed Pheu Thai party form an unexpected coalition with its former adversaries, including the militarist United Thai Nation Party of former junta leader Prayuth Chan-ocha.</p><p>The coalition was unpopular from the start, but it only began to unravel during the latest hostilities with Cambodia.</p><p>In June, then-Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra sought to de-escalate tensions with a telephone call to Cambodia&#x27;s Senate president and former prime minister Hun Sen.</p><p>During the call, the 38-year-old Thai prime minister addressed Hun Sen, who was then nearing his 73d birthday, as &quot;uncle&quot; and professed love and respect for the veteran leader.</p><p>She also appeared to criticize her own army&#x27;s actions and hinted that some of the Thai generals were using the conflict for political purposes.</p><p>Hun Sen soon leaked the recording of the call in what could be seen as an attempt to weaken Thailand during the border crisis.</p><div><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/world/2025/7/27/thailand-cambodia-clash-despite-ceasefire-hopes-1501">Thailand and Cambodia to hold peace talks after more border clashes<br/></a></div><div><br/></div><div><strong>Shinawatra clan faces new attack</strong></div><p>The fallout in Thailand was swift. The conservative Bhumjaithai party quit the coalition, and Paetongtarn&#x27;s Pheu Thai party faced accusations of treason.</p><p>In June, General Nattaphon Narkphanit of the United Thai Nation Party became acting defense minister, while generals have also captured some other key posts.</p><p>The prime minister was suspended by the Constitutional Court in early July, pending trial.</p><p>Paetongtarn Shinawatra is the daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, ousted by the military in 2006, and the niece of Yingluck Shinawatra, who was removed in the 2014 coup.</p><div><br/></div><div><strong>&#x27;No need to wait for orders&#x27;</strong></div><p>The shift has &quot;effectively handed the defense ministry to the military to run as the generals see fit,&quot; Thitinan Pongsudhirak, senior fellow at the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University, told DW.</p><p>This is especially evident in Thailand&#x27;s border regions, which &quot;have long been effectively under martial law… giving soldiers control over border policy and limiting civilian control,&quot; Paul Chambers, a Thailand expert, wrote in Fulcrum, an online publication issued by ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, last week.</p><p>According to Chambers, the army has consistently undermined civilian-led de-escalation efforts since January.</p><p>A soldier pokes his head from an armored personnel carrier on the Thailand side of a Thai-Cambodian borderA soldier pokes his head from an armored personnel carrier on the Thailand side of a Thai-Cambodian border</p><p>A peace agreement between Thailand and Cambodia has yet to be fully implementedImage: Athit Perawongmetha/REUTERS</p><p>When Thai soldiers were injured by Cambodian-laid landmines in mid-July, General Boonsin, commander of the Thai Second Army Region, openly stated that retaliation was necessary and that &quot;there is no need to wait for orders from the government.&quot;</p><div><br/></div><div><strong>Thai voters trust the military more than the government</strong></div><p>Analysts told DW that the Thai military was riding a surge of public nationalism, with celebrities and politicians harassed on social media with accusations of not being patriotic enough.</p><p>A poll published by the National Institute of Development Administration last week found that Thais trust the military the most in protecting the national interest and resolving the conflict with Cambodia.</p><p>Only 15% of respondents said they had any level of trust in the civilian government over these matters.</p><p>The ceasefire with Cambodia came after US President Donald Trump warned both Bangkok and Phnom Penh they would face stiff export tariffs unless they halted hostilities.</p><p>Truce talks were mediated by Malaysia, the current chair of ASEAN, but the agreement has been only partially upheld.</p><p>With the military in charge &quot;the ceasefire agreement remains fragile,&quot; said Thitinan from the Bangkok-based Chulalongkorn University.</p><p>Cambodia is expected to continue pushing for international involvement to boost domestic support, while the Thai army is likely to mount a &quot;heavy-handed&quot; response and risks further escalation, Thitinan warned.</p><div><br/></div><div><strong>Will Shinawatras bring back the junta?</strong></div><p>The future of the Thai government may hinge on upcoming court rulings concerning Paetongtarn Shinawatra and her father, Thaksin, the main powerbroker of the Pheu Thai party.</p><p>The Constitutional Court is expected to decide whether to ban Paetongtarn from politics by early September, while Thaksin faces imprisonment for alleged royal defamation.</p><p>A political collapse of the Shinawatra clan and the Pheu Thai, central to Thai politics since the 1990s, would strengthen conservative and militarist factions, analysts say.</p><p>&quot;The party is unready to face the electorate but may also find it increasingly untenable to continue in office without making further compromises with its conservative allies in the coalition,&quot; Ken Lohatepanont, a PhD candidate at the University of Michigan, told DW.</p><p>The crisis makes &quot;more plausible&quot; the return of former junta leader Prayut Chan-ocha, who ruled between 2014 and 2023, Lohatepanont said.</p><p>Prayut&#x27;s United Thai Nation Party currently keeps the coalition afloat, and his comeback could be the price Pheu Thai pays to avoid an election it is likely to lose.</p><p>And even if the election is called, the clashes have boosted the popularity of the military and its allies.</p><p>Another coup is &quot;unlikely but never off the table, especially as the military is resurgent in view of the border conflict,&quot; Thitinan said.</p><div><em><br/></em></div><div><em>Edited by: Darko Janjevic</em></div>

<p>The recent border clashes with Cambodia have left Thailand's politics in chaos while boosting the already immense power of its military leaders.</p>

The recent border clashes with Cambodia have left Thailand's politics in chaos while boosting the already immense power of its military leaders.

Thailand: Is the military preparing another coup?

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Thailand: Is the military preparing another coup?

Deutsche Welle,

David Hutt

Published Aug 17, 2025 08:38 AM PHT

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