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Is North Korea preparing for war in 2024?

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Deutsche Welle

<div class="embed-wrap"><figure data-feedback="fb:likes,fb:comments"><img alt="North Korea" s="" leader="" Kim="" Jong="" Un="" attends="" a="" meeting="" with="" President="" Vladimir="" Putin="" at="" the="" Vostochny="" Сosmodrome="" in="" far="" eastern="" Amur="" Sept.="" Sputnik="" Smirnov="" Pool="" src="https://sa.kapamilya.com/absnews/abscbnnews/media/2024/tvpatrol/01/16/kim-jong-un-reuters.jpg"/><figcaption>North Korea&#x27;s leader Kim Jong Un attends a meeting with Russia&#x27;s President Vladimir Putin at the Vostochny Сosmodrome in the far eastern Amur region, Russia, Sept. 13, 2023. <em>Sputnik/Vladimir Smirnov/Pool/Reuters </em></figcaption></figure></div><p>North Korean leader Kim Jong Un ended 2023 with a fiery policy speech to the Communist Party leadership, dispensing with the possibility of peaceful reunification with South Korea while characterizing the relationship as &quot;between two hostile countries and two belligerents at war,&quot; state-run news agency KCNA reported.</p><p>Kim called for the &quot;exponential&quot; expansion of North Korea&#x27;s nuclear arsenal and a ramp-up of ballistic missile testing. He also pledged to launch three new spy satellites.</p><p>In the speech, Kim accused the South Korea and the United States of &quot;reckless moves&quot; in preparation for &quot;invasion&quot; and warned that a &quot;war can break out at any time on the Korean peninsula.&quot;</p><p>North Korea launched a record number of missiles in 2023, including what it claimed in December to be a nuclear-capable ICBM that could reach anywhere in the US. It also launched a rocket late last year that put a spy satellite into orbit.</p><p>In its latest launch on Sunday, the North said it successfully fired an intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile.</p><p>On January 6, South Korea said the North fired at least 60 artillery rounds into waters close to Yeonpyeong Island at the sea border off the west coast of the peninsula.</p><p>Additionally, US satellites have detected the modernization and expansion of the North Korean Manpho Unha Chemical Complex, linked to the production of chemicals used for missile fuel and reagents for nuclear weapons.</p><p>In December, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that a second nuclear reactor is operational at Yongbyon and could be used to produce weapons-grade fuel.</p><div><strong>Korean situation &#x27;most dangerous&#x27; in decades</strong></div><p>A recent article published recently by 38 North, a North Korea analysis website run by the Washington-based Stimson Center think tank, has warned that Kim&#x27;s latest moves may go beyond the usual bluster.</p><p>Robert Carlin, a former head of the Northeast Asia Division at the US State Department, and Siegfried Hecker, a professor of nonproliferation studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterrey, warn that the security situation on the Korean Peninsula is &quot;more dangerous than it has been at any time since early June 1950,&quot; when the Korean War broke out.</p><p>&quot;That may sound overly dramatic, but we believe that, like his grandfather in 1950, Kim Jong Un has made a strategic decision to go to war,&quot; the article said.</p><p>&quot;We do not know when or how Kim plans to pull the trigger, but the danger is already far beyond the routine warnings in Washington, Seoul and Tokyo about Pyongyang&#x27;s &#x27;provocations,&#x27;&quot; they said.</p><p>&quot;We do not see the war preparation themes in North Korean media appearing since the beginning of last year as typical bluster,&quot; they added.</p><figure class="op-interactive"><iframe height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/25QNKPz3Tx8?enablejsapi=1" width="560"></iframe></figure><div class="iwantbar">Watch more News on <a href="https://www.iwanttfc.com/#!/browse/Genres/News/tag_id_genres/id_news" target="_blank">iWantTFC</a></div><div><strong>What has changed?</strong></div><p>The analysts said their warning is centered on the North Korean regime abandoning their long-held goal of &quot;normalizing&quot; relations with the United States. Pyongyang may now believe such normalization is impossible.</p><p>They argue that analysts and policymakers underestimate the importance of this normalization goal in providing a guardrail to Kim&#x27;s strategic thinking.</p><p>It is &quot;crucially important&quot; to understand &quot;how central the goal of improving relations with the United States was to all three of the Kims who led North Korea,&quot; the article said.</p><p>The North &quot;completely abandoning that goal has profoundly changed the strategic landscape in and around Korea,&quot; the analysts added.</p><p>The failure of the 2019 Hanoi summit between Kim and former US President Donald Trump was a &quot;traumatic loss of face for Kim.&quot; Talks had centered on the possibility of sanctions relief in exchange for North Korea pledging to wind down its weapons program, neither of which panned out.</p><p>Five years later, North Korea believes that &quot;the time is ripe for the status quo to be challenged,&quot; the analysts said. The North is developing ties with Russia, supporting Moscow&#x27;s war in Ukraine with artillery rounds. At the same time, Pyongyang considers the US to be in a &quot;global retreat.&quot;</p><div><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameBorder="0" height="560" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/kpuO5nQwzE8" title="YouTube video player" width="315"></iframe></div><div><strong>Does North Korea remain &#x27;rational?&#x27; </strong></div><p>However, other analysts are skeptical about whether North Korea is preparing to launch a war.</p><p>&quot;Calls to arm for war are not unusual in North Korea,&quot; said Garren Mulloy, a professor of international relations at Daito Bunka University in Tokyo and a specialist in military issues.</p><p>&quot;We shouldn&#x27;t be smug that this is meaningless, but nor should we imagine that it means war,&quot; he told DW.</p><p>The worry, he said, is that &quot;any sign of weakness by the West&quot; in the Middle East, Ukraine or elsewhere could give Kim the impression &quot;that this may be an unrepeatable opportunity, too good to pass up on.&quot;</p><p>Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, an assistant professor of international relations at the University of Tokyo, agrees that the timing of a military adventure would not seem to favor North Korea at present.</p><p>&quot;The North has made progress in cultivating China and Russia as allies, and I can see no reason why they would want to fight at this point in time,&quot; he told DW.</p><p>&quot;And while the North might rely on Moscow and Beijing for support, they do not trust them enough to be confident they would come to the North&#x27;s aid in the event of a war,&quot; he added.</p><p>&quot;My sense is that the North Korean leadership is not stupid and that Kim and his sister [Kim Yo Jong] are using words as strategic leverage to make an impact, elaborate actions that signal war without going that far,&quot; he said.</p><p>&quot;My big concern, however, is not so much a planned attack on South Korea or Japan, but saber-rattling that leads to misunderstandings and an unintended conflict.&quot;</p><p>However, Carlin and Hecker insist that the world needs to seriously consider a worst-case scenario coming to pass and that the North &quot;could be planning to move in ways that completely defy our calculations.&quot;</p><p>This includes the &quot;by-now routine argument that Kim Jong Un would not dare&quot; launch an attack on South Korea or US military positions because he &quot;knows&quot; Washington and Seoul would &quot;destroy his regime if he does so.&quot;</p><p>&quot;The literature on surprise attacks should make us wary of the comfortable assumptions that resonate in Washington&#x27;s echo chamber but might not have purchase in Pyongyang,&quot; they write.</p><p>In turn, Mulloy said the narrative of North Korea having no options except war — because it failed to engage with the US — &quot;jumps many gaps in logic and motivation.&quot;</p><p>&quot;Kim is no lunatic; he is very much a rational actor,&quot; Mulloy said, pointing out that the North Korean dictator benefits from a closer alliance with Russia. According to the analyst, Kim&#x27;s regime is presently not showing any signs of internal dissent or collapse.</p><figure class="op-interactive"><iframe height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/vf5sT-B-lpk?enablejsapi=1" width="560"></iframe></figure><div class="iwantbar">Watch more News on <a href="https://www.iwanttfc.com/#!/browse/Genres/News/tag_id_genres/id_news" target="_blank">iWantTFC</a></div><div><em>Edited by: Wesley Rahn</em></div>

Pyongyang is once again ratcheting up its war rhetoric, with some analysts warning it could go beyond the usual bluster.