Push Admin

El Nino's back — prepare for drought, hunger and diseases

Article (news)

Sushmitha Ramakrishnan, Deutsche Welle

<div class="embed-wrap"><figure data-feedback="fb:likes,fb:comments"><img alt="Photo shows the Angat Dam as water level nears its minimum operating level of 180 meters above sea level (masl) on July 6, 2023. The National Water Resource Board (NWRB) recently cut the raw water allocation to water concessionaires Maynilad and Manila Water from 52 cubic meters per second (cms) in June to 50 cms for the month of July in preparation for the possible impacts of El Nino. Authorities remain hopeful that the rainy season from July to September would help improve water levels at the reservoir. Maria Tan, ABS-CBN/File" src="https://sa.kapamilya.com/absnews/abscbnnews/media/2023/tvpatrol/08/14/20230706-angat-dam-180masl-mt4.jpg"/><figcaption>Photo shows the Angat Dam as water level nears its minimum operating level of 180 meters above sea level (masl) on July 6, 2023. The National Water Resource Board (NWRB) recently cut the raw water allocation to water concessionaires Maynilad and Manila Water from 52 cubic meters per second (cms) in June to 50 cms for the month of July in preparation for the possible impacts of El Nino. Authorities remain hopeful that the rainy season from July to September would help improve water levels at the reservoir. <em>Maria Tan, ABS-CBN/File</em></figcaption></figure></div><p>El Nino — a natural, cyclical climate pattern that causes hot weather — has heightened the risk of food, water and health security in some parts of the world, scientists have warned.</p><p>The World Meteorological Organization confirmed El Nino&#x27;s return last month after three stubborn years of La Nina, the opposite effect.</p><p>The El Nino weather pattern is 95% likely to prevail until February 2024, a US government weather forecaster said on Thursday.</p><p>Compounded with the effects of global warming, this spell of El Nino could trigger localized drought and hunger events as well as the increased spread of vector-borne diseases.</p><p>&quot;El Nino does not mean a year with more disasters than others, globally,&quot; said Walter Baethgen, a scientist at Columbia University&#x27;s International Research Institute for Climate and Society. He said it can, however, cause severe localized effects in different parts of the world.</p><div><strong>WARMING VS. COOLING</strong></div><p>El Nino and La Nina are the two parts of a weather pattern called the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), an irregular but periodic variation in wind patterns and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean.</p><p>El Nino represents the warming phase of ENSO, while La Nina represents its cooling phase. In El Nino years, the temperature spikes by around 0.1 degree Celsius (about 0.2 Fahrenheit) and falls by about the same amount in La Nina years. During the fluctuation, the phenomenon often goes through a neutral phase.</p><p>The two individual periods last several months at a time and occur every few years with varying frequency and intensity. This pattern affects the climate in most of the tropic and subtropical regions.</p><div><strong>RECORD TEMPERATURES MORE LIKELY</strong></div><p>The Earth has hit record temperatures repeatedly in recent years and months — the average temperature for July 2023 is confirmed to be the highest on record , according to the World Meteorological Organization, at 0.72 degrees Celsius warmer than the 1991-2020 average for July.</p><p>Such events are more likely to occur in this cycle of El Nino, said Chris Hewitt, head of climate services at the WMO.</p><p>&quot;Estimates show us that there is a 66% chance that global temperate can shoot over 1.5 degrees Celsius from the pre-industrial era,&quot; he said.</p><p>Hewitt emphasized that the full impact of El Nino will be evident in 2024, adding that the Earth could experience its hottest year ever in the next half-decade.</p><div><strong>LOCALIZED THREATS TO FOOD SECURITY</strong></div><p>Baethgen said it&#x27;s important for climate scientists to take El Nino into account while making global predictions over the course of this spell to better prepare for potential knock-on effects like drought and threats to food security.</p><p>With experts warning that El Nino could cause problems for the harvest of rice crops, many countries in South and Southeast Asia are already taking measures to conserve stocks. India, for example, has banned the export of many varieties of rice, while parts of Indonesia are planning for an early harvest.</p><p>Although predicting disasters with certainty can be difficult, we already know that some parts of the tropics and subtropics have always been hit harder during El Nino years. For example, parts of Ethiopia experience drought during every El Nino year, while some areas along the Andes Mountain range in South America see intense drought and flooding when the weather pattern hits.</p><p>El Nino also often brings a spate of dangerous heat waves to South Asia. Identifying these sorts of patterns in vulnerable regions can help scientists better predict disasters.</p><p>&quot;That&#x27;s going to help us take anticipatory actions,&quot; said Baethgen.</p><ul class="op-related-articles">	<li><a href="https://news.abs-cbn.com/spotlight/08/09/23/el-nino-could-imperil-australias-great-barrier-reef">El Nino could imperil Australia&#x27;s Great Barrier Reef</a></li></ul><div><strong>EFFECT OF EL NINO ON HEALTH</strong></div><p>The sudden changes in heat observed during El Nino years can affect overall health and manifest as heat exertion, stroke or even death.</p><p>&quot;Heat waves kill more people than any other severe weather in the US. Last year, there were 60,000 more deaths related to heat in Europe,&quot; said Gregory Wellenius, head of the Center for Climate and Health at Boston University.</p><p>Sudden hot weather certainly affects the physiology of the human body, and some studies have shown a correlation between heat waves and mental health problems. But experts say the most common negative health impact ignited by the heat is the outbreak of vector-borne diseases like malaria and dengue.</p><p>Madeleine Thomson, head of climate impacts and adaptation at the charity Wellcome, said many of these sorts of outbreaks have been observed during previous El Nino years.</p><p>&quot;In Kenya, for example, during the 1997-1999 El Nino, the increase in mosquito breeding was crazy. There were widespread malaria outbreaks in East Africa,&quot; she said, adding that similar patterns were observed during the last El Nino spell in 2015 and 2016.</p><p>Thomson said El Nino typically manifests through these types of geographically localized events, rather than massive global disasters.</p><div><strong>A TANDEM WITH CLIMATE CRISIS</strong></div><p>El Nino is a natural phenomenon that has been occurring for centuries, but its effects have been stronger in recent decades. While there is no proven link, experts fear this could be related to climate change.</p><p>Thomson said meteorological organizations around the world should study the impact of weather on health, to better prepare the public to face both challenges in the coming years.</p><div><em>Edited by: Clare Roth</em></div><div><strong>RELATED VIDEO</strong></div><figure class="op-interactive"><iframe height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/O5SbhFC0p7U?enablejsapi=1" width="560"></iframe></figure><div class="iwantbar">Watch more News on <a href="https://www.iwanttfc.com/#!/browse/Genres/News/tag_id_genres/id_news" target="_blank">iWantTFC</a></div>

The return of the El Nino weather phenomenon is likely to amplify the problems of the climate crisis.	

El Nino's back — prepare for drought, hunger and diseases

News

Entertainment

Lifestyle

Sports

Metro.Style

More

Traffic

Manila

Horoscope

Spotlight

El Nino's back — prepare for drought, hunger and diseases

Sushmitha Ramakrishnan,

Deutsche Welle

Published Aug 15, 2023 05:20 AM PHT

|

Updated Aug 15, 2023 07:00 AM PHT

Read More:

El Nino

climate pattern

climate change

global warming

World Meteorological Organization confirmed

ABS-CBN is the leading media and entertainment company in the Philippines, offering quality content across TV, radio, digital, and film. Committed to public service and promoting Filipino values, ABS-CBN continues to inspire and connect audiences worldwide.

Corporate

Investors

Governance

International Distribution

Corporate

Governance

Investors

International Distribution

NPC Seal of Registration

Privacy Policy

AI Policy

Terms of Service

Advertise with Us

© 2025 ABS-CBN Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

NPC Seal of Registration

Privacy Policy

Terms of Service

AI Policy

Advertise with Us

© 2025 ABS-CBN Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

NPC Seal of Registration

Privacy Policy

Terms of Service

AI Policy

Advertise with Us

© 2025 ABS-CBN Corporation. All Rights Reserved.