2023 could tie record of fewest storms inside PAR | ABS-CBN
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2023 could tie record of fewest storms inside PAR
2023 could tie record of fewest storms inside PAR
Ariel Rojas,
ABS-CBN News
Published Dec 21, 2023 03:30 PM PHT
MANILA — Only 11 tropical cyclones formed within or entered the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) so far in 2023.
MANILA — Only 11 tropical cyclones formed within or entered the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) so far in 2023.
This year could tie with 1998 and 2010 as the year with the record fewest number of storms since 1948, based on PAGASA data.
This year could tie with 1998 and 2010 as the year with the record fewest number of storms since 1948, based on PAGASA data.
This number is just half of the annual average number of storms in the country at 19 to 20.
This number is just half of the annual average number of storms in the country at 19 to 20.
No tropical system is expected within the country's area of monitoring until the end of the year, at least based on the state weather bureau's cyclone threat potential forecast issued Wednesday.
No tropical system is expected within the country's area of monitoring until the end of the year, at least based on the state weather bureau's cyclone threat potential forecast issued Wednesday.
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Among this year's weather disturbances, three rapidly intensified over the Philippine Sea and reached super typhoon category: Betty, with international name Mawar, in late May; Egay (Doksuri) in July; and Goring (Saola) in August.
Among this year's weather disturbances, three rapidly intensified over the Philippine Sea and reached super typhoon category: Betty, with international name Mawar, in late May; Egay (Doksuri) in July; and Goring (Saola) in August.
Four systems made landfall: tropical depression Amang in Panganiban, Catanduanes; severe tropical storm Dodong (Talim) in Dinapigue, Isabela; super typhoon Egay in Calayan, Cagayan; and tropical storm Kabayan (Jelawat) in Manay, Davao Oriental.
Based on National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) data, the cumulative damage to infrastructure, agriculture, houses, and other assets this year amounts to P17.76 billion along with 35 deaths reported from the 11 storms as well as cyclone-enhanced severe weather systems such as the southwest monsoon and shear line.
Four systems made landfall: tropical depression Amang in Panganiban, Catanduanes; severe tropical storm Dodong (Talim) in Dinapigue, Isabela; super typhoon Egay in Calayan, Cagayan; and tropical storm Kabayan (Jelawat) in Manay, Davao Oriental.
Based on National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) data, the cumulative damage to infrastructure, agriculture, houses, and other assets this year amounts to P17.76 billion along with 35 deaths reported from the 11 storms as well as cyclone-enhanced severe weather systems such as the southwest monsoon and shear line.
EL NIÑO CONNECTION
Ana Liza Solis, chief of PAGASA's Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section, attributes the reduction in the number of storms in the country this year to the prevailing strong El Niño in the equatorial Pacific.
Ana Liza Solis, chief of PAGASA's Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section, attributes the reduction in the number of storms in the country this year to the prevailing strong El Niño in the equatorial Pacific.
"Yung pagbaba po ng (bilang ng) bagyo this year, yan po ay epekto po ng El Niño. Yan ang nakikita nating early impacts nya," Solis said in PAGASA's monthly climate forum on Wednesday.
"Yung pagbaba po ng (bilang ng) bagyo this year, yan po ay epekto po ng El Niño. Yan ang nakikita nating early impacts nya," Solis said in PAGASA's monthly climate forum on Wednesday.
El Niño was already waning in the first half of 1998 and in the first quarter of 2010, while the El Niño episode this year only began in July.
Solis emphasized, however, that El Niño impacts in the country are not limited to the reduction in the number of storms and rainfall amount and warmer temperatures.
El Niño was already waning in the first half of 1998 and in the first quarter of 2010, while the El Niño episode this year only began in July.
Solis emphasized, however, that El Niño impacts in the country are not limited to the reduction in the number of storms and rainfall amount and warmer temperatures.
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RAINFALL CONTRIBUTION
The southwest monsoon or Habagat could also be enhanced by pre-developing or early stage El Niño leading to more rains in the western part of the archipelago, as seen in the Habagat enhancement by Ondoy and Pepeng in 2009.
Tropical cyclones are an important source of rainwater for the agriculture-dependent archipelago.
"Usually, 40 to 55 percent ang ikino-contribute sa ating annual rainfall ng mga bagyo. So kung nagkaroon tayo ng less number of tropical cyclone (TC), 'yong TC-associated rainfall 'yon 'yong nabawasan," Solis explained.
"'Yong contribution ng ating mga bagyo ay nito lang nagdaan na enhanced southwest monsoon season and other than that itong shear line na nangyari dyan sa may Eastern Visayas," she added.
The southwest monsoon or Habagat could also be enhanced by pre-developing or early stage El Niño leading to more rains in the western part of the archipelago, as seen in the Habagat enhancement by Ondoy and Pepeng in 2009.
Tropical cyclones are an important source of rainwater for the agriculture-dependent archipelago.
"Usually, 40 to 55 percent ang ikino-contribute sa ating annual rainfall ng mga bagyo. So kung nagkaroon tayo ng less number of tropical cyclone (TC), 'yong TC-associated rainfall 'yon 'yong nabawasan," Solis explained.
"'Yong contribution ng ating mga bagyo ay nito lang nagdaan na enhanced southwest monsoon season and other than that itong shear line na nangyari dyan sa may Eastern Visayas," she added.
2024 STORMS
For the first half of 2024, PAGASA forecasts 2 to 5 tropical cyclones inside the PAR: none or one in January, February, March, and April and one or two in May and June.
The next storm names are as follows:
For the first half of 2024, PAGASA forecasts 2 to 5 tropical cyclones inside the PAR: none or one in January, February, March, and April and one or two in May and June.
The next storm names are as follows:
- Aghon
- Butchoy
- Carina
- Dindo
- Enteng
- Ferdie
- Gener
- Helen
- Igme
- Julian
- Kristine
- Leon
- Marce
- Nika
- Ofel
- Pepito
- Querubin
- Romina
- Siony
- Tonyo
- Upang
- Vicky
- Warren
- Yoyong
- Zosimo
- Aghon
- Butchoy
- Carina
- Dindo
- Enteng
- Ferdie
- Gener
- Helen
- Igme
- Julian
- Kristine
- Leon
- Marce
- Nika
- Ofel
- Pepito
- Querubin
- Romina
- Siony
- Tonyo
- Upang
- Vicky
- Warren
- Yoyong
- Zosimo
Aghon, Querubin, Romina, and Upang are replacement names for the decommissioned names Ambo, Quinta, Rolly, and Ulysses used in 2020.
Aghon, Querubin, Romina, and Upang are replacement names for the decommissioned names Ambo, Quinta, Rolly, and Ulysses used in 2020.
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