Philippine economy can exceed upper end of gov't target in 2022: NEDA

MANILA — The Philippine economy can exceed the government's 6.5 to 7.5 percent target range this year due to the stronger fourth quarter performance, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said on Monday.

For the first 3 quarters, the gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaged 7.7 percent, said Balisacan, who also sits as the Director General of the National Economic and Development Authority.

"Given the indications we are seeing in the fourth quarter, it's likely to exceed even in the upper limit of the range. We expect to see robust growth in the fourth quarter," said Balisacan.

Overshooting the target may happen despite the recent challenges such as rising costs. Inflation reached 8 percent in November and is likely to quicken further this month, officials have said.

An uptick in consumption, as well as remittances, are seen in Q4 due to the holiday season.

"We see our streets, traffic jam in the streets and in the malls. Fourth quarter historically, that's the time remittances come in. Remittances is helping boost consumption," said NEDA Assistant Secretary Sarah Lynne Daway-Ducanes.

"Last year we were unable to go to the malls, eat out a lot. It's actually when we go to malls, we jokingly say it's the revenge of the Christmas trees and Christmas lights," she said.

But Balisacan said global headwinds remain as risks to the country's growth next year.

"We need to see more manufacturing, more construction, more utilities, even mining we hope would contribute strongly to medium term growth. Agriculture, of course, is also going to be a driver," he added.

Based on the new Philippine Development Plan 2023 to 2028, GDP growth target is 6.5 to 8 percent per year and inflation to be between 2 to 4 percent.

However, inflation is likely to remain elevated this year.

The debt-to-GDP ratio is also expected to go down from 63.7 percent as of the end of September to 51.1 percent by end of 2028.

• Cash remittance up 3.5 percent in October: BSP
• Philippine economy can grow 7.2 percent in 2022: World Bank
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