Cheyenne Suarez

Philippine consumer spending to see stable growth in 2026, says Fitch unit

Returning Overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) are accompanied by their families as they shop at Duty-Free Philippines in Fiesta Mall, Parañaque City, on July 17, 2024.
Duty-Free Philippines, in partnership with the OFW party list, has enhanced perks for Overseas Filipino workers by providing a discount card, which offers a 15% discount on items that they and their families can use when they return to the Philippines.
Jonathan Cellona, ABS-CBN News

Article (news)

Arthur Fuentes

ABS-CBN News

MANILA — Philippine consumer spending is set for stable growth in 2026, though persistent structural risks and a recent plunge in consumer confidence cloud the outlook, according to a report by BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions.The research firm expects real household spending to grow 4.5 percent year-on-year, reaching P14.1 trillion. While this marks a slight deceleration from the 4.7 percent growth projected for 2025, total spending will sit more than 26 percent above pre-pandemic levels.&quot;We hold a cautious but positive outlook for consumer spending in the Philippines over 2026,&quot; BMI said. &quot;Consumer purchasing power will expand, supported by stable economic growth and a still-tight labour market facilitating real wage growth.&quot;<div>Confidence at four-year low</div>Despite the expansion, consumer sentiment has soured. Confidence levels dropped to -22.2 in late 2025, the lowest reading since 2021. BMI attributed the slump to &quot;concerns over governmental corruption, spiking inflation and natural disasters.&quot;The report noted that while inflation is expected to average 3.1 percent in 2026—within the central bank&#x27;s target range—it remains higher than pre-Covid averages. This &quot;sticky&quot; inflation is forcing families to prioritize necessities.<div>Remittance lifeline</div>A resilient labor market and steady remittances remain the economy’s backbone. Cash transfers from overseas Filipinos grew in late 2025, according to the latest figures, BMI said.&quot;The Philippines&#x27; remittance income totaled $38.3 billion in 2024, up 3 percent from the $37.2 billion reported in 2023. The latest data, for November 2025, indicate that cash remittances to the Philippines grew to $2.9 billion, up 3.6 percent y-o-y,&quot; BMI said.The research agency noted that the demand for overseas Philippine workers continues to increase globally, particularly for workers skilled in jobs related to medical and health services, construction and housekeeping.However, BMI warned that a potential slowdown in the United States—which accounts for 41 percent of remittances—poses a significant risk.The Philippine peso is also forecast to weaken slightly to 58.5 against the US dollar. BMI described this as a &quot;managed, gradual and orderly depreciation&quot; supported by the central bank&#x27;s sufficient reserves.

Philippine consumer spending is set for stable growth in 2026, though persistent structural risks and a recent plunge in consumer confidence cloud the outlook, according to a report by BMI.

Philippine consumer spending is set for stable growth in 2026, though persistent structural risks and a recent plunge in consumer confidence cloud the outlook, according to a report by BMI.