Rowegie Abanto

A supermarket in Pasig City. Mark Demayo, ABS-CBN News/File

A look at Unimart's second branch in Capitol Commons in Pasig City on February 21, 2018. Mark Demayo, ABS-CBN News

Article (news)

Unimart Capitol Commons Branch

ABS-CBN News

<div><span class="fr-img-caption fr-fic fr-dib" style="width:960px;display:block" width="960"><span class="fr-img-wrap"><img src="https://od2-image-api.abs-cbn.com/prod/editorImage/177311038295420180221-unimart-supermarket-opening-8032-MD-38.jpg" style="width:960px" class="fr-fic fr-dib" width="960"/><span class="fr-inner" style="text-align:left">A supermarket in Pasig City. <em>Mark Demayo, ABS-CBN News/File</em></span></span></span></div><p>MANILA — The inflation rate in the Philippines could further quicken if the war in the Middle East continues, an economist warned Tuesday.</p><p>Business groups have <a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/business/2026/3/2/ph-biz-groups-sound-alarm-on-middle-east-conflict-1716">expressed concern</a> that <a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/business/2026/3/9/oil-firms-agree-to-staggered-hikes-p17-to-p24-increases-expected-this-week-doe-1257">higher fuel prices </a>and disrupted supply chains could again trigger spikes in inflation and erode the purchasing power of ordinary Filipinos.</p><p>Speaking on ANC, economist and University of the Philippines professor JC Punongbayan said that most of the inflation shocks in the country were supply-driven.</p><p>He said he expected the inflation rate to &quot;likely increase rapidly in the coming months&quot; amid the tensions in the Middle East.</p><div><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/business/2026/3/4/meralco-middle-east-conflict-may-affect-power-rates-1442">Meralco: Middle East conflict may affect power rates</a></div><p>Punongbayan noted that inflation <a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/business/2026/3/5/inflation-quickens-to-2-4-pct-in-february-0910">quickened by 2.4 percent in February</a>, &quot;still comfortably&quot; within the target inflation rate of the government, which was at 2 to 4 percent.</p><p>Past episodes, like the 2018 inflation spike during the Duterte administration and the 2022 inflation hike amid Russia&#x27;s invasion of Ukraine, however, show that &quot;things can spiral out of control pretty rapidly,&quot; he said.</p><p>&quot;This is something that definitely we should be watching closely.&quot;</p><div><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/business/2026/3/6/sustained-spike-in-oil-prices-not-likely-amid-high-global-inventories-says-fitch-ratings-2028">Sustained spike in oil prices not likely amid high global inventories, says Fitch Ratings</a></div><p>On Monday, a group of manufacturing companies said it was exploring ways to mitigate the cost of rising fuel prices before passing on the burden to consumers.</p><p>The Supply Chain Management Association of the Philippines said raising the prices of goods, particularly basic commodities, would be its <a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/business/2026/3/9/supply-chain-group-says-raising-prices-of-goods-a-last-resort-despite-rising-fuel-costs-1807">last resort</a>.</p><p>An extended conflict in the Middle East after the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran could trigger <a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/business/2026/3/3/mideast-war-risks-sending-global-economy-into-stagflation-0847">global stagflation</a> — a troublesome blend of high inflation and anaemic growth — due to spiking oil and gas prices, economists have warned.</p><p>President Donald Trump said Monday that <a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/world/2026/3/10/trump-vows-iran-war-will-end-very-soon-0946">US military operations in Iran would be ending soon</a>, reassuring markets that have been thrust into chaos by a war still reverberating across the Middle East.</p><div><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/business/2026/1/30/ph-heading-to-low-growth-era-no-longer-attractive-to-foreign-investors-economist-1201">PH heading to low-growth era, no longer attractive to foreign investors—economist</a></div><div><strong>—With reports from Andrea Taguines, ABS-CBN News; Agence France-Presse</strong></div><div><br/></div><div><strong>RELATED VIDEOS</strong></div><div><span class="fr-video fr-deletable fr-fvc fr-dvb fr-draggable" contenteditable="false" draggable="true"><iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/zOnR3iXfOWM?&amp;wmode=opaque&amp;rel=0" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" class="fr-draggable"></iframe></span><br/></div><div><span class="fr-video fr-deletable fr-fvc fr-dvb fr-draggable" contenteditable="false" draggable="true"><iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/M2XnyNKCNwU?&amp;wmode=opaque&amp;rel=0" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" class="fr-draggable"></iframe></span><strong></strong><br/></div>

<p>The inflation rate could further accelerate if the war in the Middle East continues, an economist warned on Tuesday.</p>

The inflation rate could further accelerate if the war in the Middle East continues, an economist warned on Tuesday.

Inflation to 'increase rapidly' in coming months if Mideast war continues—economist

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Inflation to 'increase rapidly' in coming months if Mideast war continues—economist

Rowegie Abanto,

ABS-CBN News

Published March 10, 2026 11:02 AM PHT

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Inflation

Middle East

Middle East War

Middle East Conflict

JC Punongbayan

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