Benise Balaoing

Buildings tower over residential areas as seen from Pasig City on Thursday, January 29, 2026. The Philippine economy recorded a full-year growth of 4.4 percent in 2025, falling short of the government’s revised 5.5 to 6.5 percent target for the year. — Maria Tan, ABS-CBN News.

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ECONOMY PASIG-MANDALUYONG SKYLINE

Jekki Pascual

ABS-CBN News

<div><span class="fr-img-caption fr-fic fr-dib" style="width:960px;display:block" width="960"><span class="fr-img-wrap"><img src="https://od2-image-api.abs-cbn.com/prod/editorImage/1779260401357jonas revlas.jpeg" style="width:960px" class="fr-fic fr-dib" width="960"/><span class="fr-inner" style="text-align:left">Economist Jonathan Ravelas says prices of goods can still go up this year with inflation possibly hitting 7.2 percent for the year. But he also says the Philippines is still far from a state of stagflation. <em>Jekki Pascual, ABS-CBN News</em></span></span></span></div><p>MANILA — Despite weaker economic figures reported in recent weeks, an economist said that the Philippines is still far from reaching a state of stagflation.</p><div><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/business/2026/5/19/what-is-stagflation-and-should-we-be-worried-2302" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">What is stagflation and should we be worried?</a></div><p>Stagflation is an economic condition where there are simultaneous factors like stagnant economic growth, high unemployment, and high inflation. Economist and market analyst Jonathan Ravelas said there are signs of potential stagflation, like rising prices, but added that the country is still experiencing growth amid geopolitical risks.</p><div><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/business/2026/5/19/ph-concerned-about-stagflation-as-oil-price-shock-effects-persist-marcos-1000" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">PH ‘concerned about stagflation’ as oil price shock effects persist—Marcos</a></div><p>“Medyo malayo pa tayo. Tsismis pa lang yan sa tingin ko, because we’re still growing at <a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/business/2026/5/7/gdp-growth-skids-to-2-8-percent-in-first-quarter-of-2026-1007" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">2.8 percent</a>,” Ravelas told reporters at the Pandesal Forum.</p><p>But Ravelas also said that the government must swiftly address current challenges like rising prices and the elevated jobless rate, to avoid reaching the stagflation stage. He said the biggest hurdle would be inflation as he forecasted it to hit an average of <a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/business/2026/5/5/inflation-quickens-to-7-2-percent-in-april-0906" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">7.2 percent</a> this year, much higher than 1.7 percent last year.</p><p>“Tataas pa talaga [ang presyo]. Kumbaga di pa natin nararamdaman yung bagsik ng pagtaas ng mga presyo,” he said.</p><p>He also sees the Philippine peso hitting the P65 level against the US dollar in 1 to 3 years. It hit another record low of P61.75 this week.</p><div><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/business/2026/5/18/peso-sinks-to-new-record-low-of-p61-75-vs-dollar-1620" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Peso sinks to new record low of P61.75 vs. dollar</a></div><p>“This is a time for us to upgrade- whether we upgrade our energy resilience, our food strategy, and even our politics. Hopefully, we elect the right people in government,” he added.</p><p>Ravelas also pointed out that the current political noise must be resolved soon. He said the impeachment process, as well as investigations into the flood control scandal, must be completed so global investors will see the country has a good justice system.</p><p>“They need to see some resolution. They are ready and willing to invest in the country, but they need to see some proof that justice is slowly moving in this country,” he said.</p><p>Ravelas is still optimistic about growth in the second half of 2026 and a full-year GDP growth rate of 3.8 to 4 percent. President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. has earlier expressed concern over the risk of stagflation, but said that he is confident growth will improve in the second quarter and the second half of the year.</p>

<p>Despite weaker economic figures reported in recent weeks, an economist said that the Philippines is still far from reaching the stagflation state.</p>

Despite weaker economic figures reported in recent weeks, an economist said that the Philippines is still far from reaching the stagflation state.

Philippines still far from stagflation—economist

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Philippines still far from stagflation—economist

Jekki Pascual,

ABS-CBN News

Published May 20, 2026 03:12 PM PHT

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