Jauhn Etienne Villaruel

A view of the Makati skyline on August 24, 2022. George Calvelo, ABS-CBN News

Article (news)

Marilyn Cahatol

ABS-CBN News

<div><span class="fr-img-caption fr-fic fr-dib" style="width:960px"><span class="fr-img-wrap"><img src="https://od2-image-api.abs-cbn.com/prod/editorImage/176032614909620220824-building-skyline-construction-GC-26.jpg" style="width:960px" class="fr-fic fr-dib"/><span class="fr-inner" style="text-align:left">A view of the Makati skyline on August 24, 2022. George Calvelo, ABS-CBN News</span></span></span></div><p>MANILA — The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology on Monday said that the possibility of the &quot;Big One&quot; earthquake to strike Metro Manila increases as time moves closer to 2058. </p><p>Phivolcs Director Teresito Bacolcol, on ANC’s Headstart, explained that while it is impossible to predict the exact time the earthquake will strike the overpopulated Metro Manila, its estimate may be known based on its recurrence interval. </p><p>The &quot;Big One&quot; is the 7.2 magnitude earthquake predicted to bring catastrophic destruction in Metro Manila upon a big movement in the West Valley Fault, which traverses Quezon City, Marikina, Pasig, Makati, Taguig, and Muntinlupa, and also the provinces of Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, and Laguna. </p><div><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/ancx/culture/spotlight/05/02/19/should-you-be-afraid-of-the-big-one">How strong an earthquake will the &#x27;Big One&#x27; be? You need to sit down for the answer</a></div><p>The West Valley Fault’s last major movement was recorded 1658. Based on the lower boundary of its 400 to 600 years of reccurence interval, Bacolcol said its next movement may possibly happen earlier or later than 2058.</p><div><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/nation/2025/10/4/phivolcs-jica-eye-update-to-west-valley-fault-study-in-2026-1317">Phivolcs, JICA eye update to West Valley Fault study in 2026</a></div><p>It could also happen 600 years past 1658, which will be around the year 2258.</p><p>&quot;That means that as we get closer to 2058, the probability of this 7.2 recurring is tumataas,&quot; he said. </p><p>“Of course, may uncertainty yan, give or take several decades. It could happen earlier, that’s the reason why we&#x27;re saying that we&#x27;re right for the big one,” he added.</p><div><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/nation/2025/4/9/entire-luzon-must-prepare-for-the-big-one-says-ocd-1713">Entire Luzon must prepare for the &#x27;Big One&#x27;, says OCD</a></div><div> </div><div><strong>&#x27;EVERYTHING IS NORMAL&#x27;</strong></div><div><br/></div><p>Meanwhile, Bacolcol noted that it is always possible to feel successive or simultaneous earthquakes as the country has 180 active fault segments and six active trenches. </p><div><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/health-science/2025/10/12/-recent-quakes-unconnected-phivolcs-warns-vs-social-media-predictions-0839">‘Recent quakes unconnected’: Phivolcs warns vs social media predictions</a></div><p>In average, the country experiences 30 earthquakes a day, but most of these are only recorded by instruments and not felt by humans, said Bacolcol.</p><p>The strong earthquakes felt across the country, for instance, were all caused by different faults and trenches, he said. </p><p>The magnitude<a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/regions/2025/10/9/magnitude-4-8-earthquake-strikes-la-union-1055"> </a><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/regions/2025/10/9/magnitude-4-8-earthquake-strikes-la-union-1055">4.4 earthquake in La Union</a> was caused by the Philippine Fault, while the magnitude <a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/regions/2025/9/30/magnitude-6-7-earthquake-jolts-cebu-2216">6.9 quake in Cebu</a> was due to the Bogo Bay Fault. </p><p>Meanwhile, the magnitude<a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/regions/2025/10/11/magnitude-5-0-quake-shakes-zambales-1818"> 5.1 earthquake in Zambales </a>was because of the Manila Trench, while the magnitude <a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/regions/2025/10/10/powerful-quake-strikes-off-davao-oriental-0955">7.4 earthquake in Davao Oriental </a>was by the Philippine Trench. </p><p>&quot;Normal lang ito. It’s just that, maraming malalakas na lindol na naramdaman ng mga tao. But everything is normal,&quot; he said. </p><p>Bacolcol suggested the public to consult in the hazardhunter.ph to know the active faults, hazards and open areas where people can evacuate in a place in case an earthquake strikes. </p><div><br/></div><div><strong>RELATED VIDEO:</strong></div><div style="text-align:center"><iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/L0PFMUojj_w?si=78YgX6gynLSgwCMr" title="YouTube video player" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe><br/></div>

<p>The West Valley Fault’s last major movement was recorded 1658.</p>

The West Valley Fault’s last major movement was recorded 1658.

Possibility of 'Big One' quake in Metro Manila increases as 2058 approaches — Phivolcs

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Possibility of 'Big One' quake in Metro Manila increases as 2058 approaches — Phivolcs

Marilyn Cahatol,

ABS-CBN News

Published Oct 13, 2025 11:30 AM PHT

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The Big One

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