Geline Salac

'Normal' dry season expected, but rising El Niño risk could intensify habagat

Article (news)

redhotsun

Ariel Rojas

ABS-CBN News

Rising temperatures are beginning to be felt across the Philippines as the northeast monsoon or Amihan season nears its end.On March 1, PAGASA resumed the issuance of its heat index forecast.However, the weather bureau has yet to declare the end of Amihan and the start of the country’s warm and dry season.“Anytime ngayong Marso, posibleng ideklara ng PAGASA ang pagtatapos ng Amihan and also &#x27;yung simula ng ating tag-init,” Ana Liza Solis, chief of the Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section of PAGASA, told ABS-CBN News.(Anytime this March, PAGASA may declare the end of the Amihan season and the start of the warm and dry season.)The positioning of various weather systems around the country, especially the high pressure areas, and the rising temperatures are among the parameters PAGASA uses in assessing the transition.Since 2010, the onset of the dry season was typically announced on the third or fourth week of March. On three occasions, the dry season was declared only in April.Solis said this year’s dry season may be comparable to last year’s, especially coming off a weak La Niña episode, but the mercury may still hit 40 degrees Celsius.“May mga potential pa rin na medyo mainit ‘yung daytime temperature sa may Cagayan Valley area. Posibleng around April, May, mga around 40 degrees [Celsius] ‘yung nakikita natin na pinaka-extreme. But then hindi sya ‘yung average kundi at least one day or two consecutive days makakaranas ng ganung matataas na temperature.”(The daytime temperatures in Cagayan Valley may be potentially hotter and may reach around 40 degrees Celsius by April and May. It’s not the average but just for one or two consecutive days.)She added heat index values are likely to remain high but temperatures will not reach the record-breaking heat of 2024 when the dry season coincided with a strong El Niño episode.While this may be welcome news, state climatologists warned that the public should also pay closer attention to warming nighttime temperatures in the country.“In fact, base sa datos ng PAGASA, mas mataas ang trend ng increasing nighttime temperature or yung minimum temperature kumpara sa daytime temperature or yung maximum temperature,” Solis said.(In fact, based on PAGASA data, there is a higher trend of increasing nighttime or minimum temperature compared to the daytime or maximum temperature.)She added this could lead to serious implications in the energy and agriculture sectors but remains confident the water sector will be stable this dry season.<div>FADING LA NIÑA, RISING EL NIÑO RISK</div>Observations in the equatorial Pacific indicate that the current weak La Niña is decaying and may transition to ENSO-neutral conditions before May.“Anytime ngayong Marso o April, pwede tayong mag-terminate o magtapos ng La Niña episode. Sa ngayon ay malapit na ‘yung possibility na magkaroon ng at least ENSO-neutral condition, more than 60 percent at least up to May,” Solis said.(Anytime this March or April, we may announce the end of the La Niña episode.  There is more than a 60 percent chance of ENSO-neutral conditions by May.)However, climatologists around the world are warning against the increasing likelihood of an El Niño episode in the second half of the year, with the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimating a 50 to 60 percent chance of El Niño developing during the July to September 2026 season.The World Meteorological Organization also cited the potential for a “warming El Niño episode later this year” in an advisory issued Tuesday.PAGASA said it had seen the potential El Niño development this year as early as December.“Although napakalayo pa at mataas pa ang uncertainty, but then ‘yung mga models na tinitingnan natin na ginagamit ay nagpapakita, nagpapahiwatig na magkakaroon ng increasing chance ng El Niño this year,” Solis explained.(Although it’s still far out so the uncertainty remains high, the climate models that we use show an increasing chance of El Niño this year.)El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cold phases of the naturally occurring climate pattern El Niño-Southern Oscillation or ENSO. It manifests through shifting sea surface temperatures, wind speed and direction, and air pressure in the tropical Pacific Ocean.Neutral conditions mean the absence of El Niño and La Niña.<div>MORE INTENSE HABAGAT BUT FEWER STORMS</div>With the warming event expected in the second half of the year, the upcoming dry season will likely remain unaffected. However, the pre-developing El Niño may lead to a more intense southwest monsoon or Habagat season.“Bago dumating or during pre-developing El Niño, ‘yung possible nga na around August-September-October or July-August-September season, tumitindi yung Habagat season natin. Ibig sabihin, maaring makaranas tayo ng medyo mas maraming ulan sa panahon ng Habagat, maaaring dulot ng enhanced Habagat o ‘yung mga combined effects lalung-lalo na nung mga bagyong paparating.”(Before or during a pre-developing El Niño, which is likely during the July-August-September or August-September-October season, the Habagat season intensifies. This means we may experience more rains due to the enhancement of the Habagat or the combined effects of Habagat and tropical cyclones.)The looming El Niño could also mean fewer storms in the Philippines in the second part of the year.“But then may possibility na may mga intense na mga bagyo, maaaring typhoon or super typhoon category. ‘Yan ay prevalent kapag pre-developing or nandyan na ‘yung El Niño lalong-lalo na pagdating ng September, October, November.”(But there’s still the possibility of intense storms, typhoon or super typhoon strength, which are prevalent during pre-developing El Niño or in the months of September, October, and November.)Early forecasts suggest the warming could extend beyond 2026. Present projections, with high uncertainty, show that the potential El Niño may initially last through the first quarter of 2027.If it persists through the second quarter of 2027, it could trigger record-breaking heat during next year’s warm and dry season.“Hopefully hindi naman maging ganun but we need to keep monitoring ‘yung mga ganung possible na scenario,” Solis said.(Hopefully, it will not be the case, but we need to keep monitoring and be ready for those possible scenarios.)

Rising temperatures are beginning to be felt across the Philippines as the northeast monsoon or Amihan season nears its end.

Rising temperatures are beginning to be felt across the Philippines as the northeast monsoon or Amihan season nears its end.