Jamaine Punzalan

Guardians use sun protection against the hot weather as they fetch their children from a public school along Pedro Gil Street way in Manila on May 3, 2023. Jonathan Cellona, ABS-CBN News/File

Article (news)

HEAT INDEX

Deutsche Welle

<div><span class="fr-img-caption fr-fic fr-dib" style="width:960px;display:block" width="960"><span class="fr-img-wrap"><img src="https://od2-image-api.abs-cbn.com/prod/editorImage/178157395989420230503-heat-index-baseco-swim-JC-15.jpg" style="width:960px" class="fr-fic fr-dib" width="960"/><span class="fr-inner" style="text-align:left">Guardians use sun protection against the hot weather as they fetch their children from a public school along Pedro Gil Street way in Manila on May 3, 2023. Jonathan Cellona, ABS-CBN News/File</span></span></span></div><p>Southeast Asia is bracing for an extreme<a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/weather-traffic/2026/6/12/weather-pattern-el-nino-is-here-and-could-reach-historic-intensity-1013"> El Nino</a> weather pattern as households and governments in the region are struggling to respond to higher energy, transport and food bills linked to the Iran war.</p><p>The UN weather agency, the World Meteorological Organization, expects the El Nino conditions to emerge before August and continue until at least November. This means surface waters in large parts of the Pacific Ocean will warm up more than usual, and a disruption in the usual east-to-west wind pattern is likely to bring more heat to central and eastern Pacific.</p><p>Southeast Asia is entering the months when monsoon rains usually replenish water reservoirs, cool overheated cities and inundate the fields ahead of the next planting season. However, if the rains arrive late or are weaker than normal, farmers may delay planting, reduce acreage or switch away from water-intensive crops.</p><p>&quot;Southeast Asia&#x27;s agricultural sector is exceptionally vulnerable to a new El Nino shock, given that its two primary commodities, rice and palm oil, are highly concentrated and uniquely sensitive to climate anomalies,&quot; Jason Lee, chair of the Global Heat Health Information Network&#x27;s Southeast Asia Hub, told DW.</p><p>&quot;This extreme exposure means that what begins as a localized, farm-level shock can rapidly spill over into a broader, systemic food-price and inflation crisis across the region.&quot;</p><div><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/weather-traffic/2026/6/12/weather-pattern-el-nino-is-here-and-could-reach-historic-intensity-1013">Weather pattern El Nino is here and could reach historic intensity </a></div><div><strong>Rice, palm oil and the inflation risk</strong></div><p>For Southeast Asian nations, rice crops are the biggest political risk. It is the region&#x27;s staple food, closely tied to rural livelihoods and likely to trigger public anger if its prices rise.</p><p>Rice is likely to be the most affected staple crop due to reduced rainfall and increased heat stress, Paul Teng, a visiting senior fellow in the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute&#x27;s Climate Change in Southeast Asia Program, told DW.</p><p>&quot;In the rain-fed rice areas, there will likely be higher incidence of localized droughts and in the irrigated rice areas there will likely be water stress due to lower reservoir and irrigation levels,&quot; Teng said, noting that the most vulnerable countries are Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia and Cambodia.</p><p>The region could see a 2%–8% reduction in rice output compared with a normal year, with larger local losses in <a href="http://Drought hits Metro Manila, 25 provinces in May – PAGASA">drought-prone areas</a>, he added.</p><p>Palm oil is the other major concern, especially in Indonesia and Malaysia, which together account for around 85% of the world&#x27;s supply.</p><p>&quot;Palm oil is sensitive to the expected temperature rises, but unlike rice, the impacts may be felt six to 12 months later from reduced fresh fruit bunch formation and oil extraction rates,&quot; Teng said.</p><p>Fertilizer and gas costs have risen sharply due to the ongoing war in Iran, and an extreme El Nino would drive prices even higher, analysts have warned. This has also already led to higher food prices across the region.</p><p>Markets often react not only to shortages, but also to fear of shortages, pushing prices up before harvest losses are fully known, Lee noted.</p><p>&quot;This leaves central banks on high alert, forcing them to maintain elevated interest rates to combat sticky, food-driven inflation at the exact moment that regional businesses face higher borrowing costs and government budgets are already strained by needed subsidies and soaring energy bills,&quot; he added. </p><div><strong>Economic storms brewing</strong></div><p>Several Southeast Asian governments have already turned to coal to compensate for energy shortages and introduced subsidies on food and basic services.</p><p>And the Asian Development Bank has cut its 2026 growth forecast for developing Asia and the Pacific from 5.1% to 4.7%, with much of the blame placed on the Iran war.</p><div><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/weather-traffic/2026/6/15/pagasa-urges-public-to-prepare-for-onset-of-el-ni-o-1813">PAGASA urges public to prepare for El Niño</a></div><p><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/business/2026/6/6/bsp-still-under-pressure-despite-surprise-inflation-slowdown-2252">Inflation in the Philippines </a>remained above target in May at 6.8%, while Vietnam&#x27;s annual inflation rate rose to 5.6%. Indonesia&#x27;s headline rate is lower, but a 32% rise in some non-subsidized fuels has added to cost-of-living concerns and put pressure on subsidies.</p><p>The economic impact is also not likely to stop at farms or dinner tables. Temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) would also hit the region&#x27;s vital tourism sector.</p><p>A dry spell could also ignite agricultural and peatland fires in haze-producing hot spots like northern Thailand and the Indonesian territories of Sumatra and Kalimantan.</p><p>&quot;A big El Nino will increase the likelihood of serious transboundary haze. This will increase hardship among the populations, where public health risks are heightened among other societal issues,&quot; Helena Varkkey, associate professor of political ecology at Universiti Malaya, told DW.</p><p>Haze also tends to test regional diplomacy. Governments are often reluctant to restrict plantation activity too aggressively when farmers and companies are already under pressure from high input costs.</p><p>&quot;Similar to when the COVID-19 pandemic coincided with haze events, governments may have a hard time balancing between economic and social priorities,&quot; Varkkey added.</p><div><em><a href="https://www.dw.com/en/el-nino-threatens-livelihoods-in-southeast-asia/a-77559356?maca=en-VAS_ENG_ABS-CBN_Langtext-42381-xml-media"><img src="https://od2-image-api.abs-cbn.com/prod/editorImage/1774855555426dw-dark-blue-4c_page-0001.jpg" style="width:69px !important;height:50px" class="fr-fic fr-dib fr-fil"/></a></em></div><div><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/weather-traffic/2026/5/22/something-coming-what-scientists-know-about-a-potential-super-el-nino-1151">Something coming: What scientists know about a potential &#x27;super&#x27; El Nino </a><br/><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/weather-traffic/2026/6/1/ph-dams-prepared-for-el-ni-o-says-nia-1546">PH dams prepared for El Niño, says NIA </a><br/><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/weather-traffic/2026/5/26/drought-hits-metro-manila-25-provinces-in-may-pagasa-1510">Drought hits Metro Manila, 25 provinces in May – PAGASA </a></div><div><span class="fr-video fr-deletable fr-fvc fr-dvb fr-draggable" contenteditable="false" draggable="true"><iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/uZ39RTMSPsI?&amp;wmode=opaque&amp;rel=0" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" class="fr-draggable"></iframe></span><span class="fr-video fr-deletable fr-fvc fr-dvb fr-draggable" contenteditable="false" draggable="true"><iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/l5XEKekJH30?&amp;wmode=opaque&amp;rel=0" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" class="fr-draggable"></iframe></span><br/></div>

<p>Hotter, drier weather is impeding rice and palm-oil production as households across Southeast Asia struggle with higher fuel, food and transport costs.</p>

Hotter, drier weather is impeding rice and palm-oil production as households across Southeast Asia struggle with higher fuel, food and transport costs.

El Nino threatens livelihoods in Southeast Asia

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El Nino threatens livelihoods in Southeast Asia

Deutsche Welle,

David Hutt

Published June 16, 2026 09:45 AM PHT

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