Jonathan Frederic De Santos

Guardians use sun protection against the hot weather as they fetch their children from a public school along Pedro Gil Street way in Manila on May 3, 2023. Jonathan Cellona, ABS-CBN News/File

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Ariel Rojas

ABS-CBN News

MANILA — It is now more than 60 percent likely that the ongoing El Niño will intensify in the next few months and become very strong by the last quarter of the year, according to climate model projections cited by PAGASA.The weather bureau said there is currently a 69-percent likelihood of a strong El Niño developing during the August-September-October season and a 62-percent possibility of it intensifying further into a very strong event by the final quarter of the year.“So parang nakikita natin na andito yung possible peak ng El Niño… up to first quarter of 2027,” PAGASA Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section Chief Ana Liza Solid said during a climate forum on Wednesday.(The peak of El Niño may happen during the last quarter of the year up to the first quarter of 2027.)The prevailing El Niño may persist through the early part of 2027.<div><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/world/2026/6/24/latest-developments-in-europe-s-heatwave-1438">Latest developments in Europe&#x27;s heatwave </a></div>An El Niño episode is classified as strong when the sea surface temperatures in central and eastern Pacific are at least 1.5°C above than normal, and very strong when anomalies exceed 2.0°C.A very strong El Niño episode is also referred to as &quot;super&quot; El Niño. In the past 50 years, only three such events have occurred: 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and 2015-2016.PAGASA declared the onset of El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean on June 9.El Niño is the warm phase of a naturally occurring climate pattern called El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is characterized by shifting wind speed and direction, sea surface temperatures, and atmospheric pressure across the equatorial Pacific.During El Niño, the trade winds or easterlies weaken, allowing the warm Pacific waters to drift eastward. This causes tropical cyclones forming farther from Asia, giving them more time over open waters to intensify.While Southeast Asia and Australia usually experience reduced rainfall during El Niño, above-normal precipitation is often observed in parts of East Asia, southeastern United States, and other regions.In the Philippines, the overlap of El Niño and the southwest monsoon or habagat can lead to a wetter rainy season.State climatologists forecast near-normal rainfall over much of the country from July to September, with above-normal precipitation likely over parts of Northern and Central Luzon in July and August.Rainfall is expected to drop below normal beginning October, with Luzon potentially experiencing more than 60 percent rainfall reduction by November and December.Despite the projected rainfall decline at the end of the year, PAGASA is not yet forecasting meteorological drought in any province.<div><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/health-science/2026/6/24/angat-dam-may-reach-critical-low-level-by-end-of-june-pagasa-1402">Angat Dam may reach critical low level by end of June — PAGASA </a></div>By the end of November, 45 provinces in Luzon, Western and Eastern Visayas, and Caraga may experience dry conditions, while Laguna, Batangas, Marinduque, Camarines Sur, and Albay may have dry spell.By the end of December, the number of provinces under dry spell may increase to 51, while another 30 could experience dry conditions.Meteorological drought occurs when rainfall is reduced by more than 60 percent rainfall reduction for three consecutive months, or 21 to 60 percent for five consecutive months.A rainfall reduction of 21 to 60 percent may result in dry conditions if it persists for two months and a dry spell if it lasts for three consecutive months.PAGASA also projects nine to 13 tropical cyclones inside the Philippine area of responsibility during the second half of 2026, although activity is expected to decline during the last quarter.One or two tropical cyclones may form inside or enter the PAR in each of the months of October, November, and December.“Mas maraming typhoon at super typhoon category during the latter part of the year,” Solis explained.(Tropical cyclones tend to intensify into typhoon and super typhoon category during the latter part of the year.)With below-normal rainfall expected during the last quarter, the country may also experience a drier and slightly warmer northeast monsoon season compared with the previous year.Should El Niño persist through the first half of 2027, a hotter and drier warm and dry season is also likely.“Hindi po namin kayo tinatakot but eto po ‘yung mga possible or potential na mangyari so we need to be prepared as early as now,” Solis clarified.(We are not trying to scare you. These are just some of the possible scenarios that could happen, so we need to prepare as early as now.)

It is now more than 60 percent likely that the ongoing El Niño will intensify in the next few months and become very strong by the last quarter of the year, according to climate model projections cited by PAGASA.

It is now more than 60 percent likely that the ongoing El Niño will intensify in the next few months and become very strong by the last quarter of the year, according to climate model projections cited by PAGASA.

PAGASA: More than 60% chance of ‘super’ El Niño by late 2026

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PAGASA: More than 60% chance of ‘super’ El Niño by late 2026

Ariel Rojas,

ABS-CBN News

Published June 25, 2026 09:30 PM PHT

Read More:

El Niño

super El Niño

PAGASA

dry spell

drought

habagat

bagyo

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