Jauhn Etienne Villaruel

Article (news)

Raphael Bosano

ABS-CBN News

<div><span class="fr-img-caption fr-fic fr-dib" style="width:960px;display:block" width="960"><span class="fr-img-wrap"><img src="https://od2-image-api.abs-cbn.com/prod/editorImage/178428022091920230901-Typhoon Weather-MT-20.jpg" style="width:960px" class="fr-fic fr-dib" width="960"/><span class="fr-inner" style="text-align:left">Residents collect garbage as rough waves and strong winds from several weather disturbances continue to affect the country on September 1, 2023. <em>Maria Tan ABS-CBN News/File</em></span></span></span></div><p>MANILA — Filipinos living in communities vulnerable to typhoons and other weather-related hazards may soon receive more than just forecasts of where a storm is headed—they will also know what its likely impacts will be and what actions they should take to avoid disasters.</p><p>The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) recently launched its Multi-hazard Impact-based Forecasting and Early Warning System (MHIBFEWS), a new forecasting product designed to translate weather information into impact-focused advisories that can help communities prepare for effects of severe weather. </p><p>Under the system, PAGASA will issue impact-based advisories as early as three days before a tropical cyclone makes landfall, providing national and local governments, emergency responders, and the public with information on the potential effects of an approaching weather disturbance.</p><p>Speaking to ABS-CBN News, MHIBFEWS National Project Director Edward Cajucom said the new system marks a shift from simply forecasting weather conditions to communicating their likely consequences on people and communities. </p><div><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/health-science/2026/7/17/new-science-report-could-boost-climate-suits-against-oil-giants-1049"><strong>New science report could boost climate suits against oil giants</strong></a></div><p>”We’re telling the public not just information about the weather. Basically, we’re informing not just what the weather will be, but what the weather will do,&quot; he said.</p><div><br/></div><div><strong>BEYOND WEATHER FORECASTING</strong></div><div><span class="fr-img-caption fr-fic fr-dib" style="width:960px;display:block" width="960"><span class="fr-img-wrap"><img src="https://od2-image-api.abs-cbn.com/prod/editorImage/178428056140620210726-basco-monsoon-aftermath-weather-GC-3414.jpg" style="width:960px" class="fr-fic fr-dib" width="960"/><span class="fr-inner" style="text-align:left">Children play along the flooded shores of Pasig river, near its mouth exiting to Manila Bay in Baseco Compound, Manila on July 26, 2021. <em>George Calvelo, ABS-CBN News/File</em><br/></span></span></span></div><p>Traditional tropical cyclone forecasts issued by PAGASA primarily describe a storm&#x27;s current location, intensity, movement and projected track. These forecasts are released twice daily and are accompanied by other hazard-specific products like rainfall warnings when heavy precipitation is expected.</p><p>While these forecasts remain essential, they often require local officials and residents to interpret how the expected weather conditions could affect their communities. </p><p>The new impact-based forecasting system aims to bridge that gap by translating meteorological data into practical information that answers questions like which communities are likely to experience destructive winds; which areas face flooding, storm surges or landslides; and which sectors are most at risk.</p><p>Unlike traditional forecasts, impact-based forecasts are released daily at 11 a.m. and provide hazard-specific assessments for severe wind, flooding, storm surges and landslides. </p><p>The advisories combine weather forecasts with information on an area&#x27;s exposure and vulnerability, allowing PAGASA to estimate the likely impacts rather than simply the expected weather conditions.</p><div><br/></div><div><strong>COLOR-CODED WARNINGS FOR FASTER DECISIONS</strong></div><div><span class="fr-img-caption fr-fic fr-dib" style="width:960px;display:block" width="960"><span class="fr-img-wrap"><img src="https://od2-image-api.abs-cbn.com/prod/editorImage/178428062564820210722-flood-rain-mandaluyong-JC-6484.jpg" style="width:960px" class="fr-fic fr-dib" width="960"/><span class="fr-inner" style="text-align:left">Commuters pass through a flooded Boni Avenue in Mandaluyong on July 22, 2021. <em>George Calvelo, ABS-CBN News/File</em></span></span></span></div><p>The system uses graphics, maps and visual risk indicators to make forecasts easier to understand for both decision-makers and the public.</p><p>Potential impacts are classified into four levels; minimal (green), minor (yellow), significant (orange) and severe (red). Each advisory also includes recommended actions tailored to the expected level of risk, enabling local government units, disaster managers and emergency responders to prepare earlier and allocate resources more efficiently. </p><div><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/weather-traffic/2026/7/7/el-nino-is-expected-to-break-records-top-expert-1950"><strong>El Niño is expected &#x27;to break records&#x27;: top expert </strong></a> </div><p>According to Cajucom, the system is intended to strengthen disaster preparedness by helping authorities shift from reactive emergency response to proactive risk management.</p><div><br/></div><div><strong>INFORMATION FOR CRITICAL SECTORS </strong></div><div><span class="fr-img-caption fr-fic fr-dib" style="width:960px;display:block" width="960"><span class="fr-img-wrap"><img src="https://od2-image-api.abs-cbn.com/prod/editorImage/178428068743020250926-weather-sts-opong-mabini-waves-JC4017.jpg" style="width:960px" class="fr-fic fr-dib" width="960"/><span class="fr-inner" style="text-align:left">Big waves crash against the seawalls amid strong winds and rain brought by Severe Tropical Storm Opong in Mabini, Batangas, on September 26, 2025.<em> Jonathan Cellona, ABS-CBN News/File</em></span></span></span></div><p>Beyond local governments, the forecasts are also expected to benefit sectors whose operations are heavily affected by extreme weather.</p><p>The advisories identify possible impacts on housing, health services, utilities, transportation and agriculture, allowing agencies and businesses to anticipate disruptions, protect critical infrastructure and prepare contingency measures before hazardous weather occurs.</p><p>By providing impact-focused information several days in advance, PAGASA hopes to improve coordination among government agencies and reduce the risks to lives and livelihoods during severe weather events.</p><p>At present, impact-based forecasts for severe winds are already available through PAGASA&#x27;s website. </p><p>The state weather bureau said forecasts covering other hazards like flooding, storm surges and landslides will be rolled out in the coming months as the Multi-hazard Impact-based Forecasting and Early Warning System is fully implemented nationwide.</p><div>  </div><div><strong>RELATED VIDEOS</strong></div><div><strong><span class="fr-video fr-deletable fr-fvc fr-dvb fr-draggable" contenteditable="false" draggable="true"><iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/y19WEesgy2k?&amp;wmode=opaque&amp;rel=0" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" class="fr-draggable"></iframe></span></strong><span class="fr-video fr-deletable fr-fvc fr-dvb fr-draggable" contenteditable="false" draggable="true"><iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/fIZNVwLs8vk?&amp;wmode=opaque&amp;rel=0" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" class="fr-draggable"></iframe></span><br/></div>

<p>Filipinos living in communities vulnerable to typhoons and other weather-related hazards may soon receive more than just forecasts of where a storm is headed—they will also know what its likely impacts will be and what actions they should take to avoid disasters.</p>

Filipinos living in communities vulnerable to typhoons and other weather-related hazards may soon receive more than just forecasts of where a storm is headed—they will also know what its likely impacts will be and what actions they should take to avoid disasters.

More than just numbers: How PAGASA hopes to lessen devastation through new forecasting system

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More than just numbers: How PAGASA hopes to lessen devastation through new forecasting system

Raphael Bosano,

ABS-CBN News

Published July 17, 2026 05:35 PM PHT

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Multi-hazard Impact-Based Forecasting and Early Warning System

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