Daven Tamayo

Up to 4 tropical cyclones may enter PAR in August, PAGASA says

Article (news)

Francis Orcio

ABS-CBN News

MANILA — Up to four tropical cyclones may form within or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in August even as the Philippines moves closer to a potentially very strong El Niño event that state meteorologists describe as unprecedented due to the rapid warming of the Pacific Ocean.PAGASA said two to four tropical cyclones are forecast to develop within or enter PAR in August, followed by two to three in September, one to two each in October, November and December, and zero to one in January 2027.According to PAGASA&#x27;s latest climate outlook, fewer tropical cyclones are expected in the coming months as El Niño strengthens. However, storms that do develop may still intensify into typhoons or even super typhoons.Chief of PAGASA&#x27;s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section Ana Liza Solis said the likelihood of a very strong El Niño has increased significantly and may persist until the first half of 2027.&quot;Ngayon pong August update, mas lumalaki na po iyopng chance na very strong by October, November, December around 81%. And strong El Niño, July to November, possible po iyong strong El Niño, which is around 57%. At ito po iyong sinasabi natin, kahit po sa amin sa pag-monitor, very unprecedented po. Ang bilis ng warming,&quot; Solis explained.She warned that the prolonged El Niño could reduce rainfall during the country&#x27;s warm and dry season, particularly as tropical cyclones become less effective in replenishing water supply later in the year.Solis cited Angat Dam, the country&#x27;s primary water source for Metro Manila, as an area of concern, noting that recent tropical cyclones have contributed little to its recovery because stronger winds associated with recurving storms limited rainfall over the watershed.&quot;Tatawid tayo doon sa warm and dry season months na kung saan, iyon nga po iyong ating problema na kapag po kaunti na iyong ulan natin galing sa habagat at iyong pong mga landfalling and crossing na tropical cyclone pagdating na October, November, ay hindi na siya rain effective dahil mas malakas iyong hangin. Hindi siya masyadong nag-contribute ng tubig doon sa Angat Dam, na usually, inaasahan po natin iyong recovery ng Angat Dam mula ngayong July hanggang October-November,&quot; she said.PAGASA said rainfall across most parts of the country is expected to remain near normal in August, although above-normal rainfall is likely over portions of western Luzon due to the southwest monsoon, while some areas of Southern Luzon, the Visayas and Mindanao may experience below-normal rainfall.In September, below-normal rainfall is forecast across much of Luzon, while eastern Visayas and Mindanao may receive above-normal rainfall.Luzon is expected to continue experiencing below-normal rainfall in October, before way below-normal to below-normal rainfall becomes more widespread nationwide in November.By December, above-normal rainfall is forecast over much of Luzon, while below-normal rainfall is expected across many parts of the Visayas and Mindanao. PAGASA said the country may again experience way below-normal to below-normal rainfall by January 2027.However, Solis emphasized that rainfall outlooks should be interpreted relative to an area&#x27;s normal rainfall and should not automatically be understood as indications of heavy rains or severe drought.&quot;Hindi nangangahulugan na pagkadami-daming ulan nito, dahil sabi nga po natin, depende sa normal. Kapag December po, normally, dry season dito sa lugar na ito. Ang ibig sabihin, less than 50 millimeters of rain lang ang kanyang ulan. Ngayon, kung ito ay predicted natin na 100 millimeters of rain, kaunti pa rin iyon, pero above normal na po siya. Kasi nga, maliit lang iyong normal niyang ulan. Kaya depende po iyon sa normal rainfall ng ating ulan,&quot; Solis explained.She also stressed that El Niño does not necessarily mean drought, as several weather systems, including the southwest monsoon, tropical cyclones, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, shear line and frontal systems, can still bring rainfall to the country.PAGASA warned that prolonged meteorological dry spell or drought could eventually affect agriculture, water resources and, if sustained for more than nine months, broader socioeconomic sectors.To help communities prepare, PAGASA has made available digital tools that provide six-month drought outlooks, meteorological drought monitoring, a 10-day weather forecast for farmers, and climate information platforms jointly developed with the Department of Agriculture and international partners.Solis urged the public to begin conserving water and electricity as the country prepares for the possible impacts of a prolonged and very strong El Niño.

Up to four tropical cyclones may form within or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in August even as the Philippines moves closer to a potentially very strong El Niño event that state meteorologists describe as unprecedented due to the rapid warming of the Pacific Ocean.

Up to four tropical cyclones may form within or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in August even as the Philippines moves closer to a potentially very strong El Niño event that state meteorologists describe as unprecedented due to the rapid warming of the Pacific Ocean.