Jamaine Punzalan

Motorists line up at a gasoline station along Philcoa in Diliman, Quezon City, March 6, 2026. Maria Tan, ABS-CBN News

Article (news)

OIL PRICE HIKE

Agence France-Presse

<div><span class="fr-img-caption fr-fic fr-dib" style="width:960px;display:block" width="960"><span class="fr-img-wrap"><img src="https://od2-image-api.abs-cbn.com/prod/editorImage/178485490256620260306-oil-price-hike-refueling-MT2.jpg" style="width:960px" class="fr-fic fr-dib" width="960"/><span class="fr-inner" style="text-align:left">Motorists line up at a gasoline station along Philcoa in Diliman, Quezon City, March 6, 2026. Maria Tan, ABS-CBN News</span></span></span></div><p><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/world/2026/7/24/oil-soars-above-100-as-middle-east-fears-grow-0735">Brent crude went back over $100 a barrel </a>Thursday for the first time since May, as the <a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/world/2026/7/24/us-vows-to-punish-iran-after-houthis-strike-tankers-0758">conflict in the Middle East intensified.</a></p><p>This time however, the impact on the world economy could be greater given the conflict shows no sign of ending and reserves have already been partially been drawn down.</p><div><br/></div><div><strong>NOT THE FIRST TIME</strong></div><div><br/></div><p>The last time Brent crude -- the benchmark international oil contact -- broke above $100 a barrel was in March 12 during the first stage or the US-Israeli war on Iran.</p><p>The last time before that was when Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.</p><p>This latest price surge has been fuelled in part by attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea by pro-Iranian Houthi rebel forces in Yemen, which would expand the zone of conflict and could cut off the export of millions of barrels of oil.</p><div><a href="https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/world/2026/7/24/us-vows-to-punish-iran-after-houthis-strike-tankers-0758">US vows to punish Iran after Houthis strike tankers</a></div><p>In normal circumstances, the world economy consumes a little over 100 million barrels of oil daily.</p><p>In mid-July, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that world production was below pre-war levels by around 9.4 million barrels a day.</p><div><br/></div><div><strong>HIGHER STAKES</strong></div><div><br/></div><p>The threat to the Red Sea raises the stakes.</p><p>It is the alternative route that Saudi Arabia has been using since the Strait of Hormuz was closed to export its oil.</p><p>After the war began it stepped up shipments via pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, which has allowed it export some three quarters of its pre-war level.</p><p>&quot;This workaround is now facing headwinds as the blockade and the threat of attacks on ships will make passage through the Red Sea less viable in the near-term,&quot; said Maya Senussi of economic advisory firm Oxford Economics.</p><p>Oxford Economics fears that if both the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz were effectively closed to traffic, the price of oil could eventually pass $160 a barrel.</p><p>&quot;Much of the world&#x27;s spare production capacity has already been used, while strategic and commercial oil inventories are lower than when the war began, leaving the market with fewer buffers against a prolonged supply disruption,&quot; said Janiv Shah, vice president of the Rysted Energy consultancy.</p><p>That leaves the markets with less room for manoeuvre, he pointed out.</p><p>On Tuesday, the IEA warned that the renewed fighting in the Middle East was increasing concerns over energy supplies.</p><div><br/></div><div><strong>CUSHIONING FACTORS</strong></div><div><br/></div><p>But there were still cushioning factors, it added.</p><p>It cited increased exports from several countries and Saudi and United Arab Emirates oil reaching markets by alternative routes.</p><p>Producers including the Brazil, Kazakhstan, United States and Venezuela were increasing their production, and China was trying to cut its imports, it added.</p><p>And around 30 IEA countries had between more than a billion barrels of oil in reserve.</p><p>Earlier this month the Kpler consultancy calculated there was a record 1.35 billion barrels of &quot;oil on water&quot; -- product already at sea.</p><p>That helps limit further crude oil prices rises, it argued.</p><p>The head of French oil giant TotalEnergies was similarly phlegmatic when he announced the company&#x27;s second quarter results Thursday.</p><p>&quot;We have no problem with stocks to supply our refineries,&quot; he said.</p><div><br/></div><div><strong>RISKS OF AN EXTENDED CONFLICT</strong></div><div><br/></div><p>European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde nevertheless expressed alarm Thursday at the Houthi attack on a Saudi vessel in the Red Sea.</p><p>The situation in the Red Sea &quot;is clearly going to have an impact and is having an impact&quot;, she said. &quot;We can see that on the price of Brent as it evolves almost by the hour.&quot;</p><p>And some of the bank&#x27;s governors had already mooted a possible rates hike, she added.</p><p>Inflationary pressure could encourage central banks to maintain high rates or even raise them.</p><p>Energy costs, not just of oil but also of gas in winter, hit both production and consumption and have a knock-on effect on economic growth.</p>

<p>Brent crude went back over $100 a barrel Thursday for the first time since May, as the conflict in the Middle East intensified.</p>

Brent crude went back over $100 a barrel Thursday for the first time since May, as the conflict in the Middle East intensified.

Oil passes $100 a barrel again: Why it's more serious this time

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Oil passes $100 a barrel again: Why it's more serious this time

Agence France-Presse

Published July 24, 2026 09:06 AM PHT

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Updated July 24, 2026 11:49 AM PHT

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