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Crossing the political Rubicon: Relatives running together and the proposed alliance between Marcos and the LP

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Edmund Tayao

I’m not sure if what I mentioned in the “Kapihan sa Manila Hotel” was heard, that Sen. Risa Hontiveros after two days declared in the media she’s not in favor of an alliance between the Liberal Party and the administration party. But the suggestion to forge this alliance is a point in Philippine political history that we should give serious thought. To my mind it raises a lot of questions and at the same time opens up so many possibilities.I may probably just be an optimist. The idea is — to be frank and specific about it — “carpetbaggerish”.  I say carpetbaggerish as anyone who would consider such idea is not necessarily a carpetbagger but the implication of actually putting it to action has the effect of opportunism. Opportunism because one’s knee-jerk reaction is to dismiss it as plain and simple intending and wanting to win the elections regardless of means and its implications.  It may also appear to be simplistic as it appears just intended to counter the announcement of the Dutertes dominating the Senate and, ultimately, Vice President Sara Duterte becoming president in time. There is so much more in this proposal however.If one looks closely at the kind of politics we have, one that’s plain and simple about personalities, pursuing this strange alliance is but logical. Carpetbagger or not, it is an option that can and should be considered as the dynamics of our political setup, being not a system, simply calls for it. <div style="margin-bottom:0px;line-height:normal"><a href="https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/2024/7/2/opposition-still-gathering-strength-for-midterm-presidential-polls-hontiveros-919">READ: Opposition still gathering strength for midterm, presidential polls — Hontiveros</a></div>In a political setup where there are no real political parties, decisions, especially major strategic decisions can only be undertaken by and for political personalities.There may be considerations of issues and therefore positions on programs, but that’s only ancillary to the personalities and not the paramount consideration.In fact, it’s amusing how conflicting political groups squabble over the question of which is the opposition party.  Again, we don’t have real political parties, to even raise the question which is the real opposition party is an oxymoron, and to argue which one is, is to argue which one is non-existent.  We simply have to do a cursory audit of our political leaders and their purported political parties.How many of those, supposedly belonging to the Liberal Party and or Partido Demokratiko Pilipino are actually in the minority  or are in the opposition in terms of policy pronouncements or even of being critical of the administration?And this has been the case in most if not all of the previous administrations.  Leaders of a political party identify themselves to be opposition, but individual members are cooperative of the administration and even choose to be with the majority bloc in the legislature.So, one can argue as vigorously as they like that theirs is the “real” opposition party because theirs is the only one that has positions on critical issues, has been espousing key principles and that therefore the ones advocating for good governance. <div style="margin-bottom:0px;line-height:normal"><a href="https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/2024/7/1/vp-sara-duterte-shuns-opposition-leader-tag-925">RELATED: VP Sara Duterte shuns ‘opposition leader’ role</a></div>But which political party is not?  Every political party declares, especially in their registration and in every campaign, that they stand for good governance and that they are bound by principles; the very reason why every political party and personality always campaign to be “maka-bayan, maka-kalikasan, maka-diyos” and so many other vernacular sayings declaring to the public they are deserving and that they will make good leaders.Every political party would often have a stand on important issues.  Whether or not they act and vote collectively however, is an entirely different question.  During elections itself you could very well find something that is unique in the Philippines: Members of the same party running against each other, especially at the local level. More importantly, which political party does not have or did not have members accused of indiscretions? Still, there are distinguishing characters of political parties in the country.  Characters, not characteristics, because parties are distinguished by their key or leading members and how these leading members made their name in the country’s history, which side they were in critical political turning points. In this sense, the proposed alliance between the administration party led by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and the Liberal Party, very much identified with the name Aquino, is strange as these names were on opposing sides in the EDSA revolution.<div style="margin-bottom:0px;line-height:normal"><iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/zjNaaPBSHn8?&amp;wmode=opaque&amp;rel=0" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" class="fr-draggable"></iframe></div>Then again, former President Rodrigo Duterte remains popular.  This we have determined when we conducted a nationwide focused group discussions at PEERS.  The FGD determined people’s political preferences asking them especially what they think of leading political personalities today, including what they see as the critical issues that leaders should be acting on.The results suggest that people listen to what Duterte says except that this attentiveness is qualified depending on what he says. If Duterte endorses candidates, for example, they will consider it, but they will still assess the candidates individually and thus choose accordingly. If this is the case, the advantage of the former president’s endorsement is that the public will take a look at the candidate, it is up to the candidate to convert that awareness into support.The respondents also considered Duterte’s criticisms or Marcos important and that the latter should answer issues raised “as much possible”.  But the respondents also think the former president has an agenda in raising the issues. Noting that issues raised are politically motivated, the respondents may find it relevant to be addressed for their own benefit; that they will be better able to choose who between them they should throw their support to. Whether or not issues raised by the former president impacts on the capacity of the incumbent seems entirely something else.What we can gather from this is that the name Duterte still carries weight. There has to be a strategy therefore that can and should counter this weight and this is something other political groups are considering. In view of the decimation of the Liberal Party during the previous administration, not only failing to win even a single seat in the Senate in the 2019 midterm elections but most especially losing much of its overall significance politically, it is the most interested group to subdue the Dutertes. It is then but expected that the group should intently look for a strategy to accomplish this.<div style="margin-bottom:0px;line-height:normal"><a href="https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/2024/7/1/zubiri-bloc-balks-at-joining-minority-after-his-ouster-as-senate-president-1335">READ: Zubiri bloc balks at joining minority after his ouster as Senate president</a></div>Conversely, the administration is just halfway through its tenure and would have to remain in control, especially the legislature if it is to remain effective. The Duterte threat to take control of the Senate surely poses a problem requiring a counter-strategy.It is thus logical for the Liberal Party and the administration to join forces to prevent the Dutertes from winning a significant number of seats in the Senate.This is not a simple proposition though given the “character” of the political parties. LP is very much associated with the name Aquino, the very name noted in history as anti-Marcos.  The alliance is logical given the context of our political setup but the implications are considerable.For the LP to consider being an ally of the administration is to declare that it is willing to forego the significance of the EDSArevolution. In effect, the party will be contradicting itself. Insomuch as our politics is ultimately a contest between personalities, names carry weight as events and actions in history are attributed to them.  Note especially that in the last presidential election, the Liberals made significant use of the EDSA revolution, insisting that electing the son and namesake is giving possibility to another dictatorship.Looking back, Duterte cancelled the relevance of the LP by declaring that it has not been able to live up to its promise of change.  EDSA happened as change was needed, but change never happened. There was no change in the way we conducted politics, it remained and became more and more personalistic.  There was no change in the way government is run, still subject to politics and partisanship, even more than ever. To ally with the administration is to accept that all these are true.  If this is a correct assessment, the likelihood of winning might not even be true either.  The political base of the LP has been significantly lessened. Contradicting itself through an alliance with the administration might lead to the complete extermination of whatever is left of its base.If done right, however, it might lead to something good. If the stalwarts of the Liberal Party and the administration come to an agreement, it should be to the effect that they are setting aside personal differences, even historical feuds and are making an effort to transcend personality politics and usher in a more programmatic brand of politics. It is a long shot, no doubt, but if actions are proven to be consistent with the stated political direction, it will not only be good for the alliance but also for the country. Finally, there is a possibility to graduate from this rather archaic personalistic politics.This is feasible only if both political groups agree to set aside their conflicting narratives.  For the administration to reflect objectively on the accomplishments, failures and even indiscretions of the first Marcos presidency.  The same should be done by the Liberal Party: Reconcile with the past, including the failures of the previous Aquino administrations. Together, both political groups should revisit EDSA and find common ground. This can be done not necessarily by completely doing away with their individual narratives, but managing one that one starts where the other one ends. This will even lead to a more nuanced albeit true narrative of the country’s history before, during and after EDSA.  EDSA in the end will be a unifying narrative as it is a pivotal point in history.To the contrary, Vice President Duterte declared just recently that her brothers and father, the former president, will all be running for the Senate next year. This declaration for some is a trial balloon as the former president has been known to resort to in his bid to be president and even while he was president.  If the public responds favorably, they will likely proceed. Otherwise, of course, they will not run simultaneously. Still, the declaration has been made.  And it is but consistent with many political families dominating and wanting to dominate the Senate. The Senate in fact is becoming the chamber where membership is by being with a political family.<div style="margin-bottom:0px;line-height:normal"><a href="https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/2024/6/26/potential-senate-run-for-dutertes-highlight-dynastic-politics-1008">READ: Potential Senate run for Dutertes highlights dynastic politics</a></div>It is not only the Dutertes who are expected to field relatives to the Senate election. The popular Tulfo brothers are expected to also run together.  A number will be fielding relatives as well to fill the seats that they will be vacating. The daughter of Sen. Cynthia Villar is expected to run in her place and, if she wins, will be at the Senate with her brother Mark.  Outgoing Sen. Aquilino “Koko” Pimentel III will be fielding his wife. Sen. Pia Cayetano is expected to run for reelection and thus remain with her brother Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano in the Senate.  Makati Mayor Abby Binay on the other hand might run to fill the seat that her sister Senator Nancy will be vacating.Basically, what this midterm election seems to show is that we are reaching the apogee of personalistic politics and the Senate becoming the very epitome of which.  If the administration and the Liberal Party are able to forge something countering this, it will not only impact on their chances of winning but will also set a different standard for Philippine politics.Those who will remain on the same brand and style of politics might be surprised that the voters this time around will look elsewhere.  Delicadeza remains an important trait of the Filipino. If there only one or two relatives are running, it could still be acceptable.  But relatives running together as the dominant theme is something else entirely and can be seen as plain and simple opportunistic; persistently and narrowly self-interested.And for the people to reflect and find it distasteful is not impossible.  Again, as I have always maintained, there is no such thing as “bobotante” or voters who do not think and simply go for anyone popular.  That may appear to be true only because the choices given them have always been limited and thus the instinctive option is to vote for anyone popular.If we are to look at how the people have been electing senators since 1989, it will reveal that every election, voters chose following a common theme or consideration.  Those who made their names in the EDSA revolution dominated the elections in 1989 and 1992.  In 1995, the voters started voting for artists, culminating in the 1998 election of Erap Estrada to the presidency.By 2001, the same popular personalities began losing their posts and instead those who made their name in military service, especially being popular in failed coup attempts, were elected by the voting public. Subsequent elections voted into office businessmen, popular local officials and those with other backgrounds.If the unlikely alliance between the administration and the LP pushes through and champions a different brand of politics; one that is more programmatic, that is insisting on doing away with personality politics, then we might see yet again a different trend.

If one looks closely at the kind of politics we have, one that’s plain and simple about personalities, pursuing this strange alliance is but logical.

If one looks closely at the kind of politics we have, one that’s plain and simple about personalities, pursuing this strange alliance is but logical.